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Working Paper
Financial Frictions and International Trade
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2021-07-08)
This paper reviews recent studies on the impact of financial frictions on international trade. We first present evidence on the relation between measures of access to external finance and export decisions. We then present an analytical framework to analyze the impact of financial frictions on firms' export decisions. Finally, we review recent applications of this framework to investigate the impact of financial frictions on international trade dynamics across firms, industries, and in the aggregate. We discuss related empirical, theoretical, and quantitative studies throughout.
Working Papers , Paper 2021-009

Report
Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? The case of imported beer
Hellerstein, Rebecca (2004-02-01)
This paper quantifies the welfare effects of a change in the nominal exchange rate using the example of the beer market. I estimate a structural econometric model that makes it possible to compute manufacturers' and retailers' pass-through of a nominal exchange-rate change, without observing wholesale prices or firms' marginal costs. I conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify how the change affects domestic and foreign firms' profits and domestic consumer welfare. The counterfactual experiments show that foreign manufacturers bear more of the cost of an exchange-rate change than do ...
Staff Reports , Paper 179

Working Paper
Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks
Hohberger, Stefan; Kollmann, Robert; Vogel, Lukas; Giovannini, Massimo; Roeger, Werner; Ratto, Marco (2018-08-06)
The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the U.S. have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and U.S. economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (U.S., EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and U.S. trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 344

Working Paper
Borders and Big Macs
Landry, Anthony (2011)
I measure the extent of international market segmentation using local, national, and international Big Mac prices. I show that the bulk of time-series price volatility observed across the United States arises between neighboring locations. Using these data, I provide new estimates of border frictions for 14 countries. I find that borders generally introduce only small price wedges, far smaller than those observed across neighboring locations. When expressing these wedges in terms of distance equivalents, I find that border widths are small in relation to price variations observed across the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 95

Working Paper
Tariff passthrough at the border and at the store: evidence from US trade policy
Cavallo, Alberto; Gopinath, Gita; Neiman, Brent; Tang, Jenny (2019-11-01)
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy ? particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China ? on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to the total prices paid by importers, suggesting that the tariffs? incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-12

Working Paper
Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows
Davis, J. Scott; Van Wincoop, Eric; Valente, Giorgio (2019-03-27)
While prior to the global financial crisis, the empirical international capital flow literature has focused on net capital flows (the current account), since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model. We find evidence of two global factors, which we call the GFC (global financial cycle) factor and a commodity price factor as they closely track respectively the Miranda-Agrippino and Rey asset price factor and an ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 357

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses
Zlate, Andrei; Davis, J. Scott (2017-10-01)
This paper measures the effect of monetary tightening in key advanced economies on net capital flows and exchange rates around the world. Measuring this effect is complicated by the fact that the domestic monetary policies of affected economies respond endogenously to the foreign tightening shock. Using a structural VAR framework with quarterly panel data we estimate the impulse responses of domestic policy variables and net capital flows to a foreign monetary tightening shock. We find that the endogenous responses of domestic monetary policy depends on each economy?s capital account openness ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 328

Report
Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why
Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S. (2006-09-01)
In this paper, we use cross-country and time-series evidence to argue that retail price sensitivity to exchange rates may have increased over the past decade. This finding applies to traded goods as well as to non-traded goods. We highlight three reasons for the change in pass-through into the retail prices of goods. First, pass-through may have declined at the level of import prices, but the evidence is mixed over types of goods and countries. Second, there has been a large expansion of imported input use across sectors, meaning that the costs of imported goods as well as home-tradable goods ...
Staff Reports , Paper 261

Working Paper
Financial Development and Trade Liberalization
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2020-11)
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing international trade barriers on imports of physical capital and intermediate inputs. We document that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower response of real GDP, consumption, and investment following trade liberalization episodes that improve access to imported production inputs. To quantify the role of financial development, we set up a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to financial constraints and estimate it to match salient features from ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-038

Working Paper
Financial Development and International Trade
Leibovici, Fernando (2020-06)
This paper studies the industry-level and aggregate implications of financial development on international trade. I set up a multi-industry general equilibrium model of international trade with input-output linkages and heterogeneous firms subject to financial frictions. Industries differ in capital-intensity, which leads to differences in external finance dependence. The model is parameterized to match key features of firm-level data. Financial development leads to substantial reallocation of international trade shares from labor- to capital-intensive industries, with minor effects at the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-015

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