Search Results
Working Paper
Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility
Duncan, Roberto
(2013-12-31)
In contrast to industrialized countries, emerging market economies are characterized by proor acyclical monetary policies and high output volatility. This paper argues that those facts can be related to a long-run feature of the economy - namely, its institutional quality (IQL). The paper presents evidence that supports the link between an index of IQL (law and order, government stability, investment profile, etc.), and (i) the cyclicality of monetary policy, and (ii) the volatilities of output and the nominal interest rate. In a DSGE model, foreign investors that choose a portfolio of direct ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 163
Working Paper
The cyclicality of (bilateral) capital inflows and outflows
Davis, J. Scott
(2015-08-01)
Recent research has shown that gross capital inflows and outflows are positively correlated and highly procyclical. This poses a puzzle since most theory predicts that capital inflows and outflows should be negatively correlated, and while capital inflows should be procyclical, capital outflows should be countercyclical. This previous work has examined the behavior of aggregate capital inflows and outflows (capital flows between a country and the rest of the world). This paper shows that bilateral capital inflows and outflows (flows between a pair of countries) are also positively correlated ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 247
Journal Article
FOMC Communication Spillovers: Is There a "Call-Out" Effect?
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Gulati, Chaitri
(2023-02-09)
Foreign asset prices may react to FOMC communication that references specific countries, but the effects are minimal.
Economic Review
, Volume vol.108
, Issue no.1
, Pages 15
Working Paper
Leverage constraints and the international transmission of shocks
Devereux, Michael B.
(2010)
Recent macroeconomic experience has drawn attention to the importance of interdependence among countries through financial markets and institutions, independently of traditional trade linkages. This paper develops a model of the international transmission of shocks due to interdependent portfolio holdings among leverage-constrained financial institutions. In the absence of leverage constraints, international portfolio diversification has no implications for macroeconomic comovements. When leverage constraints bind, however, the presence of diversified portfolios in combination with these ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 45
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Divergence, Net Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses
Zlate, Andrei; Davis, J. Scott
(2017-10-01)
This paper measures the effect of monetary tightening in key advanced economies on net capital flows and exchange rates around the world. Measuring this effect is complicated by the fact that the domestic monetary policies of affected economies respond endogenously to the foreign tightening shock. Using a structural VAR framework with quarterly panel data we estimate the impulse responses of domestic policy variables and net capital flows to a foreign monetary tightening shock. We find that the endogenous responses of domestic monetary policy depends on each economy?s capital account openness ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 328
Report
Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates
Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S.
(2006-04-01)
Border prices of traded goods are highly sensitive to exchange rates; however, the consumer price index (CPI) and the retail prices of goods that make up the CPI are more stable. This paper decomposes the sources of this price stability for twenty-one OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, focusing on the important role of distribution margins and imported inputs in transmitting exchange rate fluctuations into consumption prices. We provide rich cross-country and cross-industry details on distribution margins and their sensitivity to exchange rates, imported ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 247
Report
Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve
Du, Wenxin; Hébert, Benjamin; Li, Wenhao
(2022-07-01)
We have documented a regime change in the U.S. Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We first derived bounds on Treasury yields that account for dealer balance sheet costs, which we call the net short and net long curves. We show that actual Treasury yields moved from the net short curve pre- GFC to the net long curve post-GFC, consistent with the shift in the dealers’ net position. We then use a stylized model to demonstrate that increased bond supply and tightening leverage constraints can explain this change in regime. This change, in turn, helps explain negative swap ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1023
Report
Financial Sanctions, SWIFT, and the Architecture of the International Payments System
Cipriani, Marco; Goldberg, Linda S.; La Spada, Gabriele
(2023-01-01)
Financial sanctions, alongside economic sanctions, are components of the toolkit used by governments as part of international diplomacy. The use of sanctions, especially financial, has increased over the last seventy years. Financial sanctions have been particularly important whenever the goals of the sanctioning countries were related to democracy and human rights. Financial sanctions restrict entities—countries, businesses, or even individuals—from purchasing or selling financial assets, or from accessing custodial or other financial services. They can be imposed on a sanctioned ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1047
Report
Drivers of Dollar Share in Foreign Exchange Reserves
Hannaoui, Oliver Zain; Goldberg, Linda S.
(2024-03-01)
The share of U.S. dollar assets in the official foreign exchange reserve portfolios of central banks, at times, is taken as an indicator of dollar status. We show that the observed decline in aggregate U.S. dollar shares is not from a systematic decline in preferences for dollar assets. Instead, it is explained by a small group of countries, both due to monetary policies executed vis-à-vis euros and due to a small group of large foreign exchange reserve balance countries. Regression analysis shows that relative interest rates of reserve currencies and nontraditional currencies can tilt ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1087
Report
Gender differences in the labor market effects of the dollar
Goldberg, Linda S.; Tracy, Joseph
(2001-04-01)
Although the dollar has been shown to influence the expected wages of workers, the analysis to date has focused on the male workforce. We show that exchange rate fluctuations also have important implications for women's wages. The dominant wage effects for women?like those for men?arise at times of job transition. Changes in the value of the dollar can cause the wage gap between women who change jobs and women who stay on in their jobs to expand or contract sharply, with the most pronounced effects occurring among the least educated women and women in highly competitive manufacturing ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 121
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