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Working Paper
Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
Nechio, Fernanda; Jordà, Òscar (2023-04-01)
Following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation surged to levels last seen in the 1980s. Motivated by vast differences in pandemic support across countries, we investigate the subsequent response of inflation and its feedback to wages. We exploit the differences in pandemic support to identify the effect that these programs had on inflation and the passthrough to wages. Our empirical approach focuses on a novel dynamic difference-in-differences method based on local projections. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 5 percentage points in direct transfers (relative to trend) ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-17

Report
Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting
Kapetanios, George; Groen, Jan J. J. (2008)
This paper analyzes the properties of a number of data-rich methods that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting, in particular principal components (PC) and Bayesian regressions, as well as a lesser-known alternative, partial least squares (PLS) regression. In the latter method, linear, orthogonal combinations of a large number of predictor variables are constructed such that the covariance between a target variable and these common components is maximized. Existing studies have focused on modelling the target variable as a function of a finite set of unobserved common factors that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 327

Working Paper
The TIPS Liquidity Premium
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Riddell, Simon; Andreasen, Martin M. (2020-07-09)
We introduce an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields that accounts for liquidity risk in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The novel feature of our model is to identify liquidity risk from individual TIPS prices by accounting for the tendency that TIPS, like most fixed-income securities, go into buy-and-hold investors’ portfolios as time passes. We find a sizable and countercyclical TIPS liquidity premium, which helps our model to match TIPS prices. Accounting for liquidity risk also improves the model’s ability to forecast inflation and match ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-11

Working Paper
Dividend Momentum and Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Approach
Antolin-Diaz, Juan; Petrella, Ivan; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F. (2021-11-10)
A long tradition in macro finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop methods to draw from any posterior distribution of a VAR that encodes a priori skepticism about large amounts of return predictability while imposing the CS restrictions. In doing so, we show how a common empirical practice of omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-25

Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Neely, Christopher J. (2020-11-08)
This paper argues that one cannot precisely estimate the persistence of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effects, especially with short samples and few observations. To make this point, we illustrate that the most influential model on the topic exhibits structural instability, and sensitivity to specification and outliers that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted models that respect more plausible asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. Estimates of the dynamic effects of shocks should respect the limited predictability in asset ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-04

Working Paper
Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time
Kiley, Michael T. (2024-07-12)
Treasury yields have fallen since the 1980s. Standard decompositions of Treasury yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums suggest term premiums account for much of the decline. In an alternative real-time decomposition, term premiums have fluctuated in a stable range, while long-run expected short-term interest rates have fallen. For example, a real-time decomposition of the 10-yr. Treasury yield shows term premiums essentially equal in late 2013 and 2023, while the long-run value of expected short-term interest rates is estimated to have fallen in a manner similar to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-054

Working Paper
Inflation Globally
Nechio, Fernanda; Jordà, Òscar (2018-12-07)
The Phillips curve remains central to stabilization policy. Increasing financial linkages, international supply chains, and managed exchange rate policy have given core currencies an outsized influence on the domestic affairs of world economies. We exploit such influence as a source of exogenous variation to examine the effects of the recent financial crisis on the Phillips curve mechanism. Using a difference-in-differences approach, and comparing countries before and after the 2008 financial crisis sorted by whether they endured or escaped the crisis, we are able to assess the evolution of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-15

Working Paper
A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound
Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Mertens, Elmar (2016-04-04)
Modeling interest rates over samples that include the Great Recession requires taking stock of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We propose a flexible time? series approach which includes a ?shadow rate??a notional rate that is less than the ELB during the period in which the bound is binding?without imposing no?arbitrage assumptions.{{p}}The approach allows us to estimate the behavior of trend real rates as well as expected future interest rates in recent years.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-033

Working Paper
Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements
Gardner, Benjamin; Scotti, Chiara; Vega, Clara (2021-11-18)
While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel FOMC sentiment index using textual analysis techniques, and find that news has a bigger (smaller) effect on equity prices during bad (good) times as described by the FOMC sentiment index. Our analysis suggests that the FOMC sentiment index offers a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-074

Working Paper
Optimal Simple Targeting Rules for Small Open Economies
Dennis, Richard (2000-12-01)
This paper solves for optimal policy rules in a stylized small open economy model under a spectrum of targeting regimes. These policy reaction functions are presented as feedback rules highlighting the dominant state variables in each rule. Optimal simple rules – rules that exploit a reduced information set – are explored to assess how much is lost when information is excluded from the optimal state-contingent rule. For the model analyzed we find that some optimal simple rules can approximate reasonably well the optimal state-contingent rule, these simple rules contain the real exchange ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2000-20

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