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Working Paper
Political Connections, Allocation of Stimulus Spending, and the Jobs Multiplier
Choi, Joonkyu; Saffie, Felipe; Penciakova, Veronika (2021-01-29)
Using American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) data, we show that firms lever their political connections to win stimulus grants and public expenditure channeled through politically connected firms hinders job creation. We build a unique database that links campaign contributions and state legislative election outcomes to ARRA grant allocation. Using exogenous variation in political connections based on ex-post close elections held before ARRA, we causally show that politically connected firms are 64 percent more likely to secure a grant. Based on an instrumental variable approach, we ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-005

Working Paper
Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models
Montag, Hugh; Villar Vallenas, Daniel (2025-03-28)
Using the micro data underlying the U.S. CPI, we document several findings about firm price-setting behavior during and following the Covid-19 pandemic, a period with the highest levels of inflation seen in around forty years. 1) The frequency of price change increased substantially as inflation took off, and has declined markedly as inflation has receded. 2) The average size of price changes also increased as price increases became more common, while the absolute value changed little. 3) The dispersion of price changes did not fall, contrary to the prediction of state-dependent models. 4) A ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-024

Working Paper
The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures
Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil (2022-07-08)
The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-7

Working Paper
Asymmetric firm dynamics under rational inattention
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Tutino, Antonella (2014-10-01)
We study the link between business failures, markups and business cycle asymmetry in the U.S. economy with a model of optimal firm exit under rational inattention. We show that the model's predictions of lagged, counter-cyclical and positively skewed markups together with counter-cyclical exit rates are consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, our model uncovers a new mechanism that links information processing with the business cycle. It predicts counter-cyclical attention to economic conditions consistent with survey evidence.
Working Papers , Paper 1411

Discussion Paper
Mind the Gap: How Do Credit Market Experiences and Borrowing Patterns Differ for Minority-Owned Firms?
Robb, Alicia M.; de Zeeuw, Mels; Barkely, Brett (2018-09-01)
Given the relationship between a small business’s access to financing and its outcomes, and given the growing share of minorities in the U.S. population, it is important that creditworthy firms and entrepreneurs, irrespective of race or ethnicity, are able to secure adequate financial resources to achieve growth and success. This paper employs data from the Federal Reserve System’s 2016 Small Business Credit Survey to explore under what conditions credit market experiences differ for various racial and ethnic ownership groups of small employer firms.The authors find evidence for ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-03

Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty
Molligo, Patrick; Caldara, Dario; Prestipino, Andrea; Iacoviello, Matteo; Raffo, Andrea (2019-09)
We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that increases in TPU reduce investment and activity using both firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data. We interpret the empirical results through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. In the model as in the data, news and increased uncertainty about higher future ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1256

Responding to the Childcare Needs of Shift Workers: Examples from the Automotive Industry
Dziczek, Kristin (2024-04)
Building cars, trucks, SUVs, and automotive parts is not a nine-to-five job. Almost all automotive manufacturing plants run production on two or more shifts or crews per day, and it is not uncommon for auto workers to work second or third shifts, “swing” shifts (that rotate between day and night shifts), or to occasionally work overtime to meet production demands. If you’re an auto manufacturing worker and a parent, working these non-standard hours (defined as anything outside of regular Monday to Friday daytime hours) poses unique challenges in finding quality, available, and flexible ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Report
Nonlinear Firm Dynamics
Melcangi, Davide; Sarpietro, Silvia (2024-03-01)
This paper presents empirical evidence on the nature of idiosyncratic shocks to firms and discusses its role for firm behavior and aggregate fluctuations. We document that firm-level sales and productivity are hit by heavy-tailed shocks and follow a nonlinear stochastic process, thus departing from the canonical linear. We estimate a state-of-the-art model to flexibly capture the rich dynamics uncovered in the data and characterize the drivers of nonlinear persistence and non-Gaussian shocks. We show that these features are crucial to get empirically plausible volatility and persistence of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1088

Working Paper
Pay, Employment, and Dynamics of Young Firms
Zarutskie, Rebecca; Ma, Wenting; Babina, Tania; Moser, Christian; Ouimet, Paige P. (2019-08-05)
Why do young firms pay less? Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, we find lower earnings among workers at young firms. However, we argue that such measurement is likely subject to worker and firm selection. Exploiting the two-sided panel nature of the data to control for relevant dimensions of worker and firm heterogeneity, we uncover a positive and significant young-firm pay premium. Furthermore, we show that worker selection at firm birth is related to future firm dynamics, including survival and growth. We tie our empirical findings to a simple model of pay, employment, ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 21

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