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Working Paper
Supply and demand shifts of shorts before Fed announcements during QE1–QE3
Planchon, Jade; McInish, Thomas H.; Neely, Christopher J. (2020-12-17)
Cohen, Diether, and Malloy (Journal of Finance, 2007), find that shifts in the demand curve predict negative stock returns. We use their approach to examine changes in supply and demand at the time of FOMC announcements. We show that shifts in the demand for borrowing Treasuries and agencies predict quantitative easing. A reduction in the quantity demanded at all points along the demand curve predicts expansionary quantitative easing announcements.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-051

Working Paper
Mortgage Loss Severities: What Keeps Them So High?
Cordell, Lawrence R.; An, Xudong (2020-09-25)
Mortgage loss-given-default (LGD) increased significantly when house prices plummeted during the financial crisis, but it has remained over 40 percent in recent years, despite a strong housing recovery. Our results indicate that the sustained high LGDs post-crisis is due to a combination of an overhang of crisis-era foreclosures and prolonged liquidation timelines, which have offset higher sales recoveries. Simulations show that cutting foreclosure timelines by one year would cause LGD to decrease by 5 to 8 percentage points, depending on the tradeoff between lower liquidation expenses and ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-37

Report
Simple and reliable way to compute option-based risk-neutral distributions
Malz, Allan M. (2014-06-01)
This paper describes a method for computing risk-neutral density functions based on the option-implied volatility smile. Its aim is to reduce complexity and provide cookbook-style guidance through the estimation process. The technique is robust and avoids violations of option no-arbitrage restrictions that can lead to negative probabilities and other implausible results. I give examples for equities, foreign exchange, and long-term interest rates.
Staff Reports , Paper 677

Working Paper
Unexpected Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run
Berger, Allen N.; Roman, Raluca; Schoors, Koen; Lamers, Martien (2020-03-05)
A key policy issue is whether bank bailouts weaken or strengthen market discipline. We address this by analyzing how bank bailouts influence deposit quantities and prices of recipients versus other banks. Using the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailouts, we find both deposit quantities and prices decline, consistent with substantially reduced demand for deposits by bailed-out banks that dominate market discipline supply effects. Main findings are robust to numerous checks and endogeneity tests. However, diving deeper into depositor heterogeneity suggests nuances. Increases in uninsured ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-10

Working Paper
Efficient Bailouts?
Bianchi, Javier (2016-01-19)
We develop a quantitative equilibrium model of financial crises to assess the interaction between ex-post interventions in credit markets and the buildup of risk ex ante. During a systemic crisis, bailouts relax balance sheet constraints and mitigate the severity of the recession. Ex ante, the anticipation of such bailouts leads to an increase in risk-taking, making the economy more vulnerable to a financial crisis. We find that moral hazard effects are limited if bailouts are systemic and broad-based. If bailouts are idiosyncratic and targeted, however, this makes the economy significantly ...
Working Papers , Paper 730

Working Paper
The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination
Liao, Gordon Y.; Zhang, Tony (2020-05-28)
We document the exchange rate hedging channel that connects country-level measures of net external financial imbalances with exchange rates. In times of market distress, countries with large positive external imbalances (e.g. Japan) experience domestic currency appreciation, and crucially, forward exchange rates appreciate relatively more than the spot after adjusting for interest rate differentials. Countries with large negative foreign asset positions experience the opposite currency movements. We present a model demonstrating that exchange rate hedging coupled with intermediary constraints ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1283

Report
Dealers and the Dealer of Last Resort: Evidence from MBS Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis
Song, Zhaogang; Sarkar, Asani; Liu, Haoyang; Chen, Jiakai (2020-07-01)
We study price dislocations and liquidity provision by dealers and the Federal Reserve (Fed) as the “dealer of last resort” in agency MBS markets during the COVID-19 crisis. As customers sold MBS to “scramble for cash,” dealers provided liquidity by taking inventory in the cash market and hedging inventory risk in the forward market. The cash and forward prices diverged significantly beyond the difference in the quality of MBS traded on the two markets. The Fed first facilitated dealers’ inventory hedging and then took holdings off dealers’ inventory directly. The price ...
Staff Reports , Paper 933

Report
Macroprudential policy: case study from a tabletop exercise
Adrian, Tobias; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick; Yang, Emily; Zlate, Andrei (2015-09-01)
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policymakers and academics around the world have advocated the use of prudential tools for macroprudential purposes. This paper presents a macroprudential tabletop exercise that aimed at confronting Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a plausible, albeit hypothetical, macro-financial scenario that would lend itself to macroprudential considerations. In the tabletop exercise, the primary macroprudential objective was to reduce the likelihood and severity of possible future financial disruptions associated with the hypothetical overheating ...
Staff Reports , Paper 742

Report
Asset Pricing with Cohort-Based Trading in MBS Markets
Fusari, Nicola; Song, Zhaogang; Li, Wei; Liu, Haoyang (2020-07-01)
Agency MBSs with diverse characteristics are traded in parallel with individualized specified pool (SP) contracts and standardized to-be-announced (TBA) contracts. This parallel trading environment has distinctive effects on MBS pricing and trading: (1) Although cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) issues are present only in TBA contracts and absent from SP trading by definition, MBS heterogeneity associated with CTD discounts affects SP returns positively, with the effect stronger for lower-value SPs; (2) High selling pressure amplifies the effects of MBS heterogeneity on SP returns; (3) Greater MBS ...
Staff Reports , Paper 931

Working Paper
A Day Late and a Dollar Short : Liquidity and Household Formation among Student Borrowers
Goodman, Sarena; Isen, Adam; Yannelis, Constantine (2018-04-13)
The federal government encourages human capital investment through lending and grant programs, but resources from these programs may also finance non-education activities for students whose liquidity is otherwise restricted. This paper explores this possibility, using administrative data for the universe of federal student loan borrowers linked to tax records. We examine the effects of a sharp discontinuity in program limits?generated by the timing of a student borrower?s 24th birthday?on household formation early in the lifecycle. After demonstrating that this discontinuity induces a jump in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-025

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