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Working Paper
Did bank borrowers benefit from the TARP program : the effects of TARP on loan contract terms
Makaew, Tanakorn; Berger, Allen N.; Roman, Raluca (2015-09-01)
We study the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) on loan contract terms to businesses borrowing from recipient banks. Using a difference-in-difference analysis, we find that TARP led to more favorable terms to these borrowers in all five contract terms studied ? loan amounts, spreads, maturities, collateral, and covenants. This suggests recipient banks' borrowers benefited from TARP. These findings are statistically and economically significant, and are robust to dealing with potential endogeneity issues and other checks. {{p}} The contract term improvements are concentrated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-11

Working Paper
What we don’t know doesn’t hurt us: rational inattention and the permanent income hypothesis in general equilibrium
Young, Eric R.; Wang, Gaowang; Luo, Yulei; Nie, Jun (2014-11-01)
This paper derives the general equilibrium effects of rational inattention (or RI; Sims 2003,2010) in a model of incomplete income insurance (Huggett 1993, Wang 2003). We show that,under the assumption of CARA utility with Gaussian shocks, the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) arises in steady state equilibrium due to a balancing of precautionary savings and impatience. We then explore how RI affects the equilibrium joint dynamics of consumption, income and wealth, and find that elastic attention can make the model fit the data better. We finally show that the welfare costs of incomplete ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-14

Working Paper
Deposit insurance, deposit deregulation and bank risk-taking
Keeton, William R. (1987)
Research Working Paper , Paper 87-03

Working Paper
Measuring R & D spillovers : on the importance of geographic and technological proximity
Orlando, Michael J. (2002)
Evidence is presented which suggest that an important measure of the apparent geographic localization of R&D spillovers may be an artifact of industrial agglomeration. A production function framework is used to examine the role of geographic and technological proximity for inter-firm spillovers from R&D. The largest spillovers are found to flow between firms in the same industry. However, spillovers within narrowly defined technological groups do not appear to be attenuated by distance. Geographic proximity does appear to attenuate spillovers that cross narrowly defined technological ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 02-06

Working Paper
Market timing strategies that worked
Shen, Pu (2002)
In this paper, we present a few simple market-timing strategies that appear to outperform the "buy-and-hold" strategy, with real-time data from 1970 to 2000. Our focus is on spreads between the E/P ratio of the S&P 500 index and interest rates. Extremely low spreads, as compared to their historical ranges, appear to predict higher frequencies of subsequent market downturns in monthly data. We construct "horse races" between switching strategies based on extremely low spreads and the market index. Switching strategies call for investing in the stock market index unless spreads are lower ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 02-01

Working Paper
Should We Be Puzzled by Forward Guidance?
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2020-04-30)
Although a growing literature argues output is too sensitive to future interest rates in standard macroeconomic models, little empirical evidence has been put forth to evaluate this claim. In this paper, we use a range of vector autoregression models to answer the central question of how much output responds to changes in interest rate expectations following a monetary policy shock. Despite distinct identification strategies and sample periods, we find surprising agreement regarding this elasticity across empirical models. We then show that in a standard model of nominal rigidity estimated ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-01

Working Paper
Long run risks in the term structure of interest rates: estimation
Doh, Taeyoung (2008)
This paper specifies and estimates a long run risks model with inflation by using the nominal term structure data in the United States from 1953 to 2006. The negative correlation between expected inflation and expected consumption growth in conjunction with the Epstein-Zin (1989) recursive preferences generates an upward sloping yield curve and fits the yield curve data better than the alternative specifications. However, the variations of the forward looking components of consumption growth and inflation in the estimated model are much smaller than implied by calibrated parameter values in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 08-11

Working Paper
Monetary policy regime shifts and inflation persistence
Doh, Taeyoung; Davig, Troy A. (2008)
This paper reports the results of estimating a Markov-Switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model using Bayesian methods. The broadest and best fitting MSNK model is a four-regime model allowing independent changes in the regimes governing monetary policy and the volatility of the shocks. We use the estimates to investigate the mechanisms that lead to a decline in the persistence of inflation. We show that the population moment describing the serial correlation of inflation is a weighted average of the autocorrelation parameters of the exogenous shocks. Changes in the monetary or shock volatility ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 08-16

Working Paper
Effects of State Taxation on Investment: Evidence from the Oil Industry
Brown, Jason; Maniloff, Peter; Manning, Dale T. (2018-09-05)
We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that firms do not in general respond equally to changes in prices and taxes in the setting of oil well drilling in the United States. Our key theoretical contribution is that in a multi-state model, a change in output price changes both the benefit and opportunity cost of drilling, whereas a change in a state tax rate only changes the benefit of drilling in that state. Thus, a firm responds more to a change in tax than a change in price. Our econometric results support this theoretical prediction. We find that a one dollar per barrel increase in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-7

Working Paper
The dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee (2016-01-15)
We examine the macroeconomic effcts of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound. Empirically, we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around monetary policy announcements. We then embed these policy shocks in a vector autoregression to trace out their macroeconomic implications. Forward guidance shocks that lower expected future policy rates lead to moderate increases in economic activity and inflation. After examining forward guidance shocks in the data, we show that a standard model of nominal price rigidity can reproduce our empirical ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-2

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