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Discussion Paper
Exploring the use of anonymized consumer credit information to estimate economic conditions: an application of big data
Wilshusen, Stephanie M. (2015-11-06)
The emergence of high-frequency administrative data and other big data offers an opportunity for improvements to economic forecasting models. This paper considers the potential advantages and limitations of using information contained in anonymized consumer credit reports for improving estimates of current and future economic conditions for various geographic areas and demographic markets. Aggregate consumer credit information is found to be correlated with macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, retail sales, and employment and can serve as leading indicators such that lagged ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 15-5

Working Paper
The Household Expenditure Response to a Consumption Tax Rate Increase
Cashin, David B. (2017-03-28)
This study measures the effect of an increase in Japan's Value Added Tax rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The analysis finds that durable and storable expenditures surged in the month prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply upon implementation, but quickly returned to their previous long-run levels. Non-storable non-durable expenditures increased slightly in the month prior to the tax rate increase, but were otherwise unresponsive. A dynamic structural model of household consumption reveals that the observed expenditure ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-035

Working Paper
How Data Breaches Affect Consumer Credit
Vogan, Michael; Mikhed, Vyacheslav (2017-03-23)
We use the 2012 South Carolina Department of Revenue data breach as a natural experiment to study how data breaches and news coverage about them affect consumers? interactions with the credit market and their use of credit. We find that some consumers directly exposed to the breach protected themselves against potential losses from future fraudulent use of stolen information by monitoring their files and freezing access to their credit reports. However, these consumers continued their regular use of existing credit cards and did not switch lenders. The response of consumers exposed to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-6

Working Paper
The Behavioral Relationship Between Mortgage Prepayment and Default
Maingi, Ramain Quinn; Hall, Arden (2021-03-22)
An implication of the dual trigger theory of default is that mortgage borrowers who experience an unexpected financial reverse will prepay their mortgage rather than default if their equity in the house is positive. We test this idea with a new data set created by matching mortgage servicing records and credit bureau records to classify prepayments by what happens subsequently. In particular, we can identify a subset of prepayments that seems consistent with the dual trigger theory. If the theory is correct, these prepayments should exhibit similarities to defaults in the data set rather than ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-12

Report
Do consumers rely more heavily on credit cards while unemployed?
Cole, Allison (2016-12-20)
Leading up to the Great Recession, households increased their credit card debt by over 16 percent ($121 billion) during the five-year period from 2004 to 2009. The unemployment rate simultaneously began to rise in 2008, increasing from 5.0 percent in January 2008 to a high of 10.0 percent in October of 2009. During the recovery, from 2009 to 2014, credit card debt fell by more than 25 percent, as the unemployment rate returned to near prerecession levels. These coincident developments have led to speculation that consumers facing unemployment or job uncertainty may have increased their ...
Research Data Report , Paper 16-6

Working Paper
Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data
Burke, Mary A.; Ozdagli, Ali K. (2021-08-03)
Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the U.S. between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inflation. Moreover, spending decreases with expected unemployment. These results imply a limited stimulating ...
Working Papers , Paper 2110

Working Paper
Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market
Stanton, Richard; Laufer, Steven; Pence, Karen M.; Kim, You Suk; Wallace, Nancy (2018-03-08)
Non-banks originated about half of all mortgages in 2016, and 75% of mortgages insured by the FHA or VA. Both shares are much higher than those observed at any point in the 2000s. We describe in this paper how non-bank mortgage companies are vulnerable to liquidity pressures in both their loan origination and servicing activities, and we document that this sector in aggregate appears to have minimal resources to bring to bear in a stress scenario. We show how the same liquidity issues unfolded during the financial crisis, leading to the failure of many non-bank companies, requests for ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-016

Working Paper
On Intergenerational Immobility : Evidence that Adult Credit Health Reflects the Childhood Environment
Goodman, Sarena; Volz, Alice Henriques; Mezza, Alvaro (2017-03)
Using a novel dataset that links socioeconomic background to future credit, postsecondary education, and federal student loan and grant records, we document that, even though it is not and cannot be used by credit agencies in assigning risk, background is a strong predictor of adult credit health. A relationship remains upon inclusion of achievement, attainment, and debt management metrics. These findings reveal a new dimension along which childhood circumstances persist into adulthood and imply that the many important contexts in which credit scores are relied upon to evaluate individuals ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-032

Working Paper
Integrated household surveys: an assessment of U.S. methods and an innovation
Samphantharak, Krislert; Townsend, Robert M.; Schuh, Scott (2017-05-22)
We present a vision for improving household financial surveys by integrating responses from questionnaires more completely with financial statements and combining them with payments data from diaries. Integrated household financial accounts?-balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows?-are used to assess the degree of integration in leading U.S. household surveys, focusing on inconsistencies in measures of the change in cash. Diaries of consumer payment choice can improve dynamic integration. Using payments data, we construct a statement of liquidity flows: a detailed ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-7

Report
How do speed and security influence consumers' payment behavior?
Stavins, Joanna; Schuh, Scott (2015-02-05)
The Federal Reserve Financial Services (FRFS) strategic plan for 2012-2016 named improvements in the end-to-end speed and security of the payment system as two of its policy initiatives. End-to-end in this context means that for the first time end-users are explicitly included. Earlier versions of the strategy plan were circulated for public comment, and the feedback received by FRFS specifically identified a need for further research. This brief draws upon new data from the 2013 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice and employs econometric modeling and simulation to complement FRFS-commissioned ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-1

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