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Discussion Paper
Economic Expectations Grow Less Polarized since the 2016 Election
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Armantier, Olivier; Neubauer, Michael; Skandalis, Daphne (2019-05-13)
In two previous blog posts (from January 2017 and December 2017), we examined political polarization in economic expectations in the period immediately after the 2016 presidential election using the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Today, we begin a two-part series that revisits the issue. In this post, we provide an update on how economic expectations have evolved in counties where a plurality voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and counties where a plurality voted for Hillary Clinton. In a second post, we will look at how economic expectations differed in the run-up to the 2018 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190513

Discussion Paper
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting
Koşar, Gizem; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle; Pomerantz, Rachel; Armantier, Olivier; Skandalis, Daphne (2020-04-06)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200406b

Discussion Paper
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Smith, Kyle; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-05-26)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, households face significant uncertainty about their personal situations and the general economic environment when forming ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200526b

Report
Determinants of college major choice: identification using an information experiment
Wiswall, Matthew; Zafar, Basit (2011)
This paper studies the determinants of college major choice using an experimentally generated panel of beliefs, obtained by providing students with information on the true population distribution of various major-specific characteristics. Students logically revise their beliefs in response to the information, and their subjective beliefs about future major choice are associated with beliefs about their own earnings and ability. We estimate a rich model of college major choice using the panel of beliefs data. While expected earnings and perceived ability are a significant determinant of major ...
Staff Reports , Paper 500

Report
Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: some consequences of debt management policy
Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce (2011-09-01)
This paper examines how the scale and composition of public debt can affect economies that implement a combination of ?passive? monetary policy and ?active? fiscal policy. This policy configuration is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest in the cases of the U.S. and Japanese economies. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce macroeconomic instability under a range of policies specified as simple rules. However, interest rate pegs in combination with active fiscal policies almost always ensure macroeconomic stability. This ...
Staff Reports , Paper 515

Report
Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge
Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce (2013-10-01)
This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. The theory is similar in spirit to, but distinct from, unpleasant monetarist arithmetic and the fiscal theory of the price level. Because the assumption of imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, details of fiscal policy, such as the average scale and composition of the public debt, matter for inflation. As a result, fiscal policy constrains the efficacy of monetary policy. Heavily indebted economies with debt maturity structures observed in many countries require ...
Staff Reports , Paper 649

Report
Intended college attendance: evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs
Bleemer, Zachary; Zafar, Basit (2015-09-01)
Despite a robust college premium, college attendance rates in the United States have remained stagnant and exhibit a substantial socioeconomic gradient. We focus on information gaps?specifically, incomplete information about college benefits and costs?as a potential explanation for these patterns. For this purpose, we conduct an information experiment about college returns and costs embedded within a representative survey of U.S. household heads. We show that, at the baseline, perceptions of college costs and benefits are severely and systematically biased: 75 percent of our respondents ...
Staff Reports , Paper 739

Report
Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts
Laster, David S.; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun (1997-03-01)
This paper develops a model of macroeconomic forecasting in which the wages firms pay their forecasters are a function of their accuracy as well as the publicity they generate for their employers by being correct. In the resulting Nash equilibrium, forecasters with identical models, information, and incentives nevertheless produce a variety of predictions in order to maximize their expected wages. In the case of heterogeneous incentives, the forecasters whose wages are most closely tied to publicity, as opposed to accuracy, produce the forecasts that deviate most from the consensus. We find ...
Staff Reports , Paper 21

Report
The term structure of expectations and bond yields
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Moench, Emanuel (2016-05-01)
Bond yields can be decomposed into expected short rates and term premiums. We directly measure the former using all available U.S. professional forecasts and obtain the latter as the difference between bond yields and survey-based expected short rates. While the behavior of nominal and real short rate expectations is consistent with standard macroeconomic theory, term premiums account for the bulk of the cross-sectional and time series variation in yields. They also largely explain the yield curve's reaction to a host of structural economic shocks. This dramatic failure of the expectations ...
Staff Reports , Paper 775

Report
Home price expectations and behavior: evidence from a randomized information experiment
Armona, Luis; Fuster, Andreas; Zafar, Basit (2016-10-19)
Home price expectations are believed to play an important role in housing dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of how they are formed and how they affect behavior. Using a unique ?information experiment? embedded in an online survey, this paper investigates how consumers? home price expectations respond to past home price growth and how they impact investment decisions. After eliciting respondents? initial beliefs about past and future local home price changes, we present a random subset of the respondents with factual information about past (one- or five-year) changes and then ...
Staff Reports , Paper 798

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