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Working Paper
Homelessness
Imrohoroglu, Ayse; Zhao, Kai (2024-10-22)
We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of homelessness calibrated to the U.S. data and evaluate the effectiveness of several policies in the fight against homelessness. The model is designed to capture the most at-risk groups, producing a diverse homeless population that includes a significant portion experiencing short-term homelessness due to labor market shocks and a smaller portion facing chronic homelessness mostly due to health shocks. Our policy experiments reveal that the existing housing voucher program effectively reduces homelessness especially when the general equilibrium ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 103

Journal Article
Why Are Americans Saving So Much of Their Income?
Smith, Andrew Lee (2020-12-04)
For much of 2020, Americans have saved a greater share of their income than ever before. This increase in savings appears to be predominantly driven by precautionary motives. Therefore, consumers may be reluctant to draw down these savings in the future to support spending.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Was China's Housing Boom a Bubble?
Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron; Tang, Yang; Wang, Ping (2024-12-20)
This article investigates the factors influencing nationwide and city-level house price trends in China during the 2000s and early 2010s, considering the country’s significant structural transformation and urbanization. The analysis reveals that "fundamental forces" effectively explain house price appreciation at the national level and in most cities, with Beijing and Shanghai being notable exceptions. Income growth is the primary driver of rising house prices, while population growth also plays a significant role. However, in many cases, the impact of population growth on house prices is ...
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 14 , Pages 15 pages

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-08-25)
A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard firm dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a “sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Discussion Paper
Why Investment‑Led Growth Lowers Chinese Living Standards
Higgins, Matthew (2024-11-14)
Rapid GDP growth, due in part to high rates of investment and capital accumulation, has raised China out of poverty and into middle-income status. But progress in raising living standards has lagged, as a side-effect of policies favoring investment over consumption. At present, consumption per capita stands some 40 percent below what might be expected given China’s income level. We quantify China’s consumption prospects via the lens of the neoclassical growth model. We find that shifting the country’s production mix toward consumption would raise both current and future living ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20241114

Report
How Should Tax Progressivity Respond to Rising Income Inequality?
Violante, Giovanni L.; Heathcote, Jonathan; Storesletten, Kjetil (2020-10-19)
We address this question in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model featuring exogenous idiosyncratic risk, endogenous skill investment, and flexible labor supply. The tax and transfer schedule is restricted to be log-linear in income, a good description of the US system. Rising inequality is modeled as a combination of skill-biased technical change and growth in residual wage dispersion. When facing shifts in the income distribution like those observed in the US, a utilitarian planner chooses higher progressivity in response to larger residual inequality but lower progressivity in ...
Staff Report , Paper 615

Report
Discrete Choice, Complete Markets, and Equilibrium
Mongey, Simon; Waugh, Michael E. (2024-02-07)
This paper characterizes the allocations that emerge in general equilibrium economies populated by households with preferences of the additive random utility type that make discrete consumption, employment or spatial decisions. We start with a complete markets economy where households can trade claims contingent upon the realizations of their preference shocks. We (i) establish a first and second welfare theorem, (ii) illustrate that in the absence of ex-ante trade, discrete choice economies are generically inefficient, (iii) show that complete markets are not necessary and a much smaller set ...
Staff Report , Paper 656

Working Paper
Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data
Spiegel, Mark M.; Fernald, John G.; Hsu, Eric (2015-09-21)
How reliable are China?s GDP and other data? We address this question by using trading-partner exports to China as an independent measure of its economic activity from 2000-2014. We find that the information content of Chinese GDP improves markedly after 2008. We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-12

Working Paper
Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?
Munyan, Teyanna; Wilson, Beth Anne; Martin, Robert F. (2015-09-11)
This paper studies the impact of recessions on the longer-run level of output using data on 23 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We find that severe recessions have a sustained and sizable negative impact on the level of output. This sustained decline in output raises questions about the underlying properties of output and how we model trend output or potential around recessions. We find little support for the view that output rises faster than trend immediately following recessions to close the output gap. Indeed, we find little evidence that growth is faster following recessions ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1145

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