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Author:Sly, Nicholas 

Journal Article
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain

The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit

Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles

Using a 30-year panel of quarterly GDP ?uctuations from of a broad set of countries, we demonstrate that the signing of a bilateral tax treaty increases the comovement of treaty partners' business cycles by 1/2 a standard deviation. This e?ect of ?scal policy is as large as the e?ect of trade linkages on comovement, and stronger than the e?ects of several other common ?nancial and investment linkages. We also show that bilateral tax treaties increase comovement in shocks to nations? GDP trends, demonstrating the permanent e?ects of coordination on ?scal policy rules. We estimate trend and ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-7

Journal Article
How Does a Rise in International Shipping Costs Affect U.S. Inflation?

Trenton Herriford, Elizabeth M. Johnson, Nicholas Sly, and A. Lee Smith find that an increase in ocean shipping costs leads to a modest boost in core inflation after one year.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies

Estimating the causal effect of offshoring on domestic employment is difficult because of the inherent simultaneity of multinational firms? domestic and foreign affiliate employment decisions. In this paper, we resolve this identification problem using variation in Bilateral Tax Treaties (BTTs), which reduce the effective cost of offshore activity by mitigating double taxation. We derive a panel difference-in-differences research design from a standard model of multinational firms, demonstrating the simultaneity problem and showing how to resolve it using BTTs as an instrument for offshore ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-12

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions Can Be Seen Anywhere, but Their Costs Are Not the Same Everywhere

Although ubiquitous, supply chain challenges are exerting more cost pressures on the types of businessesconcentrated in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region are less willing or able to adjustthe amount of imported goods they purchase even when procurement prices rise precipitously, as they have over the past year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue January 12, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment

Corporate debt levels have grown substantially during the 10-year recovery from the global financial crisis. This debt might be expected to finance investments that support firm expansion, as the U.S. economy has experienced strong growth over the last 10 years. However, much of the corporate debt has been used to reallocate capital through mergers and acquisitions rather than to fund investment activity. Perhaps as a result, some market watchers have expressed concerns that corporations are crowding out, rather than complementing, new investment. {{p}} David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly show ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 33-52

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports

Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods.
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-23

Journal Article
Labor Market Improvement and the Use of Subsidized Housing Programs

The authors estimated how state-level changes in labor market conditions for particular sex, age, and race groups affect participation in a variety of subsidized housing programs.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 37-58

Journal Article
Global capital flows from China

Jun Nie and Nicholas Sly examine recent trends in capital flows from China and the implications for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

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