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Working Paper
Labor Market Power
Berger, David W.; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Mongey, Simon (2021-05-13)
To measure labor market power in the US economy, we develop a tractable quantitative, general equilibrium, oligopsony model of the labor market. We estimate key model parameters by matching the firm-level relationship between labor market share and employment size and wage responses to state corporate tax changes. The model quantitatively replicates quasi-experimental evidence on (i) imperfect productivity-wage pass-through, (ii) strategic behavior of dominant employers, and (iii) the local labor market impact of mergers. We then measure welfare losses relative to the efficient allocation. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 48

Journal Article
China's Growth Outlook: Is High-Income Status in Reach?
Higgins, Matthew (2020-10-01)
Can China build on its development success to achieve high-income status in the decades ahead? To shed light on this question, we examine the past and prospective future sources of growth in China through the lens of the neoclassical growth model. Our key finding is that China would need to sustain total factor productivity growth at the top end of the range achieved by its high-income Pacific Rim neighbors in order to match their success in raising living standards. While fast-growing working-age populations boosted per capita income growth elsewhere in the Pacific Rim, a rapidly aging ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 26 , Issue 4 , Pages 69-97

Working Paper
Optimal taxation and debt with uninsurable risks to human capital accumulation
Nakajima, Tomoyuki; Gottardi, Piero; Kajii, Atsushi (2014-11-01)
We consider an economy where individuals face uninsurable risks to their human capital accumulation and study the problem of determining the optimal level of linear taxes on capital and labor income together with the optimal path of the debt level. We show both analytically and numerically that in the presence of such risks it is beneficial to tax both labor and capital income and to have positive government debt.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-24

Working Paper
Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market
Zhang, Calvin; Li, Zhimin; Shen, Leslie Sheng (2020-06-30)
We study the effects of foreign real estate capital flows on local asset prices and employment using detailed housing transactions data. We document (i) a "China shock" in the U.S. real estate market after 2007 driven by the Chinese government's house purchase restrictions and (ii) "home bias" in foreign Chinese housing purchases in the United States as they are concentrated in ZIP codes historically populated by ethnic Chinese. Exploiting the quasi-random temporal and spatial variation of real estate capital inflows from China, we find that foreign Chinese housing purchases have a positive ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1286

Report
Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession
Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Huo, Zhen (2016-02-05)
We study financial shocks to households? ability to borrow in an economy that quantitatively replicates U.S. earnings, financial, and housing wealth distributions and the main macro aggregates. Such shocks generate large recessions via the negative wealth effect associated with the large drop in house prices triggered by the reduced access to credit of a large number of households. The model incorporates additional margins that are crucial for a large recession to occur: that it is difficult to reallocate production from consumption to investment or net exports, and that the reductions in ...
Staff Report , Paper 526

Working Paper
Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression
MacGee, James; Amaral, Pedro S. (2016-02-12)
Canadian GNP per capita fell by roughly a third between 1928 and 1933. Although the decline and the slow recovery of GNP resemble the American Great Depression, trade was more important in Canada, as exports and imports each accounted for roughly a quarter of Canadian GNP in 1928. The fall in the trade share of GNP of roughly 30 percent between 1928 and 1933 was accompanied by a decline of over 20 percent in the relative prices of exports and imports relative to nontraded goods. We develop a three-sector small open economy model, where wages in the nontraded and import competing sectors ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1606

Journal Article
A Revision to Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, 1991-95
Raddock, Richard D. (1996-01)
The Federal Reserve's index of industrial production and its related measures of capacity and utilization for January 1991 onward have been revised to incorporate updated or additional data, revised seasonal factors through mid-1995 and updated productivity relationships for input-based estimates. The updated measures continue to paint the same broad picture of recovery in industrial activity from the 1990 recession through 1994 followed by a slowdown in early 1995.
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 82 , Issue 1 , Pages pp. 16-25

Report
Appendix for How Exporters Grow
Fitzgerald, Doireann; Yedid-Levi, Yaniv; Haller, Stephanie (2017-01-24)
No abstract
Staff Report , Paper 539

Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
Brown, Jason; Felix, Alison (2020-06-17)
COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China
Wang, Ping; Garriga, Carlos; Tang, Yang (2014-10-01)
This paper explores the contribution of the structural transformation and urbanization process in the housing market in China. City migration flows combined with an inelastic land supply, due to entry restrictions, has raised house prices. This issue is examined using a multi-sector dynamic general-equilibrium model with migration and housing market. Our quantitative findings suggest that this process accounts for about 80 percent of urban housing prices. This mechanism remains valid in an extension calibrated to the two largest cities where housing booms have been particularly noticeable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-28

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