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Working Paper
Discretion, wage indexation, and inflation
VanHoose, David D.; Waller, Christopher J. (1989)
Research Working Paper , Paper 89-03

Working Paper
Who offers tax-based business development incentives?
Hines, James R.; Felix, Alison (2011)
Many American communities seek to attract or retain businesses with tax abatements, tax credits, or tax increment financing of infrastructure projects (TIFs). The evidence for 1999 indicates that communities are most likely to offer one or more of these business development incentives if their residents have low incomes, if they are located close to state borders, and if their states have troubled political cultures. Ten percent greater median household income is associated with a 3.2 percent lower probability of offering incentives; ten percent greater distance from a state border is ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 11-05

Working Paper
Magazine prices revisited
Willis, Jonathan L. (2001)
This paper examines price adjustment behavior in the magazine industry. In a frequently cited study, Cecchetti (1986) constructs a reduced-form (S,s) model for firms. Cecchetti assumes that a firm's pricing rules are fixed for non-overlapping three-year intervals and estimates the model using a conditional logit specification from Chamberlain (1980). The estimates are inconsistent, however, due to the state-dependent specification of the model. I illustrate the econometric problems in Cecchetti's results through a Monte Carlo exercise and then suggest a method for producing consistent ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 01-15

Working Paper
Phillips curves, monetary policy, and a labor market transmission mechanism
Reed, Robert R.; Schreft, Stacey L. (2007)
This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary model with performance incentives to study the inflation-unemployment relationship. A long-run downward-sloping Phillips curve can exist with perfectly anticipated inflation because workers? incentive to exert effort depend on financial market returns. Consequently, higher inflation rates can reduce wages and stimulate employment. An upward-sloping or vertical Phillips Curve can arise instead, depending on agents? risk aversion and the possibility of capital formation. Welfare might be higher away from the Friedman rule and with a central ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 07-12

Working Paper
Death of Coal and Breath of Life: The Effect of Power Plant Closure on Local Air Quality
Tousey, Colton; Brown, Jason (2020-10-15)
The number of U.S. coal-fired power plants declined by nearly 250 between 2001 and 2018. Given that burning coal generates large amounts of particulate matter, which is known to have adverse health effects, the closure of a coal-fired power plant should improve local air quality. Using spatial panel data from air quality monitor stations and coal-fired power plants, we estimate the relationship between plant closure and local air quality. We find that on average, the levels of particulate matter within 25 and 50 mile buffers around air quality monitors declined between 7 and 14 percent with ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-15

Working Paper
Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Marginal Effects and Shapley Values
Palmer, Nathan M.; Modig, Zach; Cook, Thomas R. (2024-08-06)
Machine learning and artificial intelligence are often described as “black boxes.” Traditional linear regression is interpreted through its marginal relationships as captured by regression coefficients. We show that the same marginal relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by calculating the slope of the partial dependence functions, which we call the partial marginal effect (PME). We prove that the PME of OLS is analytically equivalent to the OLS regression coefficient. Boot- strapping provides standard errors and confidence intervals around the point ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-12

Working Paper
International transmission of anticipated inflation under alternative exchange-rate regimes
Rioja, Felix K.; Holman, Jill A. (1999)
This paper studies the international transmission of anticipated inflation. A two-country, two-good, two-currency, cash-in-advance model is used to examine analytically and numerically the consequences of changes in a country's inflation rate. Domestic monetary policy influences real activity at home through an inflation-tax channel. These real effects are transmitted to the foreign country via fluctuations in the real exchange rate. Under a flexible nominal exchange rate, inflation is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. Under a fixed nominal exchange rate, each country suffers a welfare loss when ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 99-04

Working Paper
Do bank bailouts reduce or increase systemic risk? the effects of TARP on financial system stability
Sedunov, John; Berger, Allen N.; Roman, Raluca (2016-10-04)
Theory suggests that bank bailouts may either reduce or increase systemic risk. This paper is the first to address this issue empirically, analyzing the U.S. Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Difference-in-difference analysis suggests that TARP significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for larger and safer banks located in better local economies. This occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel. {{p}} Results are robust to additional tests, including accounting for potential endogeneity and selection bias. Findings yield policy conclusions about the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-8

Working Paper
A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation
Clark, Todd E.; Doh, Taeyoung (2011)
The concept of trend inflation is important in making accurate inflation forecasts. However, there is little consensus on how the trend in inflation should be modeled. While some studies suggest a survey-based measure of long-run inflation expectations as a good empirical proxy for trend inflation, others have argued for a statistical exercise of decomposing inflation data into trend and cycle components. In this paper, we assess alternative models of trend inflation based on the accuracy of medium-term inflation forecasts. To incorporate recent evidence on the time-varying macroeconomic ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 11-16

Working Paper
Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Heathcote, Jonathan; Krueger, Dirk; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Glover, Andrew (2021-12-17)
In this paper we ask how to best allocate a given time-varying supply of vaccines during the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic across individuals of different ages. Building on the heterogeneous household model of optimal economic mitigation and redistribution developed by Glover et al. (2021), we contrast the actual vaccine deployment path that prioritized older individuals with one that first vaccinates younger workers. Vaccinating older adults first saves more lives but slows the economic recovery relative to inoculating younger adults first. Vaccines carry large welfare benefits in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-15

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