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Working Paper
Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
Kamal, Fariha; Monarch, Ryan; Handley, Kyle (2020-02-14)
We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and they represent 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1270

Working Paper
Tax Policy Endogeneity: Evidence from R&D Tax Credits
Chang, Andrew C. (2014-11-21)
Because policymakers may consider the state of the economy when setting taxes, endogeneity bias can arise in regression models that estimate relationships between economic variables and taxes. This paper quantifies the policy endogeneity bias and estimates the impact of R&D tax incentives on R&D expenditures at the U.S. state level. Identifying tax variation comes from changes in federal corporate tax laws that heterogeneously impact state-level R&D tax incentives due to the simultaneity of state and federal corporate taxes. With this exogenous variation, my preferred estimates indicate a 1 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-101

Working Paper
The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates
Dobridge, Christine L.; Kennedy, Patrick; Landefeld, Paul; Mortenson, Jacob (2023-12-15)
We study changes in tax positions for U.S. C corporations following passage of the 2017 tax legislation commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). While existing research has focused primarily on publicly traded companies, data limitations have prevented more holistic analyses of the corporate sector. Using a representative sample of U.S. corporate tax returns, we highlight how trends in effective tax rates (ETRs) and exposure to the legislationâ€™s main provisions varied for public, private, multinational, domestic, and large versus small firms. We document several novel facts, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-078

Working Paper
Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data
Volz, Alice Henriques; Sabelhaus, John Edward; Bricker, Jesse; Krimmel, Jacob (2015-04-28)
Administrative tax data indicate that U.S. top income and wealth shares are substantial and increasing rapidly (Piketty and Saez 2003, Saez and Zucman 2014). A key reason for using administrative data to measure top shares is to overcome the under-representation of families at the very top that plagues most household surveys. However, using tax records alone restricts the unit of analysis for measuring economic resources, limits the concepts of income and wealth being measured, and imposes a rigid correlation between income and wealth. The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) solves the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-30

Working Paper
Effects of Gentrification on Homeowners: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Ding, Lei; Hwang, Jackelyn (2020-04-16)
A major overhaul of the property tax system in 2013 in the city of Philadelphia has generated significant variations in the amount of property taxes across properties. This exogenous policy shock provides a unique opportunity to identify the causal effects of gentrification, which is often accompanied by increased property values, on homeowners’ tax payment behavior and residential mobility. The analysis, based on a difference-in-differences framework, suggests that gentrification leads to a higher risk of delinquency on homeowners’ tax bills on average, but there was no sign of a ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-16

Working Paper
Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labor Supply?
Yang, Fang; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Borella, Margherita (2020-10-23)
In the United States, both taxes and old age Social Security benefits depend on one's marital status and tend to discourage the labor supply of the secondary earner. To what extent are these provisions holding back female labor supply? We estimate a rich life cycle model of labor supply and savings for couples and singles using the method of simulated moments (MSM) on the 1945 and 1955 birth-year cohorts and use it to evaluate what would happen without these provisions. Our model matches well the life cycle profiles of labor market participation, hours, and savings for married and single ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 41

Working Paper
Estimating the Tax and Credit-Event Risk Components of Credit Spreads
Goldstein, Robert S.; Benzoni, Luca (2015-11-18)
This paper argues that tax liabilities explain a large fraction of observed short-maturity investment-grade (IG) spreads, but credit-event premia do not. First, we extend Duffie and Lando (2001) by permitting management to issue both debt and equity. Rather than defaulting, managers of IG firms who receive bad private signals conceal this information and service existing debt via new debt issuance. Consistent with empirical observation, this strategy implies that IG firms have virtually zero credit-event risk (at least until they become ?fallen angels"). Second, we provide empirical evidence ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-17

Report
Pay with Promises or Pay as You Go? Lessons from the Death Spiral of Detroit
Ohanian, Lee E.; Holmes, Thomas J. (2014-07-14)
As part of compensation, municipal employees typically receive promises of future benefits. Motivated by the recent bankruptcy of Detroit, we develop a model of the equilibrium size of a city and use it to analyze how pay-with-promises schemes interact with city growth. The paper examines the circumstances under which a death spiral arises, where cutbacks of city services and increases in taxes lead to an exodus of residents, compounding financial distress. The model is put to work to analyze issues such as the welfare effects of having cities absorb pension risk and how unions affect the ...
Staff Report , Paper 501

Working Paper
Do increases in subsidized housing reduce the incidence of homelessness?: evidence from the low-income housing tax credit
Kawano, Laura; Jackson, Osborne (2015-05-01)
The provision of affordable housing for low-income families is often cited by policymakers and advocacy groups as a necessity for ending homelessness. The U.S. government spends a considerable amount on housing programs for the nation's poor, and the use of federal housing programs to mitigate homelessness has attracted increasing interest following the recent financial downturn and housing market crisis. While important for housing policy, however, the question of whether subsidized housing is effective for combating homelessness remains unresolved. In this paper, the authors examine the ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-11

Report
Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Nygaard, Vegard; Conesa, Juan Carlos; Raveendranathan, Gajendran (2019-05-08)
We develop and calibrate an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of exogenous trends in increasing college attainment, decreasing fertility, and increasing longevity between 2005 and 2100. While all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio, increasing college attainment has different macroeconomic implications because it increases labor productivity. Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the ...
Staff Report , Paper 583

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