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Discussion Paper
Introducing the SCE Public Policy Survey
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle; Koşar, Gizem (2019-10-17)
Households cope with considerable uncertainty in forming plans and making decisions. This includes uncertainty about their personal situations as well as about their external environment. An important source of uncertainty arises from (often abrupt) changes in government policy, including changes in tax rates and in the benefit level of social programs. Tracking individuals? subjective beliefs about future policy changes is important for understanding their behavior as consumers and workers. For example, knowing the extent to which tax changes and other shifts in public policy are anticipated ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191017

Report
The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation
Armantier, Olivier; Downs, Julie S.; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Fischhoff, Baruch; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi (2010)
Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about "prices in general" to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of inflation, showing some tendency toward overestimation and considerable disagreement between respondents. Possibly, responses reflect how much respondents thought of salient personal experiences with specific prices when being asked about "prices in general." Here, we randomly assigned respondents to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 443

Discussion Paper
Household Borrowing in Historical Perspective
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2017-05-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2017. The report shows a rise in household debt balances in the quarter of $149 billion, the eleventh consecutive quarterly increase since the long period of deleveraging following the Great Recession. As of March 31, 2017, household debt balances stood at $12.73 trillion, surpassing the previous 2008 peak and hitting a level 14 percent above the trough seen in the second quarter of 2013. With this report’s release, we’re adding two new charts which ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170517

Discussion Paper
Just Released: A Closer Look at Recent Tightening in Consumer Credit
Scally, Joelle; Armantier, Olivier; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2018-12-03)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released results today from its October 2018 SCE Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit access. The survey is fielded every four months and was previously fielded in June.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181203

Discussion Paper
Household Formation within the “Boomerang Generation”
Brown, Meta; Lee, Donghoon; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Bleemer, Zachary (2015-02-04)
Young Americans? living arrangements have changed strikingly over the past fifteen years, with recent cohorts entering the housing market at much lower rates and lingering much longer in their parents? households. The New York Times Magazine reported this past summer on the surge in college-educated young people who ?boomerang? back to living with their parents after graduation. Joining that trend are the many other members of this cohort who have never left home, whether or not they attend college. Why might young people increasingly reside with their parents? They may be unable to find ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150204

Report
The financial crisis at the kitchen table: trends in household debt and credit
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Brown, Meta; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2010)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Consumer Credit Panel, created from a sample of U.S. consumer credit reports, is an ongoing panel of quarterly data on individual and household debt. The panel shows a substantial run-up in total consumer indebtedness between the first quarter of 1999 and the peak in the third quarter of 2008, followed by a steady decline through the third quarter of 2010. During the same period, delinquencies rose sharply: Delinquent balances peaked at the close of 2009 and then began to decline again. This paper documents these trends and discusses their sources. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 480

Discussion Paper
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting
Koşar, Gizem; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Smith, Kyle; Pomerantz, Rachel; Armantier, Olivier; Skandalis, Daphne (2020-04-06)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200406b

Report
Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Manski, Charles F.; Topa, Giorgio; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi (2009)
Survey measures of consumer inflation expectations have an important shortcoming in that, while providing useful summary measures of the distribution of point forecasts across individuals, they contain no direct information about an individual's uncertainty about future inflation. The latter is important not only for forecasting inflation and other macroeconomic outcomes, but also for assessing a central bank's credibility and effectiveness of communication. This paper explores the feasibility of eliciting individual consumers' subjective probability distributions of future inflation ...
Staff Reports , Paper 415

Discussion Paper
Diplomas to Doorsteps: Education, Student Debt, and Homeownership
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Gorton, Nicole; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-04-03)
Evidence overwhelmingly shows that the average earnings premium to having a college education is high and has risen over the past several decades, in part because of a decline in real average earnings for those without a college degree. In addition to high private returns, there are substantial social returns to having a well-educated citizenry and workforce. A new development that may have important longer-term implications for education investment and for the broader economy is a significant change in the financing of higher education. State funding has declined markedly over the past two ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170403

Discussion Paper
Looking at Student Loan Defaults through a Larger Window
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Brown, Meta; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2015-02-19)
Most of our previous discussion about high levels of student loan delinquency and default has used static measures of payment status. But it is also instructive to consider the experience of borrowers over the lifetime of their student loans rather than at a point in time. In this second post in our three-part series on student loans, we use the Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is itself based on Equifax credit data, to create cohort default rates (CDRs) that are analogous to those produced by the Department of Education but go beyond their three-year window. We find that default rates ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150219

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