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Discussion Paper
The Disproportionate Effects of COVID-19 on Households with Children
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel (2020-08-13)
A growing body of evidence points to large negative economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on low-income, Black, and Hispanic Americans (see this LSE post and reports by Pew Research and Harvard). Beyond the consequences of school cancellations and lost social interactions, there exists considerable concern about the long-lasting effects of economic hardship on children. In this post, we assess the extent of the underlying economic and financial strain faced by households with children living at home, using newly collected data from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200813

Discussion Paper
Inequality in U.S. Homeownership Rates by Race and Ethnicity
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-07-08)
Homeownership has historically been an important means for Americans to accumulate wealth—in fact, at more than $15 trillion, housing equity accounts for 16 percent of total U.S. household wealth. Consequently, the U.S. homeownership cycle has triggered large swings in Americans’ net worth over the past twenty-five years. However, the nature of those swings has varied significantly by race and ethnicity, with different demographic groups tracing distinct trajectories through the housing boom, the foreclosure crisis, and the subsequent recovery. Here, we look into the dynamics underlying ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200708a

Discussion Paper
Economic Expectations Grow Less Polarized since the 2016 Election
Armantier, Olivier; Neubauer, Michael; Skandalis, Daphne; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2019-05-13)
In two previous blog posts (from January 2017 and December 2017), we examined political polarization in economic expectations in the period immediately after the 2016 presidential election using the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Today, we begin a two-part series that revisits the issue. In this post, we provide an update on how economic expectations have evolved in counties where a plurality voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and counties where a plurality voted for Hillary Clinton. In a second post, we will look at how economic expectations differed in the run-up to the 2018 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190513

Discussion Paper
Racial Disparities in Student Loan Outcomes
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2019-11-13)
Total household debt balances increased by $92 billion in the third quarter of 2019, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. The balance increase reflected nearly across the board gains in various types of debt, with the largest gains of $31 billion in mortgage balances (0.3 percent) and $20 billion in student loan balances (1.4 percent). The Quarterly Report, and the following analysis, are both based on the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, which is itself based on anonymized Equifax credit report ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191113a

Journal Article
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-23-02)
The authors present an overview of the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on respondents? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. It has three main goals: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. The authors discuss the origins of the survey, the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-2 , Pages 51-72

Discussion Paper
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2015-07-13)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June. In this post, we review some of the key findings from the first two years of the survey’s history, highlighting the most noteworthy trends revealed in the data.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150713a

Discussion Paper
Consumers Expect Modest Increase in Spending Growth and Continued Government Support
Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel (2020-09-28)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its August 2020 SCE Household Spending Survey and SCE Public Policy Survey. The former provides information on consumers' experiences and expectations regarding household spending, while the latter provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes for a wide range of fiscal and social policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since December 2014 for the SCE Household Spending Survey and October 2015 for the SCE ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200928b

Discussion Paper
Introducing the SCE Housing Survey
Cocci, Matthew; Zafar, Basit; Fuster, Andreas; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-09-08)
In February 2014, we administered a survey on housing-related issues to the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) panelists. Our primary goal was to secure rich and high-quality information on consumers? experiences and expectations regarding housing. The survey, among other things, collected data on households? perceptions and expectations of the growth in home prices, their intentions regarding moving or buying a new home, and their access to credit. In addition, for homeowners, we collected detailed information on their mortgage debt, past experiences such as foreclosure or refinancing, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140908

Discussion Paper
How Do People Revise Their Inflation Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-08-22)
The New York Fed started releasing results from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) three years ago, in June 2013. The SCE is a monthly, nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. Its goal, as described in a series of Liberty Street Economics posts, is to collect timely and high-quality information on consumer expectations about a broad range of topics, covering both macroeconomic variables and the households' own situation. In this post, we look at what drives changes in consumer inflation expectations. Do people respond to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160822

Discussion Paper
An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Goldman, Leo; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2021-04-07)
In October, we reported evidence on how households used their first economic impact payments, which they started to receive in mid-April 2020 as part of the CARES Act, and how they expected to use a second stimulus payment. In this post, we exploit new survey data to examine how households used the second round of stimulus checks, issued starting at the end of December 2020 as part of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act, and we investigate how they plan to use the third round authorized in March under the American Rescue Plan Act. We find remarkable ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210407

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