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Series:Working Paper Series  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 

Working Paper
Summer workshop on money, banking, payments and finance: an overview
The 2010 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments and Finance met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago this summer, for the second year. The following document summarizes and ties together the papers presented.
AUTHORS: Nosal, Ed; Wright, Randall
DATE: 2010

Working Paper
Just What the Nurse Practitioner Ordered: Independent Prescriptive Authority and Population Mental Health
We examine whether relaxing occupational licensing to allow nurse practitioners (NPs)?registered nurses with advanced degrees?to prescribe medication without physician oversight is associated with improved population mental health. Exploiting time-series variation in independent prescriptive authority for NPs from 1990?2014, we find that broadening prescriptive authority is associated with improvements in self-reported mental health and decreases in mental-health-related mortality, including suicides. These improvements are concentrated in areas underserved by psychiatrists and among populations traditionally underserved by mental health providers. Our results demonstrate that extending prescriptive authority to NPs can help mitigate physician shortages and extend care to disadvantaged populations.
AUTHORS: Alexander, Diane; Schnell, Molly
DATE: 2016-12-20

Working Paper
Comment on "Letting different views about business cycles compete"
This comment explains why the findings presented in Beaudry and Lucke (2009) are misleading.
AUTHORS: Fisher, Jonas D. M.
DATE: 2009

Working Paper
Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE models
DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain primal shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are "non-existent" and propose a method to select the primal shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these non-existing shocks in estimation produces a downward bias in the estimated internal persistence of the model. We show how these distortions can be reduced by using priors for standard deviations whose support includes zero. The method allows us to accurately select primal shocks and estimate model parameters with high precision. We revisit the empirical evidence on an industry standard medium-scale DSGE model and find that government and price markup shocks are innovations that do not generate statistically significant dynamics.
AUTHORS: Ferroni, Filippo; Grassi, Stefano; León-Ledesma, Miguel A.
DATE: 2017-08-01

Working Paper
Labor market transitions and self-employment
The self-employed are a heterogeneous group. Some are self-employed because they are good at it, while others are self-employed because they cannot find a better paying salaried job. Data from the CPS for prime age males show that workers are almost twice as likely to enter self-employment from unemployment as from paid employment. Furthermore, almost 22% of workers exit self-employment within the year with most returning to paid employment. This paper develops a framework for examining transitions between the labor market states of unemployment, paid employment, and self-employment. The self-employed fall into two groups: those who continue to seek paid employment in the wage and salary sector and those whose value from self-employment exceeds the expected value from continued search. The calibrated model is used to examine the effects of business startup costs on labor market transition rates. Doubling startup costs has very little impact on these rates.
AUTHORS: Rissman, Ellen R.
DATE: 2007

Working Paper
Regulating two-sided markets: an empirical investigation
We study the effect of government encouraged or mandated interchange fee ceilings on consumer and merchant adoption and usage of payment cards in an economy where card acceptance is far from complete. We believe that we are the first to use bank- level data to study the impact of interchange fee regulation. We find that consumer and merchant welfare improved because of increased consumer and merchant adoption leading to greater usage of payment cards. We also find that bank revenues increased when interchange fees were reduced although these results are critically dependent on merchant acceptance being far from complete at the beginning and during the implementation of interchange fee ceilings. In addition, there is most likely a threshold interchange fee below which social welfare decreases although our data currently does not allow us to quantify it.
AUTHORS: Carbo-Valverde, Santiago; Chakravorti, Sujit; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Francisco
DATE: 2009

Working Paper
The effect of disability insurance receipt on labor supply
This paper estimates the effect of the Disability Insurance program on labor supply. We find that 30% of denied applicants and 15% of allowed applicants work several years after a disability determination decision. The earnings elasticity with respect to the after tax wage is 0.8. However, the labor supply of those over age 55, college graduates, and those with mental illness is not sensitive to allowance of benefits.
AUTHORS: French, Eric; Song, Jae
DATE: 2009

Working Paper
Financial signal processing: a self calibrating model
Previous work on multifactor term structure models has proposed that the short rate process is a function of some unobserved diffusion process. We consider a model in which the short rate process is a function of a Markov chain which represents the 'state of the world'. This enables us to obtain explicit expressions for the prices of zero-coupon bonds and other securities. Discretizing our model allows the use of signal processing techniques from Hidden Markov Models. This means we can estimate not only the unobserved Markov chain but also the parameters of the model, so the model is self-calibrating. The estimation procedure is tested on a selection of U.S. Treasury bills and bonds.
AUTHORS: Elliott, Robert J.; Hunter, William C.; Jamieson, Barbara M.
DATE: 2000

Working Paper
Characterizations in a random record model with a non-identically distributed initial record
We consider a sequence of random length M of independent absolutely continuous observations Xi, 1 = i = M, where M is geometric, X1 has cdf G, and Xi, i = 2, have cdf F. Let N be the number of upper records and Rn, n = 1, be the nth record value. We show that N is free of F if and only if G(x) = G0(F (x)) for some cdf G0 and that if E (|X2|) is finite so is E |Rn|) for n = 2 whenever N = n or N = n. We prove that the distribution of N along with appropriately chosen subsequences of E(Rn) characterize F and G, and along with subsequences of E Rn - Rn-1) characterize F and G up to a common location shift. We discuss some applications to the identification of the wage offer distribution in job search models.
AUTHORS: Barlevy, Gadi; Nagaraja, H. N.
DATE: 2005

Working Paper
Bank procyclicality, credit crunches, and asymmetric monetary policy effects: a unifying model
Much concern has recently been expressed that both large, procyclical changes in bank assets and "credit crunches" caused by bank reluctance to expand loans during recessions contribute to economic instability. These effects are difficult to explain using the standard textbook model of deposit expansion in which deposits are constrained only by reserve requirements. However, these effects follow easily if the model is expanded to include a second, capital constraint.
AUTHORS: Bliss, Robert R.; Kaufman, George G.
DATE: 2002

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