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Journal Article
Understanding Lowflation
Spewak, Andrew; Andolfatto, David (2019)
Central banks are viewed as having a demonstrated ability to lower long-run inflation. Since the Financial Crisis, however, the central banks in some jurisdictions seem almost powerless to accomplish the opposite. In this article, we offer an explanation for why this may be the case. Because central banks have limited instruments, long-run inflation is ultimately determined by fiscal policy. Central bank control of long-run inflation therefore ultimately hinges on its ability to gain fiscal compliance with its objectives. This ability is shown to be inherently easier for a central bank ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-26

Working Paper
Inflation dynamics: the role of public debt and policy regimes
Bhattarai, Saroj; Park, Woong Yong; Lee, Jae Won (2012)
We investigate the roles of a time-varying inflation target and monetary and fiscal policy stances on the dynamics of inflation in a DSGE model. Under an active monetary and passive fiscal policy regime, inflation closely follows the path of the inflation target and a stronger reaction of monetary policy to inflation decreases the equilibrium response of inflation to non-policy shocks. In sharp contrast, under an active fiscal and passive monetary policy regime, inflation moves in an opposite direction from the inflation target and a stronger reaction of monetary policy to inflation increases ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 124

Working Paper
High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗
Shin, Minchul; Tan, Fei; Chib, Siddhartha (2020-09-15)
Working Papers , Paper 20-35

Working Paper
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates
Cui, Wei; Bassetto, Marco (2017-11-16)
A central equation for the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) is the government budget constraint (or "government valuation equation"), which equates the real value of government debt to the present value of fiscal surpluses. In the past decade, the governments of most developed economies have paid very low interest rates, and there are many other periods in the past in which this has been the case. In this paper, we revisit the implications of the FTPL in a world where the rate of return on government debt may be below the growth rate of the economy, considering different sources for ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-25

Report
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Argentina, 1960-2017
Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Buera, Francisco J. (2019-02-01)
In this chapter, we review the monetary and fiscal history of Argentina for the period 1960?2017, a time during which the country suffered several balance of payments crises, three periods of hyperinflation, two defaults on government debt, and three banking crises. All told, between 1969 and 1991, after several monetary reforms, thirteen zeros had been removed from its currency. We argue that all these events are the symptom of a recurrent problem: Argentina?s unsuccessful attempts to tame the fiscal deficit. An implication of our analysis is that the future economic evolution of Argentina ...
Staff Report , Paper 580

Working Paper
The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap
Ueda, Kozo; Fujiwara, Ippei (2010)
We consider the fiscal multiplier and spillover in an environment in which two countries are caught simultaneously in a liquidity trap. Using an optimizing two-country sticky price model, we show that the fiscal multiplier and spillover are contrary to those predicted in textbook economics. For the country with government expenditure, the fiscal multiplier exceeds one, the currency depreciates, and the terms of trade worsen. The fiscal spillover is negative if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is less than one and positive if the parameter is greater than one. ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 51

Working Paper
Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States
Bi, Huixin; Yang, Shu-Chun S.; Shen, Wenyi (2020-10-02)
This paper studies the fiscal implications of interest rate normalization from the zero lower bound (ZLB) in the United States. At the ZLB, the decline in tax revenues and the real bond price drives up government debt. During normalization, interest payments continue to rise higher than they would have had rates not reached the ZLB, potentially increasing government debt even as output and tax revenues recover. We find that against the yardstick of ability to pay, interest rate normalization is unlikely to pose an immediate threat to debt sustainability at the current net federal debt level ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-12

Working Paper
Fiscal stabilization with partial exchange rate pass-through
Kersting, Erasmus K. (2009)
This paper examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two-country framework that allows for a general degree of exchange rate pass-through. I derive analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy which are shown to depend on the degree of pass-through. In the case of partial pass-through, an optimizing policy maker uses countercyclical fiscal stabilization in addition to monetary stabilization. However, in the extreme cases of complete or zero pass-through, the fiscal stabilization instrument is not employed. There is also no additional gain from the fiscal instrument ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 31

Working Paper
Optimal monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound in a small open economy
Egorov, Konstantin; Bhattarai, Saroj (2016-01-01)
We investigate open economy dimensions of optimal monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a small open economy model. At positive interest rates, the trade elasticity has negligible effects on optimal policy. In contrast, at the ZLB, the trade elasticity plays a key role in optimal policy prescriptions. The way in which the trade elasticity shapes policy depends on the government's ability to commit. Under discretion, the increase in government spending at the ZLB depends critically on the trade elasticity. Under commitment, the difference between future and current ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 260

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Liquid Government Debt
Martin, Fernando M.; Andolfatto, David (2018-01-16)
We examine the conduct of monetary policy in a world where the supply of outside money is controlled by the fiscal authority-a scenario increasingly relevant for many developed economies today. Central bank control over the long-run inflation rate depends on whether fiscal policy is Ricardian or Non-Ricardian. The optimal monetary policy follows a generalized Friedman rule that eliminates the liquidity premium on scarce treasury debt. We derive conditions for determinacy under both fiscal regimes and show that they do not necessarily correspond to the Taylor principle. In addition, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-2

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