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Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M.
(2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-006
Working Paper
Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old
Fujiwara, Ippei; Hori, Shunsuke; Waki, Yuichiro
(2019-11-19)
How does a grayer society affect the political decision-making regarding inflation rates? Is deflation preferred as a society ages? In order to answer these questions, we compute the optimal inflation rates for the young and the old respectively, and explore how they change with demographic factors, by using a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations. According to our simulation results, there indeed exists a tension between the young and the old on the optimal inflation rates, with the optimal inflation rates differing between generations. The rates can be significantly different ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 372
Working Paper
Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations
Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M.
(2018-05-01)
Immigrants? descendants typically assimilate toward mainstream social and economic outcomes across generations. Hispanics in the United States are a possible exception to this pattern. Although there is a growing literature on intergenerational progress, or lack thereof, in education and earnings among Hispanics, there is little research on employment differences across immigrant generations. Using data from 1996 to 2017, this study reveals considerable differences in Hispanics? employment rates across immigrant generations. Hispanic immigrant men tend to have higher employment rates than ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1809
Working Paper
Beautiful City: Leisure Amenities and Urban Growth
Salz, Albert; Carlino, Gerald A.
(2019-03-12)
Modern urban economic theory and policymakers are coming to see the provision of consumer-leisure amenities as a way to attract population, especially the highly skilled and their employers. However, past studies have arguably only provided indirect evidence of the importance of leisure amenities for urban development. In this paper, we propose and validate the number of tourist trips and the number of crowdsourced picturesque locations as measures of consumer revealed preferences for local lifestyle amenities. Urban population growth in the 1990-2010 period was about 10 percentage points ...
Working Papers
, Paper 19-16
Working Paper
Peer Effects and Marriage Formation
Wozniak, Abigail; Baker, Michael T.; Carter, Susan P.
(2024-12-02)
A large literature links marriage to later life outcomes for children and adults. Marriage has declined markedly in the U.S. over the last 50 years, particularly among individuals with less than a baccalaureate degree, yet the causes of the decline are not well understood. In this paper we provide causal evidence on one potential mechanism for the observed marriage rate patterns: peer effects. We use administrative personnel data from the U.S. Army to study how peers influence marriage decisions for junior enlisted soldiers arriving to their first assignment from 2001-2018, a setting which ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers
, Paper 107
Working Paper
How Foreign- and U.S.-Born Latinos Fare During Recessions and Recoveries
Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline
(2021-04-02)
Latinos make up the nation’s largest ethnic minority group. The majority of Latinos are U.S. born, making the progress and well-being of Latinos no longer just a question of immigrant assimilation but also of the effectiveness of U.S. educational institutions and labor markets in equipping young Latinos to move out of the working class and into the middle class. One significant headwind to progress among Latinos is recessions. Economic outcomes of Latinos are far more sensitive to the business cycle than are outcomes for non-Hispanic whites. Latinos also have higher poverty rates than ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2104
Working Paper
Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Mortality
Jones, John Bailey; Li, Yue
(2020-07-17)
Using a heterogeneous-agent, life-cycle model of Social Security claiming, labor supply and saving, we consider the implications of lifespan inequality for Social Security reform. Quantitative experiments show that welfare is maximized when baseline benefits are independent of lifetime earnings, the payroll tax cap is kept roughly unchanged, and claiming adjustments are reduced. Eliminating the earnings test and the income taxation of Social Security benefits provides additional gains. The Social Security system that would maximize welfare in a "2050 demographics" scenario, characterized by ...
Working Paper
, Paper 20-09
Working Paper
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession
Lofton, Olivia; Valletta, Robert G.; Daly, Mary C.; Bengali, Leila
(2021-02-25)
People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequateincome. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion thatfollowed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current PopulationSurvey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansionbolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor marketengagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell duringthe expansion. On balance, our results suggest ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2021-05
Working Paper
Household formation over time: evidence from two cohorts of young adults
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose
(2016-11-15)
This paper analyzes household formation in the United States using data from two cohorts of the national Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)?the 1979 cohort and the 1997 cohort. The analysis focuses on how various demographic and economic factors impact household formation both within cohorts and over time across cohorts. The results show that there are substantial differences over time in the share of young adults living with their parents. Differences in housing costs and business-cycle conditions can explain up to 70 percent of the difference in household-formation rates across cohorts. ...
Working Papers
, Paper 16-17
Working Paper
The Consequences of Gentrification: A Focus on Residents’ Financial Health in Philadelphia
Ding, Lei; Hwang, Jackelyn
(2016-07-29)
There have been considerable debate and controversy about the effects of gentrification on neighborhoods and the people residing in them. This paper draws on a unique large-scale consumer credit database to examine the relationship between gentrification and the credit scores of residents in the City of Philadelphia from 2002 to 2014. We find that gentrification is positively associated with changes in residents? credit scores on average for those who stay, and this relationship is stronger for residents in neighborhoods in the more advanced stages of gentrification. Gentrification is also ...
Working Papers
, Paper 16-22
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