Search Results
Discussion Paper
Fiscal and generational imbalances: new budget measures for new budget priorities
This paper describes the deficiencies of the measures used to calculate the federal budget, make revenue and spending projections, and assess the sustainability of current fiscal policies. The nature of the deficiencies hides the tremendous impact that Social Security and Medicare commitments will have on the budget in the future, given the way the programs are structured currently and the momentous demographic shift underway as the baby boom generation approaches retirement age. This paper proposes two new simple measures that will enable government officials and the public to calculate more ...
Discussion Paper
Estimating GSP and labor productivity by state
In gauging the health of state economies, arguably the two most important series to track are employment and output. While employment by state is available about three weeks after the end of a month, data on output, as measured by Gross State Product (GSP), are only available annually and with a significant lag. This Policy Discussion Paper details how more current estimates of GSP can be generated using U.S. Gross Domestic Product and personal income along with individual states personal income. A straightforward share approach yields reasonable GSP estimates, but a more sophisticated ...
Discussion Paper
Walking on a fence: Brazils public-sector debt
Brazil is walking on a fence between sustainable and unsustainable public-debt dynamics. How it treads could affect not only its own economic prosperity but that of its neighbors, emerging markets in general, and U.S. financial institutions in particular. Relatively small improvements in Brazilian economic conditions and a continuation of that countrys recent fiscal improvements could push Brazil in the right direction, particularly if the dollar continues to depreciate.
Discussion Paper
The 2007 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking and Payments: an overview
The 2007 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments and Finance met at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland this summer, as we have over the past several years. The following document summarizes and ties together the contributions presented at the workshop this year.
Discussion Paper
Systemic banking crises
Systemic banking crises can have devastating effects on the economies of developing or industrialized countries. This Policy Discussion Paper reviews the factors that weaken banking systems and make them more susceptible to crises.
Discussion Paper
Inflation and welfare: a search approach
This paper extends recent findings in the search-theoretic literature on monetary exchange regarding the welfare costs of inflation. We present first estimates of the welfare cost of inflation using the "welfare triangle" methodology of Bailey (1958) and Lucas (2000). We then derive a money demand function from the search-theoretic model of Lagos and Wright (2005) and we estimate it from U.S. data over the period 1900-2000. We show that the welfare cost of inflation predicted by the model accords with the welfare-triangle measure when pricing mechanisms are such that buyers appropriate ...
Discussion Paper
On the resolution of financial crises: the Swedish experience
Sweden was one of the Scandinavian countries experiencing a severe financial crisis In the late 1980s and early 1990s. I review the policy choices and external factors that pushed the countrys financial system over the edge and then examine the steps the government took to make its resolution of the crisis one of the most successful in the past 30 years.
Discussion Paper
Some lessons on the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management
This Policy Discussion Paper reviews the restructuring and recapitalization of Long-Term Capital Management, looking at possible alternatives and paying particular attention to the Federal Reserves role.
Discussion Paper
Recent developments in monetary economics: a summary of the 2004 Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments
We provide a summary and an overview of the papers presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelands 2004 Workshop on Money, Banking, and Payments, held during the weeks of August 3-7 and August 23-27, 2004.
Discussion Paper
Evaluating the macroeconomic effects of a temporary investment tax credit
As part of a fiscal stimulus package, some members of Congress have recently proposed a temporary investment subsidy. This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to evaluate the likely macroeconomic effects of such a subsidy. The model predicts a 0.8 percentage point increase in output growth for the quarter in which the policy is implemented. In subsequent quarters, the output growth effects are negligible. As the subsidy ends, output growth falls by 1 percentage point before returning to its trend growth rate. While a permanent subsidy will lead to more capital deepening in the long ...