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Discussion Paper
Just Released: Total Household Debt Nears 2008 Peak but Debt Picture Looks Much Different
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2017-02-16)
The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed?s Center for Microeconomic Data showed a substantial increase in aggregate household debt balances in the fourth quarter of 2016 and for the year as a whole. As of December 31, 2016, total household debt stood at $12.58 trillion, an increase of $226 billion (or 1.8 percent) from the third quarter of 2016. Total household debt is now just 0.8 percent ($99 billion) below its third quarter 2008 peak of $12.68 trillion, and 12.8 percent above the second quarter 2013 trough. But debt looks very different in 2016 than it ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20170216
Discussion Paper
Mixed Impacts of the Federal Tax Reform on Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Conlon, John; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2018-05-23)
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 changed the tax brackets, tax rates, credits and deductions for individuals and similarly altered corporate tax rates, deductions and exclusions. In this post, we examine whether the reform has shifted individuals’ expectations about their financial situation and the macroeconomic outlook. We also ask whether households have already started to adjust their behavior in line with their expectations. In order to answer these questions, we use novel data from a special module of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) fielded in February 2018 ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20180523
Journal Article
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Zafar, Basit; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Armantier, Olivier; Topa, Giorgio
(2017-23-02)
The authors present an overview of the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on respondents? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. It has three main goals: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. The authors discuss the origins of the survey, the ...
Economic Policy Review
, Issue 23-2
, Pages 51-72
Discussion Paper
Inequality in U.S. Homeownership Rates by Race and Ethnicity
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2020-07-08)
Homeownership has historically been an important means for Americans to accumulate wealth—in fact, at more than $15 trillion, housing equity accounts for 16 percent of total U.S. household wealth. Consequently, the U.S. homeownership cycle has triggered large swings in Americans’ net worth over the past twenty-five years. However, the nature of those swings has varied significantly by race and ethnicity, with different demographic groups tracing distinct trajectories through the housing boom, the foreclosure crisis, and the subsequent recovery. Here, we look into the dynamics underlying ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20200708a
Discussion Paper
Just Released: Who's Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Yun, David; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2014-02-18)
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007. More importantly, between 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q4, total household debt rose $180 billion, marking the first four-quarter increase in outstanding debt since 2008. As net household borrowing resumes, it is interesting to see who is driving these balance changes, and to compare some of today’s patterns with those of the boom period.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20140218b
Discussion Paper
An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Goldman, Leo; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2021-04-07)
In October, we reported evidence on how households used their first economic impact payments, which they started to receive in mid-April 2020 as part of the CARES Act, and how they expected to use a second stimulus payment. In this post, we exploit new survey data to examine how households used the second round of stimulus checks, issued starting at the end of December 2020 as part of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act, and we investigate how they plan to use the third round authorized in March under the American Rescue Plan Act. We find remarkable ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20210407
Discussion Paper
Just Released: Subprime Auto Debt Grows Despite Rising Delinquencies
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2016-11-30)
The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed's Center for Microeconomic Data showed a small increase in overall debt in the third quarter of 2016, bolstered by gains in non-housing debt. Mortgage balances continue to grow at a sluggish pace since the recession while auto loan balances are growing steadily. The rise in auto loans has been fueled by high levels of originations across the spectrum of creditworthiness, including subprime loans, which are disproportionately originated by auto finance companies. Disaggregating delinquency rates by credit score ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20161130
Discussion Paper
Just Released: Cleaning Up Collections
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon
(2018-08-14)
Household debt balances continued their upward trend in the second quarter, with increases in mortgage, auto, and credit card balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed?s Center for Microeconomic Data. Student loans were roughly flat, a typical seasonal pattern in the second quarter. The Quarterly Report contains summaries of the types of information that is covered in credit reports, sourced from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP). The CCP is based on anonymized Equifax credit reports and is the source for the analysis ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20180814
Report
Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities
Ransom, Tyler; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2019-04-01)
Residential mobility rates in the United States have fallen considerably over the past three decades. The cause of the long-term decline remains largely unexplained. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of alternative drivers of residential mobility, including job opportunities, neighborhood and housing amenities, social networks, and housing and moving costs, using data from two waves of the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our hypothetical choice methodology elicits choice probabilities from which we recover the distribution of preferences for location and ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 883
Discussion Paper
Just Released: Looking under the Hood of the Subprime Auto Lending Market
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2014-08-14)
Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the second quarter of 2014. Aggregate debt was relatively flat in the second quarter as housing-related debt shrank, held down by sluggish mortgage originations. But non-housing debt balances increased across the board, with especially strong gains in auto loans. Auto loan balances, which include leases, have increased for thirteen straight quarters, and originations have not been this high since the third quarter of 2006. The Quarterly Report and the following analysis are based on data from the New York ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20140814
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