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Working Paper
How Large were the Effects of Emergency and Extended Benefits on Unemployment during the Great Recession and its Aftermath?
Figura, Andrew; Ratner, David (2017-06-27)
This paper presents estimates of the effect of unemployment benefit extensions during the Great Recession on unemployment and labor force participation. Unlike many recent studies of this subject, our estimates, following the work of Hagedorn, Karahan, Manovskii, and Mitman (2016), are inclusive of the effects of benefit extensions on employer, as well as, worker behavior. To identify the effect of benefit extensions, we use plausibly exogenous changes in the rules governing benefit extensions and their differential effects on the maximum duration of benefits across states. We find that the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-068

Working Paper
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts
Barlevy, Gadi; Hobijn, Bart; Faberman, R. Jason; Sahin, Aysegul (2023-10)
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-38

Working Paper
On the Importance of Household versus Firm Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
Pastorino, Elena; Lopez, Pierlauro; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Kehoe, Patrick J. (2020-09-25)
Although a credit tightening is commonly recognized as a key determinant of the Great Recession, to date, it is unclear whether a worsening of credit conditions faced by households or by firms was most responsible for the downturn. Some studies have suggested that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively the most important one. Many others contend that the firm-side channel played a crucial role. We propose a model in which both channels are present and explicitly formalized. Our analysis indicates that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively more relevant than the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-28

Working Paper
Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment
Ahn, Hie Joo; Hamilton, James D. (2019-05-17)
The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, and duration of unemployment are calculated contain numerous internal contradictions. This paper catalogs these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate by about two percentage points on average and that the bias in the latter has increased since the Great Recession. The BLS estimate of the average duration of unemployment overstates by 50% the true duration of uninterrupted spells of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-035

Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Koşar, Gizem; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-05-26)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Report
Wage Insurance for Displaced Workers
Hyman, Benjamin; Kovak, Brian K.; Leive, Adam (2024-05-01)
Wage insurance provides income support to displaced workers who find reemployment at a lower wage. We analyze wage insurance in the context of the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program by merging linked employer-employee Census data to TAA petitions and leveraging a discontinuity in eligibility based on worker age. Wage insurance eligibility increases short-run employment probabilities and leads to higher long-run cumulative earnings. We find shorter non-employment durations largely drive increased long-term earnings among workers eligible for wage insurance. Our results are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1105

Working Paper
Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles
Chang, Yongsung; Karabarbounis, Marios; Hong, Jay H. (2014-06-14)
The standard theory of household-portfolio choice is hard to reconcile with the following facts: (i) Households hold a small amount of equity despite the higher average rate of return. (ii) The share of risky assets increases with the age of the household. (iii) The share of risky assets is disproportionately larger for richer households. We develop a life-cycle model with age-dependent unemployment risk and gradual learning about the income profile that can address all three puzzles. Young workers, on average asset poor, face larger labor-market uncertainty because of high unemployment risk ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-13

Working Paper
The Consequences of Gentrification: A Focus on Residents’ Financial Health in Philadelphia
Ding, Lei; Hwang, Jackelyn (2016-07-29)
There have been considerable debate and controversy about the effects of gentrification on neighborhoods and the people residing in them. This paper draws on a unique large-scale consumer credit database to examine the relationship between gentrification and the credit scores of residents in the City of Philadelphia from 2002 to 2014. We find that gentrification is positively associated with changes in residents? credit scores on average for those who stay, and this relationship is stronger for residents in neighborhoods in the more advanced stages of gentrification. Gentrification is also ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-22

Working Paper
Estimating the Intergenerational Elasticity and Rank Association in the U.S.: Overcoming the Current Limitations of Tax Data
Mazumder, Bhashkar (2015-06-01)
Ideal estimates of the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) in income require a large panel of income data covering the entire working lifetimes for two generations. Previous studies have demonstrated that using short panels and covering only certain portions of the life cycle can lead to considerable bias. A recent influential study by Chetty et al. (2014) using tax data estimates the IGE in family income for the entire U.S. to be 0.344, considerably lower than most previous estimates. Despite the seeming advantages of extremely large samples of administrative tax data, I demonstrate that the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-4

Report
Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss
De Pace, Federica; Fella, Giulio; Audoly, Richard (2022-12-01)
High-tenure workers who lose their jobs experience a large and prolonged fall in wages and earnings. To quantify the forces behind this empirical regularity, we propose a rich structural model of the labor market with heterogeneous firms, on-the-job search, and firm-specific and general human capital. By jointly matching moments of workers’ mobility and wages, the model can replicate the losses in earnings and wages observed in the data. The loss of a job with a more productive employer is the primary driver of the cumulated wage losses post-displacement (50 percent), followed by the loss ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1043

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