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Working Paper
Tradability, Productivity, and Understanding International Economic Integration
Bergin, Paul R.; Glick, Reuven (2005-09-01)
This paper develops a two-country macro model with endogenous tradability to study features of international economic integration. Recent episodes of integration in Europe and North America suggest some surprising observations: while quantities of trade have increased significantly, especially along the extensive margin of goods previously not traded, price dispersion has not decreased and may even have increased. These observations challenge the usual understanding of integration in the literature. We propose a way of reconciling these price and quantity observations in a macroeconomic model ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2005-13

Report
The international transmission of monetary policy
Buch, Claudia M.; Bussiere, Matthieu; Goldberg, Linda S.; Hills, Robert (2018-03-01)
This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private ...
Staff Reports , Paper 845

Working Paper
Tariff passthrough at the border and at the store: evidence from US trade policy
Cavallo, Alberto; Gopinath, Gita; Neiman, Brent; Tang, Jenny (2019-11-01)
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy ? particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China ? on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to the total prices paid by importers, suggesting that the tariffs? incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-12

Report
The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms
Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J.; Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon (2015-11-23)
In what order should a developing country adopt policy reforms? Do some policies complement each other? Do others substitute for each other? To address these questions, we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with entry and exit of firms that are monopolistic competitors. Distortions in the model include barriers to entry of firms, barriers to international trade, and barriers to contract enforcement. We find that a reform that reduces one of these distortions has different effects depending on the other distortions present. In particular, reforms to trade barriers and ...
Staff Report , Paper 521

Working Paper
Financial Development and Trade Liberalization
Szkup, Michal; Kohn, David; Leibovici, Fernando (2020-11)
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing international trade barriers on imports of physical capital and intermediate inputs. We document that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower response of real GDP, consumption, and investment following trade liberalization episodes that improve access to imported production inputs. To quantify the role of financial development, we set up a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to financial constraints and estimate it to match salient features from ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-038

Working Paper
Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility
Duncan, Roberto (2013-12-31)
In contrast to industrialized countries, emerging market economies are characterized by proor acyclical monetary policies and high output volatility. This paper argues that those facts can be related to a long-run feature of the economy - namely, its institutional quality (IQL). The paper presents evidence that supports the link between an index of IQL (law and order, government stability, investment profile, etc.), and (i) the cyclicality of monetary policy, and (ii) the volatilities of output and the nominal interest rate. In a DSGE model, foreign investors that choose a portfolio of direct ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 163

Report
Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why
Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S. (2006-09-01)
In this paper, we use cross-country and time-series evidence to argue that retail price sensitivity to exchange rates may have increased over the past decade. This finding applies to traded goods as well as to non-traded goods. We highlight three reasons for the change in pass-through into the retail prices of goods. First, pass-through may have declined at the level of import prices, but the evidence is mixed over types of goods and countries. Second, there has been a large expansion of imported input use across sectors, meaning that the costs of imported goods as well as home-tradable goods ...
Staff Reports , Paper 261

Working Paper
Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union
Kollmann, Robert (2020-08-25)
The closed economy macro literature has shown that a liquidity trap can result from the self-fulfilling expectation that future inflation and output will be low (Benhabib et al. (2001)). This paper investigates expectations-driven liquidity traps in a two-country New Keynesian model of a monetary union. In the model here, country-specific productivity shocks induce synchronized responses of domestic and foreign output, while country-specific aggregate demand shocks trigger asymmetric domestic and foreign responses. A rise in government purchases in an individual country lowers GDP in the rest ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 397

Working Paper
Borders and Big Macs
Landry, Anthony (2011)
I measure the extent of international market segmentation using local, national, and international Big Mac prices. I show that the bulk of time-series price volatility observed across the United States arises between neighboring locations. Using these data, I provide new estimates of border frictions for 14 countries. I find that borders generally introduce only small price wedges, far smaller than those observed across neighboring locations. When expressing these wedges in terms of distance equivalents, I find that border widths are small in relation to price variations observed across the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 95

Discussion Paper
Why Does the U.S. Always Run a Trade Deficit?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2025-05-20)
The obvious answer to the question of why the United States runs a trade deficit is that its export sales have not kept up with its demand for imports. A less obvious answer is that the imbalance reflects a macroeconomic phenomenon. Using national accounting, one can show deficits are also due to a persistent shortfall in domestic saving that requires funds from abroad to finance domestic investment spending. Reducing the trade imbalance therefore requires both more exports relative to imports and a narrowing of the gap between saving and investment spending.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250520

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