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Working Paper
Fiscal Forward Guidance: A Case for Selective Transparency
Waki, Yuichiro; Fujiwara, Ippei (2017-06-01)
Should the fiscal authority use forward guidance to reduce future policy uncertainty perceived by private agents? Using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, we examine the welfare effects of announcing future fiscal policy shocks. Analytical as well as numerical experiments show that selective transparency is desirable?announcing future fiscal policy shocks that are distortionary can be detrimental to ex ante social welfare, whereas announcing nondistortionary shocks generally improves welfare. Sizable welfare gains are found with constructive ambiguity regarding the timing of a ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 318

Working Paper
Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data
Krimmel, Jacob; Bricker, Jesse; Sabelhaus, John Edward; Volz, Alice Henriques (2015-04-28)
Administrative tax data indicate that U.S. top income and wealth shares are substantial and increasing rapidly (Piketty and Saez 2003, Saez and Zucman 2014). A key reason for using administrative data to measure top shares is to overcome the under-representation of families at the very top that plagues most household surveys. However, using tax records alone restricts the unit of analysis for measuring economic resources, limits the concepts of income and wealth being measured, and imposes a rigid correlation between income and wealth. The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) solves the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-30

Working Paper
Optimal Income Taxation: An Urban Economics Perspective
Huggett, Mark; Luo, Wenlan (2021-07-23)
We derive an optimal labor income tax rate formula for urban models in which tax rates are determined by traditional forces plus a new term arising from urban forces: house price, migration and agglomeration effects. Based on the earnings distributions and housing costs in large and small US cities, we find that in a benchmark model (i) optimal income tax rates are U-shaped, (ii) urban forces serve to raise optimal tax rates at all income levels and (iii) adopting an optimal tax system induces agents with low skills to leave large, productive cities. While agglomeration effects enter the ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 51

Working Paper
State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity
Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar; Cloyne, James (2023-02-07)
An impulse response is the dynamic average effect of an intervention across horizons. We use the well-known Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to explore a response’s heterogeneity over time and over states of the economy. This can be implemented with a simple extension to the usual local projection specification that nevertheless keeps the model linear in parameters. Using our new decomposition-based approach, we show how to unpack heterogeneity in the fiscal multiplier, an object that at any point in time may depend on a number of potentially correlated factors, including existing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-05

Journal Article
On the Aggregate Implications of Removing Barriers to Formality
Hamann, Franz; Granda Carvajal, Catalina (2020-05)
This article examines the aggregate implications of several policies aimed at removing barriers to formality. To this end, we build a dynamic equilibrium model in which heterogeneous agents choose to work for a wage or operate a technology in the formal or informal sector, based on the costs and benefits associated with these occupational choices.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 203-220

Report
Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Nygaard, Vegard; Conesa, Juan Carlos; Raveendranathan, Gajendran (2019-05-08)
We develop and calibrate an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of exogenous trends in increasing college attainment, decreasing fertility, and increasing longevity between 2005 and 2100. While all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio, increasing college attainment has different macroeconomic implications because it increases labor productivity. Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the ...
Staff Report , Paper 583

Working Paper
A Note on Aggregating Preferences for Redistribution
Carroll, Daniel R.; Luduvice, Andre; Young, Eric (2024-11-25)
The policy predictions of standard heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models are often at odds with observed policies. We use the 2021 General Social Survey to investigate the drivers of individuals' preferences over taxes and redistribution. We find that these preferences are more strongly associated with political identity than with economic status. We discuss the implications for quantitative macroeconomic models with endogenous policy determination.
Working Papers , Paper 24-27

Report
Fiscal Progressivity of the U.S. Federal and State Governments
Fleck, Johannes; Heathcote, Jonathan; Storesletten, Kjetil; Violante, Giovanni L. (2025-01-16)
Combining a variety of survey and administrative data, this paper measures the progressivity of taxes and transfers at the U.S. federal level and separately for each state. The findings are as follows. (i) The federal tax and transfer system is progressive. (ii) State and local tax and transfer systems are close to proportional, on average. (iii) There is substantial heterogeneity in tax levels and tax progressivity across states. (iv) States that are funded mostly by sales and property taxes tend to have regressive tax systems and low average tax rates. States that are funded mostly by ...
Staff Report , Paper 663

Working Paper
Assessment Frequency and Equity of the Real Property Tax: Latest Evidence from Philadelphia
Hou, Yulin; Ding, Lei; Schwegman, David; Barca, Alaina (2021-12-08)
Philadelphia’s Actual Value Initiative, adopted in 2013, createsa unique opportunity for us to test whether reassessments at short intervals to true market value and taxing by such values improve equity. Based on a difference-in-differences framework using parcel-level data matched with transactions in Philadelphia and 15 comparable cities, this study finds positive evidence on equity outcomes from more regular revaluations. The quality of assessment, as measured by the coefficient of dispersion, improves substantially after 2014, although the extent of improvement varies across ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-43

Working Paper
Targeted Relief: Geography and Timing of Emergency Rental Assistance
Figinski, Theodore F.; Keenan, Sydney; Sweeney, Richard James; Troland, Erin (2024-07-16)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress established the Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program, which provided nearly $45 billion to prevent evictions and increase housing stability. We provide new evidence on the implementation of ERA by examining the fine-grained geographic distribution of ERA funds and the timing of ERA expenditures by state and local governments. Using administrative data on ERA transactions, we find that ERA sent more funds per renting household to census tracts with higher pre-pandemic eviction filing rates, higher poverty rates, higher shares of Black ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-055

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