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Report
President's Message. Our Leadership in Literacy
Bullard, James B. (2016)
Annual Report

Report
A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting
Litterman, Robert B. (1982)
This paper surveys recent issues in macroeconomics from the viewpoint of dynamic economic theory. The need to look beyond demand and supply curves and the insights that come from doing so are emphasized. Examples of issues in debt management and fiscal policy are analyzed.
Staff Report , Paper 78

Report
Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?
Yi, Kei-Mu (2000)
The growth in the trade share of output is one of the most important features of the world economy since World War II. The growth is generally thought to have been generated by falling tariff barriers worldwide. This thinking, however, does not square with standard static and dynamic international trade models. Because tariff barriers have decreased little since the early 1960s, these models cannot explain the growth of trade without assuming counterfactually large elasticities of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. I show that this growth can be reconciled with the relatively ...
Staff Reports , Paper 96

Report
GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix
Almuzara, Martín; Amengual, Dante; Fiorentini, Gabriele; Sentana, Enrique (2022-08-01)
We exploit the information in the successive vintages of gross domestic expenditure (GDE) and gross domestic income (GDI) from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved, timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking their monthly release calendar seriously. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, does not generate noticeable revisions in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1027

Report
Summary of the Workshop on Credit Card Lending and Payments
Dolson, Erik; Canals-Cerda, Jose J. (2021-05-14)
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Supervisory Research Forum (SURF) and Consumer Finance Institute (CFI) held the virtual Workshop on Credit Card Lending and Payments on September 16‒17, 2020. The workshop included sessions on payment systems and financial innovation, the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on consumer finance and credit use, and the industry impact of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI). This summary offers highlights of keynote speakers, academic paper presentations, and discussion panels.
Consumer Finance Institute conference summaries

Report
Report to the Congress on the Profitability of Credit Card Operations of Depository Institutions, June 1999
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999)
Section 8 of the Fair Credit and Charge Card Disclosure Act of 1988 directs the Federal Reserve to transmit annually to the Congress a report about the profitability of credit card operations of depository institutions. This is the tenth annual report. The analysis here is based to a great extent on information from the Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report) and two Federal Reserve surveys, the Quarterly Report of Credit Card Interest Rates and the Survey of Terms of Credit Card Plans.
Reports and Studies

Report
Systematically missing data in econometric models
Skoog, Gary R. (1976)
Staff Report , Paper 13

Report
Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market
Rosenberg, Joshua V.; Traub, Leah G. (2006)
In this paper, we compare price discovery in the foreign exchange futures and spot markets during a period in which the spot market was less transparent but had higher volume than the futures market. We develop a foreign exchange futures order flow measure that is a proxy for the order flow observed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange pit traders. We find that both foreign currency futures and spot order flow contain unique information relevant to exchange rate determination. When we measure contributions to price discovery using the methods of Hasbrouck and of Gonzalo and Granger, we obtain ...
Staff Reports , Paper 262

Report
Spillovers and Spillbacks
Acharya, Sushant; Pesenti, Paolo (2024-03-01)
We study international monetary policy spillovers and spillbacks in a tractable two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as households in both countries face uninsurable income risk, and a real-income channel, as households have heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume (MPC). While both channels amplify the size of spillovers/spillbacks, only precautionary savings can change their sign relative to RANK. Spillovers are likely to be larger in economies with higher ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1089

Report
E-commerce is changing how we work and live
anonymous (1999)
Annual Report

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