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Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve
Dilts Stedman, Karlye (2019-10-31)
This paper examines international spillovers from unconventional monetary policy between the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Japan, and assesses the influence of asynchronous policy normalization on the slope of the yield curve. Using high frequency futures data to identify monetary policy surprises and controlling for contemporaneous news, I find that spillovers increase during periods of unconventional monetary policy and strengthen during asynchronous policy normalization. Local projections suggest persistent spillovers from the Federal Reserve, whereas other ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-9

Working Paper
New estimates of the U.S. economy's potential growth rate
Kahn, George A. (1995)
Using an Okun's law framework, this paper estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed-and chain-weighted indexes of GDP. Estimated potential growth rates are then decomposed into growth in labor productivity and growth in labor input using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. Estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s are compared with estimates from earlier periods using both fixed and chain weights. ; The first section of the paper compares the behavior of output, productivity, and employment during the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 95-08

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic
Nie, Jun; Xie, Zoe (2020-08-06)
The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increased the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about substantial effects on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of the CARES Act UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment but also reduce infection and save lives. Economic shutdown policies further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, the CARES ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-07

Working Paper
Monetary policy without intermediate targets: Federal Reserve policy since 1983
Sellon, Gordon H.; Hakkio, Craig S. (1994)
Research Working Paper , Paper 94-14

Working Paper
Generalizing the Taylor principle
Leeper, Eric M.; Davig, Troy A. (2005)
Recurring change in a monetary policy function that maps endogenous variables into policy choices alters both the nature and the efficacy of the Taylor principle---the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. A monetary policy process is a set of policy rules and a probability distribution over the rules. We derive restrictions on that process that satisfy a long-run Taylor principle and deliver unique equilibria in two standard models. A process can satisfy the Taylor ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 05-13

Working Paper
Optimal pricing of intra-day liquidity
Martin, Antoine (2002)
It is a puzzling fact that many central banks choose to lend intra-day funds at an interest rate of zero (or very close to zero), while the interest rate on overnight funds is much higher. I build a general equilibrium model where intra-day liquidity is needed because it is costly to make precise the time at which payments are received. If liquidity shocks are uninsurable, a necessary and sufficient condition for an equilibrium to be efficient is that the nominal intra-day interest rate be zero. This is true despite the fact that the overnight nominal rate is strictly positive (the reverse of ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 02-02

Working Paper
The aggregate implications of individual labor supply heterogeneity
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2011)
This paper examines the Frisch elasticity at the extensive margin of labor supply in an economy consistent with the observed dispersion in average employment rates across individuals. An incomplete markets economy with indivisible labor is presented where agents differ in their disutility of labor and market skills. The model's key parameters are estimated using indirect inference with panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of the Youth-NLSY. The estimated model implies an elasticity of aggregate employment of 0.71. A simple decomposition reveals that labor disutility differences, ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 11-09

Working Paper
Pawnbroking in America: the economics of forgotten credit market
Caskey, John P. (1989)
Research Working Paper , Paper 89-17

Working Paper
The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding
Wojan, Timothy R.; Lambert, Dayton; Brown, Jason (2018-05-01)
This article suggests two methods for deriving a statistical verdict from a null finding,allowing economists to more confidently conclude when ?not significant" can in fact be interpreted as ?no substantive effect." The proposed methodology can be extended to a variety of empirical contexts where size and power matter. The example used to demonstrate the method is the Economic Research Service's 2004 Report to Congress that was charged with statistically identifying any unintended negative employment consequences of the Conservation Reserve Program (the Program). The report failed to ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-4

Working Paper
Lender exposure and effort in the syndicated loan market
Mora, Nada (2010)
This paper tests for agency problems between the lead arranger and syndicate participants in the syndicated loan market. One problem comes from adverse selection, whereby the lead arranger has a private informational advantage over participants. A second problem comes from moral hazard, whereby the lead arranger puts less effort in monitoring when it retains a smaller loan portion. Applying an instrumental variables strategy, I find that borrowers' performance is influenced by the lead's share. Dynamic tests extract active contributions made by the lead, supporting a monitoring ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 10-12

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