Unemployment rates in tri-state metropolitan areas
The national unemployment rate is a closely watched monthly economic statistic. It provides a measure of the health of the labor market and is one of many statistical gauges of economic conditions. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the national unemployment rate as well as unemployment rates for the 50 states and many sub-state areas. This Research Rap Special Report looks at unemployment rates at one of these sub-state levels ? the metropolitan area ? in the three states in the Third Federal Reserve District: Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Metropolitan area unemployment rates provide information not only about current local labor market conditions but also about the long-term features of the economies of individual metropolitan areas.
AUTHORS: Schiller, Timothy G.
Real GDP in annual revisions to the U.S. National accounts: 1966-2011
On July 29, 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a flexible annual revision to the U.S. national income and product accounts. Real GDP growth was subject to large downward revisions. I use the Philadelphia Fed's real-time data set to compare the size of the recent revision with that of past annual revisions since 1966.
AUTHORS: Stark, Tom
First quarters in the national income and product accounts
Prompted by their expectations of an initial estimate of a marked slowdown in U.S. real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2015, commentators and analysts have drawn attention to an apparent ?first-quarter effect? in the U.S. national income and product accounts
AUTHORS: Stark, Tom
Real-time performance of GDPplus and alternative model-based measures of GDP: 2005—2014
Like most macroeconomic variables, real gross domestic product is subject to measurement error. Because the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis lacks complete information at the time it publishes its initial GDP estimates, revisions are often substantial. Analysts concerned about the accuracy of these early estimates for expenditure GDP could focus instead on gross domestic income, the BEA?s measure of U.S. output on the income side of the national accounts. Conceptually, GDP on the expenditure side should equal GDP on the income side, and there should be no choice to make between the two series. As a practical matter, however, the two measures can differ by a significant amount because each measure is constructed using ?largely independent? source data, which themselves are ?less than perfect? [BEA (2014)].
AUTHORS: Stark, Tom
Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!
When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine months old before their onset was declared.
AUTHORS: Scavette, Adam
Was job quality “job one” in the tri-state region’s economic recovery?
Employment growth has been the most hesitant part of this recovery. Labor markets have been weaker for longer in this recovery than in the other postwar recoveries, even the so-called ?jobless recovery? of 1991-92, at least by some measures.
AUTHORS: Mester, Loretta J.; Olney, William
Budget gaps and balanced-budget proposals in Third District states
AUTHORS: Flora, Paul R.
An experimental index for the Business Outlook Survey: some preliminary findings
The Philadelphia Fed?s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) receives considerable attention because it is viewed as both a regional and a national indicator of the anufacturing sector. The value of the survey as an important indicators is due, no doubt, to its unusual longevity (conducted monthly since 1968) and to the fact that manufacturing remains quite sensitive to shifts in overall economic activity. Several studies have shown that the survey?s indexes are useful in quantitatively estimating how the manufacturing sector is doing along a variety of dimension
AUTHORS: Trebing, Michael E.
Has job quality been \\"job one\\" in the economic recovery?
The Great Recession of 2007-09 has been followed by a Not-So-Great Recovery. The U.S. economy lost more than 8.7 million jobs, representing 6.3 percent of total U.S. payroll employment, on net, during the Great Recession. But while the recovery from this very deep recession began in June 2009, the first net increase in payrolls did not occur until March 2010, eight months into the recovery.
AUTHORS: Sen, Elif; Mester, Loretta J.
Wealth inequality among the Forbes 400 and U.S. households overall
While widening income inequality in the United States has garnered much public and academic attention in recent years, wealth inequality reveals an even starker picture. For instance, in 2010, the top 1 percent of income earners received 19.8 percent of total household income. In the same year, the wealthiest 1 percent held 35.4 percent of total household wealth (Kaplan 2013). Moreover, wealth inequality has increased in recent decades, with most gains concentrated among the richest 20 percent of households (Wolff 2013).
AUTHORS: Nagayama, Fuyuo