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Intellectual Property, Tariffs, and International Trade Dynamics
The emergence of global value chains not only leads to a magnification of trade in intermediate inputs but also to an extensive technology diffusion among the different production units involved in arms-length relationships. In this context, the lack of enforcement of intellectual property rights has recently become a highly controversial subject of debate in the context of the China-U.S. trade negotiations. This paper analyzes the strategic interaction of tariff policies and the enforcement of intellectual property rights within a quantitative general equilibrium framework. Results indicate that, in principle, tariffs could be an effective deterrent for weak protections for intellectual property. Moreover, weakening enforcement may be a strong deterrent for raising tariffs. These results combined indicate that there is scope for international cooperation on these fronts.
AUTHORS: Mandelman, Federico S.; Waddle, Andrea L.
Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I
Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks ? and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty ? caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. Impulse response functions show that increased uncertainty caused a rise in inflation contemporaneously and for a few months afterward in GAPH, but this effect was absent or much more limited for the other European countries in our sample. Our results suggest that elevated economic uncertainty directly affected inflation dynamics and the incidence of hyperinflation during the interwar period.
AUTHORS: Lopez, Jose A.; Mitchener, Kris James
Reflections on the new compliance landscape
Remarks at ?The New Compliance Landscape: Increasing Roles ? Increasing Risks? Conference, New York City.
AUTHORS: Baxter, Thomas C.