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Working Paper
The Baby Boomers and the Productivity Slowdown
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2018-12-01)
The entry of baby boomers into the labor market in the 1970s slowed growth for physical and human capital per worker because young workers have little of both. Thus, the baby boom could have contributed to the 1970s productivity slowdown. I build and calibrate a model a la Huggett et al. (2011) with exogenous population and TFP to evaluate this theory. The baby boom accounts for 75% of the slowdown in the period 1964-69, 25% in 1970-74 and 2% in 1975-79. The retiring of baby boomers may cause a 2.8pp decline in productivity growth between 2020 and 2040, ceteris paribus.
Working Papers , Paper 2018-37

Working Paper
Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2014-08-01)
As a measure of labor market strength, the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) confounds employment outcomes with labor supply behavior. Movement in the EPOP depends on the relative movements of the employment rate (one minus the unemployment rate) and the labor force participation rate. This paper proposes an adjustment to the calculation of the EPOP using individual microdata to account for both individual characteristics and the probability of labor force participation, which can used to assess the strength of the labor market.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-8

Working Paper
Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market
Wozniak, Abigail; Trezzi, Riccardo; Smith, Christopher L.; Molloy, Raven S. (2016-03-02)
We document a clear downward trend in labor market fluidity that is common across a variety of measures of worker and job turnover. This trend dates to at least the early 1980s if not somewhat earlier. Next we pull together evidence on a variety of hypotheses that might explain this downward trend. It is only partly related to population demographics and is not due to the secular shift in industrial composition. Moreover, the decline in labor market fluidity seems unlikely to have been caused by an improvement in worker-firm matching, the formalization of hiring practices, or an increase in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-15

Working Paper
Returning to the Nest: Debt and Parental Co-residence Among Young Adults
Hsu, Joanne W.; Dettling, Lisa J. (2014-09-02)
This paper examines the relationship between a young adults' debt burden and the decision to co-reside with a parent. Using a quarterly panel of young adults' credit histories, and controlling for age, county, and quarter fixed effects, and local demographic characteristics, unemployment rates, and house prices, we estimate the relationship between current period debt and subsequent decisions to co-reside with a parent. Our results indicate that indebtedness--as measured by average loan balances, declining credit scores and delinquency on accounts--increases flows into parental co-residence. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-80

Journal Article
Worker Diversity and Wage Growth Since 1940
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Peake, Makenzie (2020)
Since 1940 the average worker has become older, more educated, more likely to be a woman, less likely to be White, and slightly less likely to be single. How has this evolution of the average worker affected wage growth, that is, the wage of the average worker? We conduct two sets of experiments: First, we decompose wage growth between a “growth effect” and a “distribution effect.” The former measures the effect of a change in the wage function, associating wages with worker types; the latter measures the effect of the changing distribution of worker types. Both effects contribute ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-18

Working Paper
Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium
Zabek, Mike (2019-11-18)
If someone lives in an economically depressed place, they were probably born there. The presence of people with local ties - a preference to live in their birthplace - leads to smaller migration responses. Smaller migration responses to wage declines lead to lower real incomes and make real incomes more sensitive to subsequent demand shocks, a form of hysteresis. Local ties can persist for generations. Place-based policies, like tax subsidies, targeting depressed places cause smaller distortions since few people want to move to depressed places. Place-based policies targeting productive ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-080

Journal Article
The Faster Growth of Larger, Less Crowded Locations
Rappaport, Jordan (2018-10)
Over the past few decades, the population and employment growth of small and large locations in the United States have diverged. Many smaller cities and rural areas saw declining population and employment from 2000 to 2017 as residents and jobs migrated to larger, more prosperous locations. This migration might suggest that the benefits of size, such as business productivity and urban amenities, have become greater over time. However, the migration might also reflect other factors, such as the disproportionate specialization of smaller locations in the declining manufacturing and agriculture ...
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 5-38

Working Paper
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession
Lofton, Olivia; Valletta, Robert G.; Daly, Mary C.; Bengali, Leila (2021-02-25)
People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequateincome. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion thatfollowed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current PopulationSurvey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansionbolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor marketengagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell duringthe expansion. On balance, our results suggest ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-05

Working Paper
Gentrification and residential mobility in Philadelphia
Ding, Lei; Divringi, Eileen; Hwang, Jackelyn (2015-10-15)
Gentrification has provoked considerable debate and controversy about its effects on neighborhoods and the people residing in them. This paper draws on a unique large-scale consumer credit database to examine the mobility patterns of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia from 2002 to 2014. We find significant heterogeneity in the effects of gentrification across neighborhoods and subpopulations. Residents in gentrifying neighborhoods have slightly higher mobility rates than those in nongentrifying neighborhoods, but they do not have a higher risk of moving to a ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-36

Working Paper
Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment
Kurz, Christopher J.; Decker, Ryan A.; Crane, Leland D.; Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian; Cajner, Tomaz (2020-04-16)
Many traditional official statistics are not suitable for measuring high-frequency developments that evolve over the course of weeks, not months. In this paper, we track the labor market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic with weekly payroll employment series based on microdata from ADP. These data are available essentially in real-time, and allow us to track both aggregate and industry effects. Cumulative losses in paid employment through April 4 are currently estimated at 18 million; just during the two weeks between March 14 and March 28 the U.S. economy lost about 13 million paid jobs. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-030

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