Search Results
Working Paper
Minimum distance estimation of possibly non-invertible moving average models
Ng, Serena; Gospodinov, Nikolay
(2013)
This paper considers estimation of moving average (MA) models with non-Gaussian errors. Information in higher-order cumulants allows identification of the parameters without imposing invertibility. By allowing for an unbounded parameter space, the generalized method of moments estimator of the MA(1) model has classical (root-T and asymptotic normal) properties when the moving average root is inside, outside, and on the unit circle. For more general models where the dependence of the cumulants on the model parameters is analytically intractable, we consider simulation-based estimators with two ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2013-11
Working Paper
Good Policies or Good Luck? New Insights on Globalization and the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique
(2017-07-01)
The open-economy dimension is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly integrated world. I investigate the monetary policy transmission mechanism in a two-country workhorse New Keynesian model where policy is set according to Taylor (1993) rules. I find that a common monetary policy isolates the effects of trade openness on the cross-country dispersion, and that the establishment of a currency union as a means of deepening economic integration may lead to indeterminacy. I argue that the common (coordinated) monetary policy equilibrium is the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 321
Report
Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims
Rosenberg, Joshua V.
(2003)
In this paper, I derive and implement a nonparametric, arbitrage-free technique for multivariate contingent claim (MVCC) pricing. Using results from the method of copulas, I show that the multivariate risk-neutral density can be written as a product of marginal risk-neutral densities and a risk-neutral dependence function. I then develop a pricing technique using nonparametrically estimated marginal risk-neutral densities (based on options data) and a nonparametric dependence function (based on historical return data). By using nonparametric estimation, I avoid the pricing biases that result ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 162
Working Paper
Seasonal adjustment of state and metro ces jobs data
Phillips, Keith R.; Wang, Jianguo
(2015-09-01)
Hybrid time series data often require special care in estimating seasonal factors. Series such as the state and metro area Current Employment Statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are composed of two different source series that often have two different seasonal patterns. In this paper we address the process to test for differing seasonal patterns within the hybrid series. We also discuss how to apply differing seasonal factors to the separate parts of the hybrid series. Currently the BLS simply juxtaposes the two different sets of seasonal factors at the transition ...
Working Papers
, Paper 1505
Working Paper
Multivariate return decomposition: theory and implications
Gospodinov, Nikolay; Anatolyev, Stanislav
(2015-08-01)
In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative?absolute values and signs?components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional copula. The approach is detailed in the case of a bivariate decomposition. We outline the construction of the likelihood function and the computation of different conditional measures. The finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are assessed by simulation. An application to predicting ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2015-7
Report
The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG
Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W.; Amstad, Marlene
(2014-04-22)
Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the ?FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)? for CPI and PCE. Using a dynamic factor model approach, the UIG is derived from a broad data set that extends beyond price series to include a wide range of nominal, real, and financial variables. It also considers the specific and time-varying ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 672
Working Paper
Assessing Bayesian model comparison in small samples
Wynne, Mark A.; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique
(2014-08-01)
We investigate the Bayesian approach to model comparison within a two-country framework with nominal rigidities using the workhorse New Keynesian open-economy model of Martnez-Garca and Wynne (2010). We discuss the trade-offs that monetary policy characterized by a Taylor-type rule faces in an interconnected world, with perfectly flexible exchange rates. We then use posterior model probabilities to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of such a model when estimated against more parsimonious specifications that either abstract from monetary frictions or assume autarky by means of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 189
Working Paper
Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap
Afanasyeva, Elena
(2020-06-12)
Yes, they can. I propose a new method to detect credit booms and busts from multivariate systems -- monetary Bayesian vector autoregressions. When observed credit is systematically higher than credit forecasts justified by real economic activity variables, a positive credit gap emerges. The methodology is tested for 31 advanced and emerging market economies. The resulting credit gaps fit historical evidence well and detect turning points earlier, outperforming the credit-to-GDP gaps in signaling financial crises, especially at longer horizons. The results survive in real time and can shed ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-045
Working Paper
Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels
Smith, Ron P.; Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem
(2021-05-27)
This paper, using the Bewley (1979) transformation of the autoregressive distributed lag model, proposes a pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run coefficients for dynamic panels with heterogeneous short-run dynamics, in the same setting as the widely used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The Bewley transform enables us to obtain an analytical closed form expression for the PB, which is not available when using the maximum likelihood approach. This lets us establish asymptotic normality of PB as n,T→∞ jointly, allowing for applications with n and T large and of the same order of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 409
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