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Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why
Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S. (2006-09-01)
In this paper, we use cross-country and time-series evidence to argue that retail price sensitivity to exchange rates may have increased over the past decade. This finding applies to traded goods as well as to non-traded goods. We highlight three reasons for the change in pass-through into the retail prices of goods. First, pass-through may have declined at the level of import prices, but the evidence is mixed over types of goods and countries. Second, there has been a large expansion of imported input use across sectors, meaning that the costs of imported goods as well as home-tradable goods ...
Staff Reports , Paper 261

Report
External and Public Debt Crises
Wright, Mark L. J.; Atkeson, Andrew; Arellano, Cristina (2015-07-07)
The recent debt crises in Europe and the U.S. states feature similar sharp increases in spreads on government debt but also show important differences. In Europe, the crisis occurred at high government indebtedness levels and had spillovers to the private sector. In the United States, state government indebtedness was low, and the crisis had no spillovers to the private sector. We show theoretically and empirically that these different debt experiences result from the interplay between differences in the ability of governments to interfere in private external debt contracts and differences in ...
Staff Report , Paper 515

Working Paper
International R&D Spillovers and Asset Prices
Gavazzoni, Federico ; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2015-12-02)
We study the international propagation of long-run risk in the context of a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth. Innovation and international diffusion of technologies are the channels at the core of our mechanism. A calibrated version of the model matches several asset pricing and macroeconomic quantity moments, alleviating some of the puzzles highlighted in the international macro-finance literature. Our model predicts that country-pairs that share more R&D have less volatile exchange rates and more correlated stock market returns. Using data from a sample of 19 developed ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-41

Working Paper
The response of multinationals’ foreign exchange rate exposure to macroeconomic news
Boudt, Kris; Neely, Christopher J.; Sercu, Piet; Wauters, Marjan (2017-07-31)
We use intraday data to estimate the daily foreign exchange exposure of U.S. multinationals and show that macroeconomic news affects these firms? foreign exchange exposure. News creates a substantial shift in the joint distribution of stock and exchange rate returns that has both a transitory and a persistent component. For example, a positive domestic demand surprise, as reflected in higher-than-expected nonfarm payroll, increases the value of the low-exposure domestic activities and results in a persistent decrease in foreign exchange exposure.
Working Papers , Paper 2017-20

Journal Article
Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves, Policy Choices, and the U.S. Economy
Neely, Christopher J. (2017)
China is both a major trading partner of the United States and the largest official holder of U.S. assets in the world. The value of Chinese foreign exchange reserves peaked at just over $4 trillion in June 2014 but has since declined to $3.19 trillion (as of August 2016). This very large decline in foreign exchange reserves is unprecedented, and some analysts have speculated that continued sales of these (mostly U.S.) assets might significantly impact the U.S. and global economies. This article explains the reasons for this large decline in official assets, China?s available policy choices, ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 2

Working Paper
The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico
Phan, Toan; Leary, Ryan; Chari, Anusha (2018-02-17)
Puerto Rico's unique characteristics as a U.S. territory allow us to examine the channels through which (sub)sovereign default risk can have real effects on the macroeconomy. Post-2012, during the period of increased default probabilities, the cointegrating relationship between real activity in Puerto Rico and the U.S. mainland breaks down and Puerto Rico spirals into a significant decline. We exploit the cross-industry variation in default risk exposure to identify the impact of changes in default risk on employment. The evidence suggests that there are significantly higher employment growth ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-3

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Divergence and Net Capital Flows: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses
Zlate, Andrei; Davis, Scott (2018-09-27)
This paper measures the effect of monetary tightening in key advanced economies on net capital flows around the world. Measuring this effect is complicated by the fact that the domestic monetary policies of affected economies respond endogenously to the foreign tightening shock. Using a structural VAR framework with quarterly panel data we estimate the impulse responses of domestic policy variables and net capital flows to a foreign monetary tightening shock. We find that the endogenous response of domestic monetary policy depends on each economy's capital account openness and exchange rate ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 18-5

Working Paper
External and Public Debt Crises
Arellano, Cristina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Atkeson, Andrew (2015-07-02)
The recent debt crises in Europe and the U.S. states feature similar sharp increases in spreads on government debt but also show important differences. In Europe, the crisis occurred at high government indebtedness levels and had spillovers to the private sector. In the United States, state government indebtedness was low, and the crisis had no spillovers to the private sector. We show theoretically and empirically that these different debt experiences result from the interplay between differences in the ability of governments to interfere in private external debt contracts and differences in ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-5

Conference Paper
Bubble thy neighbor: portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls
Forbes, Kristin J.; Kostka, Thomas; Fratzscher, Marcel; Straub, Roland (2012-11)
We use changes in Brazil?s tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2011 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. The analysis is structured based on information from investor interviews. We find that an increase in Brazil?s tax on foreign investment in bonds causes investors to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Investors simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to use ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov , Pages 1-48

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models
Carvalho, Carlos; Yao, Fang; Nechio, Fernanda (2014-07)
We study how real exchange rate dynamics are affected by monetary policy in dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium, sticky-price models. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence ? policy inertia or persistent policy shocks ? is key. When the monetary policy rule has a strong interest rate smoothing component, these models fail to generate high real exchange rate persistence in response to monetary shocks, as policy inertia hampers their ability to generate a hump-shaped response to such shocks. Moreover, in the presence of persistent monetary ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-17

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