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Discussion Paper
The CARES Act Unemployment Insurance Program during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fang, Lei; Xie, Zoe; Nie, Jun (2020-12-21)
The outbreak of COVID-19 led to widespread shutdowns in March and April 2020 and an historically unprecedented increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) through the CARES Act. This article summarizes the key policy-relevant results from Fang, Nie, and Xie (2020), whose research examines the interactions of virus infection risk, shutdown policy, and increased UI generosity.
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-16

Discussion Paper
Will COVID-19 Erase Black Workers' Labor Market Gains?
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2021-02-17)
Black workers experience what is known as a "high-beta" effect across the business cycle. They are hit harder during recessions but benefit more from the momentum of a recovery, especially during particularly strong economic periods. For three years preceding the COVID-19 recession, the United States was enjoying what has been referred to as a "hot" economy. During this time, Black workers regained some of the ground lost in labor market outcomes during the Great Recession, relative to white workers. The sudden onset of the COVID-19 recession reversed that progress. Even though the ...
Policy Hub* , Paper 2021-2

Discussion Paper
Introducing the Unemployment Claims Monitor
Andreason, Stuart (2020-05-06)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unparalleled economic slowdown and record numbers of layoffs. Even casual economic observers have seen reports of millions of workers filing claims for unemployment insurance—between the weeks of March 21, 2020 and April 25, 2020, 19 percent of workers covered by unemployment insurance filed an initial claim—but what exactly does this mean for unemployment?1 It is important to understand exactly what an unemployment insurance (UI) claim represents and how it provides information on what is happening in the economy.
Workforce Currents , Paper 2020-04

Discussion Paper
Reemploying the Unemployed
Andreason, Stuart (2020-04-02)
From March 14 to 28, roughly 9.9 million people (when seasonally adjusted) filed new claims for unemployment insurance across the country.1 That represents roughly 3 percent of the entire population of the United States actively filing for unemployment insurance in two weeks. In addition, the vast proportion of people who are eligible for unemployment insurance do not make a claim. During “normal” times, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 74 percent of unemployed workers do not file a claim, primarily because they think they are not eligible for unemployment insurance.
Workforce Currents , Paper 2020-03

Journal Article
Who Benefited Most from the CARES Act Unemployment Insurance Provisions?
Fang, Lei; Xie, Zoe; Nie, Jun (2022-04-07)
The regular unemployment insurance (UI) program in the United States requires workers to have a minimum amount of earnings as well as a sufficient work history before unemployment. Low-wage workers are more likely to have a short work history before unemployment because they are more likely to be separated from their jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) under the CARES Act temporarily eliminated the requirements for minimum past earnings and length of employment, thus making many low-wage workers who were ineligible for UI under the regular program temporarily eligible. The extra ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 4 , Pages 6

Journal Article
The CARES Act Unemployment Insurance Program during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fang, Lei; Xie, Zoe; Nie, Jun (2020-12-21)
The outbreak of COVID-19 led to widespread shutdowns in March and April 2020 and an historically unprecedented increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) through the CARES Act. This article summarizes the key policy-relevant results from Fang, Nie, and Xie (2020), whose research examines the interactions of virus infection risk, shutdown policy, and increased UI generosity.
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 16 , Pages 7

Journal Article
Will COVID-19 Erase Black Workers' Labor Market Gains?
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2021-02-17)
Black workers experience what is known as a "high-beta" effect across the business cycle. They are hit harder during recessions but benefit more from the momentum of a recovery, especially during particularly strong economic periods. For three years preceding the COVID-19 recession, the United States was enjoying what has been referred to as a "hot" economy. During this time, Black workers regained some of the ground lost in labor market outcomes during the Great Recession, relative to white workers. The sudden onset of the COVID-19 recession reversed that progress. Even though the ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 2 , Pages 9

Working Paper
The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Eligibility in Equilibrium
Griffy, Benjamin; Chao, Ying; Wiczer, David (2025-07-14)
In the United States, workers whose past earnings were below a threshold are generally ineligible for unemployment insurance (UI), creating a discontinuous jump in the value of being unemployed. Using a regression discontinuity design with administrative panel data, we estimate a sizable local effect from UI eligibility on earnings in the next employer, around 10 percent per quarter. This evidence, however, understates UI’s causal effect because of endogenous non-compliance. It also does not distinguish between underlying reasons for higher re-employment earnings, a higher share of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-6

Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Time-Consistent Unemployment Insurance
Xie, Zoe; Pei, Yun (2016-11-01)
During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these increases. Because of the trade-off between insurance and job search incentives, the classic time-inconsistency problem arises. During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these extensions. Because of the trade-off between insurance and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-11

Working Paper
Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy
Hotchkiss, Julie L.; Moore, Robert E. (2018-06-01)
This paper explores evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a high-pressure economy during the preceding expansion. Breaking total exposure into intensity and duration suggests that these two dimensions have differing impacts. However, the benefits of exposure are not enough to overcome the greater negative impact of high unemployment periods on labor market outcomes of disadvantaged groups, making extension of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-1

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