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Working Paper
How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises
Lusompa, Amaze; An, Phillip; Dilts Stedman, Karlye (2025-05-16)
This paper investigates the utility of daily data in measuring high-frequency monetary policy surprises, comparing various announcement-day asset price changes with their intradaily (30-minute) counterparts. We find that both frequencies are similarly distributed and often highly correlated, particularly for longer-horizon measures. Testing daily surprises for systematic contamination from non-monetary policy news, we find no evidence to suggest that contemporaneous news releases bias their measurement. Empirical applications, including high-frequency passthrough to Treasury yields and proxy ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-03

Working Paper
The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Belief Distortions: Model-Free Evidence
Adams, Jonathan; Taipliadis, Symeon (2025-06-23)
Data suggest that monetary policy should ease to offset inflation over-pessimism among households.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-04

Working Paper
Measuring the Spectrum of Occupational Emissions
Çakır Melek, Nida; Cohen, Elior (2025-07-01)
Understanding how occupations differ in their exposure to emissions-intensive activities is fundamental for analyzing labor market risks amid changes in the energy mix. We develop new, data-driven measures of occupational emissions intensity that capture heterogeneity across and within industries. Our baseline Occupational Emissions Score (OES), along with wage- and concentration-adjusted variations (WOES and COES), highlights substantial differences in emissions exposure across the U.S. workforce. Applying these measures, we document several new facts: emissions are highly concentrated in a ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-05

Working Paper
What Are Empirical Monetary Policy Shocks? Estimating the Term Structure of Policy News
Adams, Jonathan; Barrett, Philip (2025-07-16)
Empirical monetary policy shocks (EMPS) mix information about both current andfuture policy. Policy news shocks at different horizons have different macroeconomic effects, so quantifying this mix is essential to use EMPS to evaluate theory. To disentanglethese shocks, we develop an IV method to estimate the term structure of monetary policy news, which captures how an EMPS affects policy residuals at each future horizon.Applying our method to popular monetary policy shocks, we learn that they do not represent textbook surprises Instead, they mix information about policy at many horizons,and ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-06

Working Paper
Firm Search in the Labor Market: Evidence from Help-Wanted Advertisements
Traum, Nora; Woodward, Greg; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Bi, Huixin (2026-05-15)
We construct new monthly city-level and national measures of firm search for workers from 1900 to 1938, drawing on approximately 5 million scanned help-wanted advertisements from five U.S. newspapers, with breakdowns by gender. We document four main findings: (1) firm search effort is procyclical, declining sharply at the onset of recessions; (2) posting costs affect advertising behavior, but the effect is modest, with an elasticity of −0.09; (3) the U.S. Beveridge curve has been stable for the past 125 years, with matching elasticities of 0.57 pre-WWII and 0.55 post-WWII; and (4) ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-07

Working Paper
Worker and Firm Search in the Labor Market: Evidence from Classified Advertisements
Traum, Nora; Woodward, Greg; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Bi, Huixin (2025-07-16)
We present new monthly city-level and national measures of worker and firm search from 1900 to 1938, derived from scanned images of U.S. newspapers. To our knowledge, we are the first to systematically use the “situations-wanted” advertisements placed by job seekers. We document fresh insights into early 20th-century labor market dynamics: (1) worker and firm search efforts are procyclical; (2) posting costs affectadvertising behavior and labor search intensity; (3) the Beveridge curve is stable over the last 125 years, with similar shifts following the 1918 flu and Covid-19 pandemic; and ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-07

Working Paper
Revisiting Adam Smith and the Division of Labor: New Evidence from U.S. Occupational Data, 1860–1940
Huang, Jingyi; Cohen, Elior; Carollo, Nicholas A. (2025-10-31)
Using novel occupational data from the United States between 1860 and 1940, we evaluate Adam Smith’s core propositions regarding the division of labor, market size, innovation, and productivity. We document significant growth in occupational diversity during this period using new measures of labor specialization that we construct from workers’ self-reported job titles in the decennial census. Consistent with Smith’s hypotheses, we find strong empirical evidence that labor specialization increases with the extent of the market, is facilitated by technological innovation, and is ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-08

Working Paper
Revisiting Adam Smith and the Division of Labor: New Evidence from U.S. Occupational Data, 1860–1940
Huang, Jingyi; Cohen, Elior; Carollo, Nicholas A. (2025-09-03)
Using novel occupational data from the United States between 1860 and 1940, we evaluate Adam Smith’s core propositions regarding the division of labor, market size, innovation, and productivity. We document significant growth in occupational diversity during this period using new measures of labor specialization that we construct from workers’ self-reported job titles in the decennial census. Consistent with Smith’s hypotheses, we find strong empirical evidence that labor specialization increases with the extent of the market, is facilitated by technological innovation, and is ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-08

Working Paper
Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter
Bundick, Brent; Cairó, Isabel; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2025-09-04)
Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firms have perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks, then the implied longer-run averages and distributions for unemployment and inflation can differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derive this result analytically under either an asymmetric monetary policy rule or a nonlinear Phillips ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-09

Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy Spillovers and the (In)convenience of Treasuries
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Hanson, Andrew (2025-09-04)
Using high frequency data, we find that spillovers to the U.S. yield curve from the European Central Bank increased following the Global Financial Crisis, and strengthened when the U.S. normalized policy out of sync with other advanced economies. These spillovers were amplified by a contemporaneous waning in the ”convenience” of Treasuries. This provides evidence for a portfolio balance channel of transmission that is time-varying based on thenon-pecuniary characteristics of Treasuries. We rationalize these facts using a two-country model of preferred habitat investors, where time-varying ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-10

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