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Journal Article
An Empirical Economic Assessment of the Costs and Benefits of Bank Capital in the United States
Firestone, Simon; Ranish, Benjamin; Lorenc, Amy (2019)
We evaluate the economic costs and benefits of bank capital in the United States. The analysis is similar to that found in previous studies, though we tailor it to the specific features and experience of the U.S. financial system. We also make adjustments to account for the impact of liquidity- and resolution-related regulations on the probability of a financial crisis. We find that the level of capital that maximizes the difference between total benefits and total costs ranges from just over 13 percent to 26 percent. This range reflects a high degree of uncertainty and latitude in specifying ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 3

Working Paper
Secondary Market Liquidity and the Optimal Capital Structure
Arseneau, David M.; Rappoport, David E.; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2015-05-12)
We present a model where endogenous liquidity generates a feedback loop between secondary market liquidity and firms' financing decisions in primary markets. The model features two key frictions: a costly state verification problem in primary markets, and search frictions in over-the-counter secondary markets. Our concept of liquidity depends endogenously on illiquid assets put up for sale relative to the resources available for buying those assets in the secondary market. Liquidity determines the liquidity premium, which affects issuance in the primary market, and this effect feeds back into ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-31

Journal Article
Case studies on disruptions during the crisis
Yorulmazer, Tanju (2014-02)
The 2007-09 financial crisis saw many funding mechanisms challenged by a drastic reduction in market liquidity, a sharp increase in the cost of transactions, and, in some cases, a drying-up in financing. This article presents case studies of several key financial markets and intermediaries under significant distress at this time. For each case, the author discusses the size and evolution of the funding mechanism, the sources of the disruptions, and the policy responses aimed at mitigating distress and making markets more liquid. The review serves as a reference on the vulnerabilities of ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Feb , Pages 17-28

Working Paper
The boy who cried bubble: public warnings against riding bubbles
Asako, Yasushi; Ueda, Kozo (2014-01-16)
Attempts by governments to stop bubbles by issuing warnings seem unsuccessful. This paper examines the effects of public warnings using a simple model of riding bubbles. We show that public warnings against a bubble can stop it if investors believe that a warning is issued in a definite range of periods commencing around the starting period of the bubble. If a warning involves the possibility of being issued too early, regardless of the starting period of the bubble, it cannot stop the bubble immediately. Bubble duration can be shortened by a premature public warning, but lengthened if it is ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 167

Working Paper
A tale of two commitments: equilibrium default and temptation
Nakajima, Makoto (2013-12-11)
I construct the life-cycle model with equilibrium default and preferences featuring temptation and self-control. The model provides quantitatively similar answers to positive questions such as the causes of the observed rise in debt and bankruptcies and macroeconomic implications of the 2005 bankruptcy reform, as the standard model without temptation. However, the temptation model provides contrasting welfare implications, because of overborrowing when the borrowing constraint is relaxed. Specifically, the 2005 bankruptcy reform has an overall negative welfare effect, according to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-1

Working Paper
The Decline in Asset Return Predictability and Macroeconomic Volatility
Qian, Charles; Hsu, Alex; Palomino, Francisco J. (2017-05)
We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982, and a significant decline in this predictability during the Great Moderation. These findings are robust to alternative empirical specifications and out-of-sample tests. We explore the predictability decline using a model that incorporates monetary policy and shocks with time-varying volatility. The decline is consistent with changes in both policy and shock dynamics. While an increase in the response to inflation in the interest-rate policy rule decreases volatility, more ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-050

Working Paper
Are Basel's Capital Surcharges for Global Systemically Important Banks Too Small?
von Hafften, Alexander H.; Passmore, Wayne (2017-02-21)
The Basel Committee promulgates bank regulatory standards that many major economies enact to a significant extent. One element of the Basel III capital standards is a system of capital surcharges for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). If the purpose of the surcharges is to ensure the survival of G-SIBs through serious crises (like the 2007-09 financial crisis) without extraordinary public assistance, our analysis suggests that current surcharges are too low because of three shortcomings: (1) the Basel system underestimates the probability that a G-SIB can fail, (2) the Basel system ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-021

Working Paper
Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments ---- A New Cross-Country Database
Cerutti, Eugenio; Segalla, Esther; Correa, Ricardo; Fiorentino, Elisabetta (2016-06)
This paper documents the features of a new database that focuses on changes in the intensity in the usage of several widely used prudential tools, taking into account both macro-prudential and microprudential objectives. The database coverage is broad, spanning 64 countries, and with quarterly data for the period 2000Q1 through 2014Q4. The five types of prudential instruments in the database are: capital buffers, interbank exposure limits, concentration limits, loan to value (LTV) ratio limits, and reserve requirements. A total of nine prudential tools are constructed since some useful ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1169

Journal Article
The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility
Caviness, Elizabeth; Sarkar, Asani; Goyal, Ankur; Park, Woojung (2022-07-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the asset-backed securities (ABS) market, resulting in higher spreads on ABS and briefly halting the issuance of some ABS. On March 23, 2020, the Federal Reserve established the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to support the flow of credit to consumers and businesses by re-enabling the issuance of ABS. In this article, the authors describe how TALF works, how much it was used, and its effect on the issuance and spreads of TALF-eligible securities relative to those of TALF-ineligible securities. They find that both the introduction of TALF and ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 28 , Issue 1

Report
The shadow banking system: implications for financial regulation
Shin, Hyun Song; Adrian, Tobias (2009-07-01)
The current financial crisis has highlighted the growing importance of the "shadow banking system," which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. This trend has been most pronounced in the United States, but it has had a profound influence on the global financial system. In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable: Funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. Growth in the balance sheets of these intermediaries ...
Staff Reports , Paper 382

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