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Working Paper
Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data
Spiegel, Mark M.; Fernald, John G.; Hsu, Eric (2015-09-21)
How reliable are China?s GDP and other data? We address this question by using trading-partner exports to China as an independent measure of its economic activity from 2000-2014. We find that the information content of Chinese GDP improves markedly after 2008. We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-12

Working Paper
Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession
Kurtzman, Robert J.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Decker, Ryan A.; Lutz, Byron F. (2020-12-04)
Using data from 14 government sources, we develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs—the Paycheck Protection Program, the Main Street Lending Program, the Corporate Credit Facilities, and the Municipal Lending Facilities—relate to these classes of economic activity in the United States. The classes targeted by these programs are vast—accounting for 97 percent of total U.S. employment—though entityspecific financial criteria limit coverage within specific ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-099

Journal Article
What Explains Lifetime Earnings Differences Across Individuals?
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2019-01)
Expected lifetime earnings are a key factor in many individual decisions, such as whether or not to go to college and what kind of occupation to pursue. However, lifetime earnings differ widely across individuals, and uncovering the factors that explain these differences can be challenging. Some characteristics, such as race and sex, are observable. But other intangible characteristics, such as work performance, are more difficult to quantify. To what degree observable characteristics explain lifetime earnings is an empirical question. {{p}} Jos Mustre-del-Ro and Emily Pollard use a unique ...
Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 35-56

Report
Pricing Inequality
Mongey, Simon; Waugh, Michael E. (2025-01-31)
This paper studies household inequality and product market power in dynamic, general equilibrium. In our model, households’ price elasticities of demand endogenously vary with wealth. Heterogeneous firms set their price as oligopolistic competitors given the endogenous distribution of demand. A firm’s market power varies with the distribution of demand as households with different elasticities sort into high- and low-price varieties. Under standard preferences, larger firms’ products are more appealing, sell at higher prices, to more households, and a relatively richer customer base, ...
Staff Report , Paper 664

Working Paper
Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression
MacGee, James; Amaral, Pedro S. (2016-02-12)
Canadian GNP per capita fell by roughly a third between 1928 and 1933. Although the decline and the slow recovery of GNP resemble the American Great Depression, trade was more important in Canada, as exports and imports each accounted for roughly a quarter of Canadian GNP in 1928. The fall in the trade share of GNP of roughly 30 percent between 1928 and 1933 was accompanied by a decline of over 20 percent in the relative prices of exports and imports relative to nontraded goods. We develop a three-sector small open economy model, where wages in the nontraded and import competing sectors ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1606

Working Paper
The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks
Gortz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher; Lubik, Thomas A. (2024-11)
We document changes to the pattern of technology shocks and their propagation in post-war U.S. data. Using an agnostic identification procedure, we show that the dominant shock driving total factor productivity (TFP) is akin to a diffusion or news shock and that shock transmission has changed over time. Specifically, the behavior of hours worked is notably different before and after the 1980s. In addition, the importance of technology shocks as a major driver of aggregate fluctuations has increased over time. They play a dominant role in the second subsample, but much less so in the first. We ...
Working Paper

Journal Article
As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2019-11-13)
The United States has faced two recent downturns in manufacturing: one from 2014 to 2015 and one that has been ongoing since 2018. We examine consumption growth at the state level to see how consumers have responded to the current downturn relative to the last. We find that during the current downturn, changes in consumption growth at the state level have been negatively correlated with the state?s share of workers in manufacturing. In contrast, we find the opposite relationship during the 2014?15 downturn.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Partial Homeownership: A Quantitative Analysis
Brandsaas, Eirik E.; Kvaerner, Jens (2024-08-28)
Partial Ownership (PO), which allows households to buy a fraction of a home and rent the remainder, is increasing in many countries with housing affordability challenges. We incorporate an existing for-profit PO contract into a life-cycle model to quantify its impact on homeownership, households’ welfare, and its implications for financial stability. We have the following results: 1) PO increases homeownership rates. 2) Willingness to pay increases with housing unaffordability and is highest among low-income and renting households. 3) PO increases aggregate debt as renters become partial ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-070

Report
Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework
Violante, Giovanni L.; Heathcote, Jonathan; Storesletten, Kjetil (2014-01-31)
What shapes the optimal degree of progressivity of the tax and transfer system? On the one hand, a progressive tax system can counteract inequality in initial conditions and substitute for imperfect private insurance against idiosyncratic earnings risk. At the same time, progressivity reduces incentives to work and to invest in skills, and aggravates the externality associated with valued public expenditures. We develop a tractable equilibrium model that features all of these trade-offs. The analytical expressions we derive for social welfare deliver a transparent understanding of how ...
Staff Report , Paper 496

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