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Estimating dynamic panel models: backing out the Nickell Bias
We propose a novel estimator for the dynamic panel model, which solves the failure of strict exogeneity by calculating the bias in the first-order conditions as a function of the autoregressive parameter and solving the resulting equation. We show that this estimator performs well as compared with approaches in current use. We also propose a general method for including predetermined variables in fixed-effects panel regressions that appears to perform well.
ivcrc: An Instrumental Variables Estimator for the Correlated Random Coefficients Model
We present the ivcrc command, which implements an instrumental variables (IV) estimator for the linear correlated random coefficients (CRC) model. This model is a natural generalization of the standard linear IV model that allows for endogenous, multivalued treatments and unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects. The proposed estimator uses recent semiparametric identification results that allow for flexible functional forms and permit instruments that may be binary, discrete, or continuous. The command also allows for the estimation of varying coefficients regressions, which are ...
Pre-event Trends in the Panel Event-study Design
We consider a linear panel event-study design in which unobserved confounds may be related both to the outcome and to the policy variable of interest. We provide sufficient conditions to identify the causal effect of the policy by exploiting covariates related to the policy only through the confounds. Our model implies a set of moment equations that are linear in parameters. The effect of the policy can be estimated by 2SLS, and causal inference is valid even when endogeneity leads to pre-event trends (?pre-trends?) in the outcome. Alternative approaches perform poorly in our simulations
Real Rates and Consumption Smoothing in a Low Interest Rate Environment: The Case of Japan
We study the dynamics of consumption, the real interest rate, and measures of labor input in Japan over the period from 1985-2014. We identify structural breaks in macroeconomic aggregates during the 1990s and associate them with the zero interest rate policy pursued by the Bank of Japan and the surprise increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997. Formal estimation using the Generalized Methods of Moments shows that the mid-1990s are characterized by breaks in the structural parameters governing household consumption and labor supply decisions. Specifically, following the tax hike and ...