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Working Paper
Central Bank Communication with a Financial Stability Objective
Arseneau, David M. (2020-10-13)
An endogenous financial crisis is introduced into the canonical model used to study central bank transparency. The central bank is endowed with private information about the real economy and credit conditions which jointly determine financial vulnerabilities. An optimal choice is made regarding whether to communicate this information to the public. A key finding is that the optimal communication strategy depends on the state of the credit cycle and the composition of shocks driving the cycle. From a policy perspective, this raises the possibility that central bank communication in the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-087

Working Paper
Unconventional monetary policy and the behavior of shorts
McInish, Thomas; Planchon, Jade; Neely, Christopher J.
We investigate the behavior of shorts, considered sophisticated investors, before and after a set of Federal Reserve unconventional monetary policy announcements that spot bond markets did not fully anticipate. Short interest in agency securities systematically predicts bond price changes and other asset returns on the days of monetary announcements, particularly when growth or monetary news is released, indicating shorts correctly anticipated these surprises. Shorts also systematically adjusted their positions after announcements in the direction of the announcement surprise when the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-031

Working Paper
Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China
Li, Xiaoming; Xu, Zhiwei; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao (2020-08-03)
We present evidence that monetary policy easing reduces bank risk-taking but exacerbates capital misallocation in China after implementing the Basel III capital regulationsin2013. Thenewregulationstightenedbankcapitalrequirementsandintroduced a new risk-weighting approach to calculating the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). To meet tightened capital requirements, a bank can boost its eﬀective CAR by raising capital or by increasing the share of lending to low-risk borrowers. Using conﬁdential loan-level data from a large Chinese commercial bank, merged with ﬁrm-level data on a large set of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-27

Journal Article
Stability of funding models: an analytical framework
McAndrews, James J.; Keister, Todd; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Yorulmazer, Tanju (2014)
With the recent financial crisis, many financial intermediaries experienced strains created by declining asset values and a loss of funding sources. In reviewing these stress events, one notices that some arrangements appear to have been more stable?that is, better able to withstand shocks to their asset values and/or funding sources?than others. Because the precise determinants of this stability are not well understood, gaining a better grasp of them is a critical task for market participants and policymakers as they try to design more resilient arrangements and improve financial regulation. ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Feb , Pages 29-47

Journal Article
Credit risk transfer and de facto GSE reform
Finkelstein, David; Strzodka, Andreas; Vickery, James (2018)
The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit risk transfer (CRT) programs, now in their fifth year, shift a portion of credit risk on more than $1.8 trillion of mortgages to private-sector investors. This study summarizes and evaluates the CRT programs, finding that they have been successful in reducing the exposure of the government-sponsored enterprises and the federal government to mortgage credit risk without disrupting the liquidity or stability of mortgage secondary markets. The programs have also created a new financial market for pricing and trading mortgage credit risk, which has grown in ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 88-116

Report
Uncovering covered interest parity: the role of bank regulation and monetary policy
Puria, Kovid; Bräuning, Falk (2017-06-01)
We analyze the factors underlying the recent deviations from covered interest parity. We show that these deviations can be explained by tighter post-crisis bank capital regulations that made the provision of foreign exchange swaps more costly. Moreover, the recent monetary policy and related interest rate divergence between the United States and other major foreign countries has led to a surge in demand for swapping low interest rate currencies into the U.S. dollar. Given the higher bank balance sheet costs resulting from these regulatory changes, the increased demand for U.S. dollars in the ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-3

Report
Technology, the nature of information, and fintech marketplace lending
Wang, J. Christina (2018-10-01)
The retail lending landscape has changed considerably over the past two decades, the most recent example being the rapid growth of online, or FinTech, lending to consumers and small businesses. This paper discusses how the boundary of the firm in the retail lending market is affected by advances in information technology that have turned what was previously soft information on borrower credit risk into encoded hard data that can be precisely transmitted across firms at a very low cost. The ability to collect and process information has become the critical resource for lending decisions, ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 18-3

Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Case Study from a Tabletop Exercise
Zlate, Andrei; Adrian, Tobias; Yang, Emily; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick (2015-09-30)
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policy makers and academics around the world have advocated the use of prudential tools for macroprudential purposes. This paper presents a macroprudential tabletop exercise that aimed at confronting Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a plausible, albeit hypothetical, macro-financial scenario that would lend itself to macroprudential considerations. In the tabletop exercise, the primary macroprudential objective was to reduce the likelihood and severity of possible future financial disruptions associated with the hypothetical overheating ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 15-1

Report
Reference guide to U.S. repo and securities lending markets
McCaughrin, Rebecca; Baklanova, Viktoria; Copeland, Adam (2015-09-01)
This paper is intended to serve as a reference guide on U.S. repo and securities lending markets. It begins by presenting the institutional structure, and then describes the market landscape, the role of the participants, and other characteristics, including how repo and securities lending activity has changed since the 2007-09 financial crisis. The paper then discusses vulnerabilities in the repo and short-term wholesale funding markets and the efforts to limit potential systemic risks. It next provides an overview of existing data sources on securities financing markets and highlights ...
Staff Reports , Paper 740

Report
Securitization and the fixed-rate mortgage
Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas (2013)
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) dominate the U.S. mortgage market, with important consequences for monetary policy, household risk management, and financial stability. In this paper, we show that the share of FRMs is sharply lower when mortgages are difficult to securitize. Our analysis exploits plausibly exogenous variation in access to liquid securitization markets generated by a regulatory cutoff and time variation in private securitization activity. We interpret our findings as evidence that lenders are reluctant to retain the prepayment and interest rate risk embedded in FRMs. The form of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 594

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