Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Glover, Andrew; Heathcote, Jonathan; Krueger, Dirk; Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor

doi:10.18651/RWP2021-15

Working Paper

Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: In this paper we ask how to best allocate a given time-varying supply of vaccines during the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic across individuals of different ages. Building on the heterogeneous household model of optimal economic mitigation and redistribution developed by Glover et al. (2021), we contrast the actual vaccine deployment path that prioritized older individuals with one that first vaccinates younger workers. Vaccinating older adults first saves more lives but slows the economic recovery relative to inoculating younger adults first. Vaccines carry large welfare benefits in both scenarios (relative to a world without vaccines), but the older-first policy is optimal under a utilitarian social welfare function.

Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccination paths;

JEL Classification: E21; E63;

https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2021-15