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Author:Stein, Hillary 

Working Paper
Got Milk? The Effect of Export Price Shocks on Exchange Rates

I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand’s dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent increase in whole milk powder prices has a modest, but nevertheless significant, effect on the nominal ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-1

Report
Interest Expenses, Coverage Ratio, and Firm Distress

Historically, the pass-through of federal funds rate increases into firms’ interest expenses has been incomplete and delayed, with the peak responses occurring about one year after a policy rate increase. These findings indicate that current corporate interest rate expenses will continue to increase, even absent any additional rate hikes going forward. Higher interest expenses can lead to firm distress and defaults, which have adverse effects on employment and investment. These effects can be amplified through the financial accelerator channel.
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
Risk Management and Derivatives Losses

Even though financial risk management has the ability to generate value, the use of financial derivatives among nonfinancial corporations remains limited. We identify a channel that contributes to this limited use: the decoupling of derivatives losses and operational gains. Specifically, firms ex post consider their operational profits separately from their derivatives profits. We explore this phenomenon among firms in Mexico. We use the universe of US dollar Mexican peso currency derivatives transactions in Mexico along with customs data to construct a unique data set on operational exchange ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-8

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