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Working Paper
Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes
Bhattarai, Saroj; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong; Yang, Choongryul (2022-05-20)
We study aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of a permanent reduction in the capital tax rate in a quantitative model with capital-skill complementarity and household heterogeneity. Such a tax reform leads to expansionary long-run aggregate output and investment effects, but those are coupled with increases in wage, consumption, and income inequality. The tax reform is not self-financing and its effects depend crucially on whether the government cuts lump-sum transfers or raises distortionary labor or consumption tax rates for financing. The former results in a larger aggregate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-027

Working Paper
Shocks, Frictions, and Policy Regimes: Understanding Inflation after the COVID-19 Pandemic
Doh, Taeyoung; Yang, Choongryul (2023-12-22)
We set- up a two-sector New Keynesian model with input-output linkages to study the persistently high inflation during the post-COVID-19 period. We include multiple shocks as well as several amplification channels of these shocks in a parsimonious model to quantify the relative importance of each factor. We calibrate the model to match the pre-COVID-19 data and alter parameters governing 1) the fiscal rule, 2) inflation feedback in the monetary policy rule, 3) elasticity of substitution among intermediary inputs in production, and 4) the size of a sectoral demand shift shock to explain the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-16

Report
How Did the MSLP Borrowers Fare Before and During COVID-19?
Wang, J. Christina; Ballance, Joshua; Qing, Melanie (2021-09-08)
This policy brief uses Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data to assess whether the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) borrowers were in worse financial health than their peers before COVID-19 hit the economy hard in March 2020 or suffered worse deterioration afterward. The findings can help us better understand why these firms sought to obtain MSLP loans. We find that MSLP borrowers tend to be larger than their peer firms (that is, firms in the same industry and state). Within the same size group, MSLP borrowers are on average younger than their peers. Borrowers tended to have a slightly higher ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia
Hills, Timothy S.; Nakata, Taisuke (2014-11-20)
The presence of the lagged shadow policy rate in the interest rate feedback rule reduces the government spending multiplier nontrivially when the policy rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). In the economy with policy inertia, increased inflation and output due to higher government spending during a recession speed up the return of the policy rate to the steady state after the recession ends. This in turn dampens the expansionary effects of the government spending during the recession via expectations. In our baseline calibration, the output multiplier at the ZLB is 2.5 when the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-107

Working Paper
Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing
dAlessandro, Antonello; Fella, Giulio; Melosi, Leonardo (2018-05-01)
Using a Bayesian SVAR analysis, we document that an increase in government purchases raises private consumption, the real wage and total factor productivity (TFP) while reducing inflation. Each of these facts is hard to reconcile with both neoclassical and New-Keynesian models. We extend a standard New-Keynesian model to allow for skill accumulation through past work experience, following Chang, Gomes and Schorfheide (2002). An increase in government spending increases hours and induces skill accumulation and higher measured TFP and real wages in subsequent periods. Future marginal costs fall ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-9

Working Paper
Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective
Katagiri, Mitsuru; Ueda, Kozo; Konishi, Hideki (2014-11-01)
Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 218

Working Paper
Saving for a rainy day: estimating the appropriate size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds
Zhao, Bo (2014-10-01)
Rainy day funds (RDFs) are potentially an important countercyclical tool for states to stabilize their budgets and the overall economy during economic downturns. However, U.S. states have often found themselves exhausting their RDFs and having to raise tax rates or reduce expenditures while still experiencing a downturn. Therefore, how much each state should save in its RDF has become an increasingly important policy question. To address this issue, this paper applies several new methodologies to develop target RDF levels for each U.S. state, based on the estimated short-term revenue ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-12

Working Paper
Fiscal Implications of Interest Rate Normalization in the United States
Bi, Huixin; Yang, Shu-Chun S.; Shen, Wenyi (2020-10-02)
This paper studies the fiscal implications of interest rate normalization from the zero lower bound (ZLB) in the United States. At the ZLB, the decline in tax revenues and the real bond price drives up government debt. During normalization, interest payments continue to rise higher than they would have had rates not reached the ZLB, potentially increasing government debt even as output and tax revenues recover. We find that against the yardstick of ability to pay, interest rate normalization is unlikely to pose an immediate threat to debt sustainability at the current net federal debt level ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-12

Working Paper
A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations and Currency Crises
Miller, David S. (2021-08-24)
Treating nominal government bonds like other bonds leads to a new theory of sudden inflations and currency crises. Holmstrom (2015) and Gorton (2017) describe bonds as having costly-to-investigate opaque backing that consumers believe is sufficient for repayment. Government bonds' nominal return is their face value, their real return is determined by the government's surplus. In normal times, consumers are confident of repayment but ignorant of the true surpluses that will fund that repayment. When consumers' belief in real repayment wavers, they investigate surpluses. If consumers learn ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-057

Report
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Ayres, Joao Luiz; Guillen, Diogo; Garcia, Marcio (2018-12-20)
Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period ...
Staff Report , Paper 575

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