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Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: 1. overview of methodology and application
Boldin, Michael D. (1992)
Switching Models are advocated as interesting and tractable alternatives to conventional, linear models of the business cycle. Applications are motivated by the belief that expansions and recessions are distinct regimes with different data generating processes. Therefore, it is important that econometric specifications capture this fundamental asymmetry. With Switching Models, both the time-periods and characteristics of business cycle regimes can be derived simultaneously. Asymmetries can then be tested with a minimum of prior modeling assumptions and restrictions. Results with monthly data ...
Research Paper , Paper 9211

Report
Banks' reserve management, transaction costs, and the timing of the Federal Reserve intervention
Bartolini, Leonardo; Prati, Alessandro; Bertola, Giuseppe (2000)
We use daily data on bank reserves and overnight interest rates to document a striking pattern in the high-frequency behavior of the U.S. market for federal funds: depository institutions tend to hold more reserves during the last few days of each "reserve maintenance period," when the opportunity cost of holding reserves is typically highest. We then propose and analyze a model of the federal funds market where uncertain liquidity flows and transaction costs induce banks to delay trading and to bid up interest rates at the end of each maintenance period. In this context, the central bank's ...
Staff Reports , Paper 109

Report
Bond market discipline of banks: is the market tough enough?
Morgan, Donald P.; Stiroh, Kevin J. (1999-12-01)
As the banking business grows more complex, government supervisors of banks seem increasingly willing to share the role of policing bank risk with private investors, especially bondholders. This paper investigates the disciplinary role of markets using bond spreads, ratings, and bank portfolio data on over 4,100 new bonds issued between 1993 and 1998, including almost 600 bond issues by banks and bank holding companies. We find that the bond spread/rating relationship is the same for the bank issues as for nonbank issues, especially among the investment grade issues. This suggests that the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 95

Report
Sovereign risk and firm heterogeneity
Bai, Yan; Arellano, Cristina; Bocola, Luigi (2017-03-22)
This paper studies the recessionary effects of sovereign default risk using firm-level data and a model of sovereign debt with firm heterogeneity. Our environment features a two-way feedback loop. Low output decreases the tax revenues of the government and raises the risk that it will default on its debt. The associated increase in sovereign interest rate spreads, in turn, raises the interest rates paid by firms, which further depresses their production. Importantly, these effects are not homogeneous across firms, as interest rate hikes have more severe consequences for firms that are in need ...
Staff Report , Paper 547

Report
Report to the Congress on the Office of Minority and Women Inclusion, March 2016
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2016)
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board) is responsible for implementing numerous provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 (Dodd-Frank Act). The Dodd-Frank Act requires, among other things, that the Board produce reports to Congress on a number of topics. The Board maintains a Regulatory Reform website, which provides an overview of regulatory reform efforts implementing the Dodd-Frank Act and a list of the implementation initiatives completed by the Board as well as the most significant initiatives the Board expects to address in ...
Reports and Studies

Report
The right stuff: America's move to mass customization
Alm, Richard; Cox, W. Michael (1998)
Annual Report

Report
(Annual Report 2021) The Blockchain Revolution: Decoding Digital Currencies
St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank (2022-04-20)
Annual Report

Report
Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization
Grasing, Jamie; Rosa, Carlo; Frame, W. Scott; Malin, Benjamin A.; Cavallo, Michele; Del Negro, Marco (2018-01-01)
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Staff Reports , Paper 833

Report
Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach
Viana, Sandra; Hung, Juann H. (1995)
The U.S. service surplus soared from near zero in 1985 to about $60 billion in 1992, offsetting about two thirds of the goods trade deficit. Could this merely reflect improvement in data collection? Or does this mean U.S. services industries are more competitive internationally than goods industries? Is the services surplus likely to continue to rise? This paper estimates a forecastable model of U.S. services trade to address the above questions. We find that data improvement actually had a negative net impact on the services surplus, since it affected imports more than exports. Instead, the ...
Research Paper , Paper 9518

Report
The Theory of Financial Stability Meets Reality
Boyarchenko, Nina; Hachem, Kinda; Kleymenova, Anya V. (2025-06-01)
A large literature at the intersection of economics and finance offers prescriptions for regulating banks to increase financial stability. This literature abstracts from the discretion that accounting standards give banks over financial reporting, creating a gap between the information assumed to be available to regulators in models of optimal regulation and the information available to regulators in reality. We bridge insights from the economics, finance, and accounting literatures to synthesize knowledge about the design and implementation of bank regulation and identify areas where more ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1155

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