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Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11 , Pages 20

Journal Article
How Many Rate Hikes Does Quantitative Tightening Equal?
Wei, Bin (2022-07-14)
In this article, I examine the question of how to quantify the equivalence between interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening (QT). Using a simple "preferred habit" model I estimate that a $2.2 trillion passive roll-off of nominal Treasury securities from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times, but 74 basis points during turbulent periods.
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 11

Discussion Paper
Wage Pressures in the Labor Market: What Do They Say?
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2021-06-03)
Wage pressures among the newly employed in low-wage service occupations appear to be the result of normal economic forces, likely reflecting demand surges for—and a reluctant supply of—workers in occupations particularly hard hit by pandemic-induced economic shutdowns.
Policy Hub , Paper 2021-05

Discussion Paper
Why Cash Transfers Are Good Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Braun, R. Anton; Ikeda, Daisuke (2020-05-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an exceptionally large and negative impact on economic activity around the world. We show that cash transfers can be a useful policy tool during a pandemic. Cash transfers mitigate consumption inequality induced by the pandemic and provide incentives to individuals who are most negatively affected by lockdown policies to adhere to them.
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-4

Journal Article
So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk
Wall, Larry D. (2021-11-08)
The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 13

Discussion Paper
Central Banks, Global Shocks, and Local Crises: Lessons from the Atlanta Fed's Response to the 1920–21 Recession
Roberds, William; White, Eugene (2020-12-18)
During late 1920, the president (then called "governor") and board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta were confronted with an unexpected, devastating collapse in the price of a commodity whose global production was concentrated in their district—cotton. Their judgment was that the fall in cotton prices was temporary and that its effects could be lessened with generous credit policies that did not conflict with the Federal Reserve Act. Other officials within the Federal Reserve System did not agree with this judgment, however, leading to a contentious policy debate and an ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-15

Journal Article
Payment Card Adoption and Payment Choice
Greene, Claire; Shy, Oz (2022-07-11)
Using data from the 2021 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, this article investigates two questions: how do consumers without credit or debit cards make payments, and do consumers without these payment cards differ from other consumers?
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 10

Discussion Paper
Wage Growth over Unemployment Spells
Silos, Pedro; Fang, Lei (2020-07-13)
This article looks at the wage growth associated with a spell of unemployment during the past three recessions. Our main findings are threefold. First, half of all unemployed workers experience a lower hourly wage once they regain employment. Second, afteran unemployment spell, older workers and those without a college degree experience lower wage growth. Third, workers who regain employment in a different industry than they were in previously tend to experience a substantial wage decline. The analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic not only led to unprecedented job losses, but it could ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-9

Journal Article
Who Benefited Most from the CARES Act Unemployment Insurance Provisions?
Fang, Lei; Nie, Jun; Xie, Zoe (2022-04-07)
The regular unemployment insurance (UI) program in the United States requires workers to have a minimum amount of earnings as well as a sufficient work history before unemployment. Low-wage workers are more likely to have a short work history before unemployment because they are more likely to be separated from their jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) under the CARES Act temporarily eliminated the requirements for minimum past earnings and length of employment, thus making many low-wage workers who were ineligible for UI under the regular program temporarily eligible. The extra ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 4 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Transformative Potential and Associated Risks
Swem, Nathan; Gerszten, Jacob; Carapella, Francesca; Dumas, Edward (2022-10-18)
Financial services in the crypto finance world are provided by a combination of centralized finance (CeFi) organizations and decentralized finance (DeFi). CeFi's are roughly similar to traditional financial intermediaries, but DeFi seeks to provide services using smart contracts (computer code) rather than an intermediary. DeFi's unusual structure creates some interesting potential but also raises new risks in addition to those already inherent in blockchains and crypto finance. This paper reviews some of the opportunities and risks.
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 14

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