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Working Paper
News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact
Kuester, Keith; Schoenle, Raphael; Dietrich, Alexander; Muller, Gernot J. (2021-12-22)
A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S. economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumer views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty amplifies the pandemic recession by a factor of three. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-12R

Working Paper
What Do Survey Data Tell Us about US Businesses?
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; McGrattan, Ellen R.; Bhandari, Anmol (2020-01)
This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. We compare survey responses of business owners with available data from administrative tax records, brokered private business sales, and publicly traded company filings and document problems due to nonrepresentative samples and measurement errors across several surveys, subsamples, and years. We find that the discrepancies are economically relevant for the statistics of interest. We investigate reasons for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-021

Working Paper
Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession
Kurtzman, Robert J.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Decker, Ryan A.; Lutz, Byron F. (2020-12-04)
Using data from 14 government sources, we develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs—the Paycheck Protection Program, the Main Street Lending Program, the Corporate Credit Facilities, and the Municipal Lending Facilities—relate to these classes of economic activity in the United States. The classes targeted by these programs are vast—accounting for 97 percent of total U.S. employment—though entityspecific financial criteria limit coverage within specific ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-099

Working Paper
Modeling anchoring effects in sequential Likert scale questions
Hitczenko, Marcin (2013-12-09)
Surveys in many different research fields rely on sequences of Likert scale questions to assess individuals' general attitudes toward a set of related topics. Most analyses of responses to such a series do not take into account the potential measurement error introduced by the context effect we dub "sequential anchoring," which occurs when the rating for one question influences the rating given to the following question by favoring similar ratings. The presence of sequential anchoring can cause systematic bias in the study of relative ratings. We develop a latent-variable framework for ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-15

Working Paper
Savings Versus Debt: The Effects of Survey Question Order on Consumers’ Reported Financial Priorities
Akana, Tom; Daniel, Will; Lee, Amber (2024-10-01)
Survey after survey indicates that building savings and reducing debt are among the top financial goals for many Americans. However, because of limited resources and inherent trade-offs, achieving these two goals can be challenging and often requires prioritizing one goal over the other. We conduct two survey experiments with national samples of U.S. adults to understand how individuals balance saving and paying off debt, while taking into account survey context and question effects that might influence self-reports of behaviors. Both studies find a significant question order effect, in which ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-17

Working Paper
Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-06-23)
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-21

Report
Estimating Population Means in the 2012 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice
Hitczenko, Marcin (2015-04-20)
This report examines the effect of adding to a longitudinal panel on estimates of population parameters in the 2012 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC) more than 1,000 newly recruited respondents specifically targeted to fill segments of the U.S. population that tend to be underbanked and underrepresented in the longitudinal panel. In many ways, the new respondents have fundamentally different characteristics from the ongoing respondents. To minimize confounding sources of change to annual estimates when making comparisons across years, the official 2012 SCPC publication was based on the ...
Consumer Payments Research Data Reports , Paper 2015-02

Working Paper
Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
Dietrich, Alexander; Knotek, Edward S.; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael (2022-06-22)
Using novel survey evidence on consumer inflation expectations disaggregated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) categories, we document the paradox that consumers' aggregate inflation expectations usually exceed any individual category expectation. We explore procedures for aggregating category inflation expectations, and find that the inconsistency between aggregate and aggregated inflation expectations rises with subjective uncertainty and is systematically related to socioeconomic characteristics. Overall, our results are inconsistent with the notion that consumers' aggregate ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-20

Working Paper
Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
Ma, Eva; Hsu, Joanne W.; Sjoblom, Micah; Chang, Andrew C.; Bachtell, Kate (2024-04-19)
To encourage survey participation and improve sample representativeness, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) offers an unconditional pre-paid monetary incentive and separate post-paid incentive upon survey completion. We conducted a pre-registered between-subject randomized control experiment within the 2022 SCF, with at least 1,200 households per experimental group, to examine whether changing the pre-paid incentive structure affects survey outcomes. We assess the effects of: (1) altering the total dollar value of the pre-paid incentive (“incentive effect”), (2) giving two identical ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-023

Working Paper
Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever
Sharp, Robert; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Pinto, Santiago (2015-09-03)
We study diffusion indices constructed from qualitative surveys to provide real-time assessments of various aspects of economic activity. In particular, we highlight the role of diffusion indices as estimates of change in a quasi extensive margin, and characterize their distribution, focusing on the uncertainty implied by both sampling and the polarization of participants' responses. Because qualitative tendency surveys generally cover multiple questions around a topic, a key aspect of this uncertainty concerns the coincidence of responses, or the degree to which polarization comoves, across ...
Working Paper , Paper 15-9

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