Currency unions and trade: a post-EMU mea culpa
In our European Economic Review (2002) paper, we used pre-1998 data on countries participating in and leaving currency unions to estimate the effect of currency unions on trade using (then-) conventional gravity models. In this paper, we use a variety of empirical gravity models to estimate the currency union effect on trade and exports, using recent data which includes the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We have three findings. First, our assumption of symmetry between the effects of entering and leaving a currency union seems reasonable in the data but is uninteresting. Second, ...
How pervasive is the product cycle? The empirical dynamics of American and Japanese trade flows
This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using multilateral American and Japanese data disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. Little evidence is found of product-cycle dynamics between 1962 and 1988; rather, goods that begin the sample in surplus (deficit) tend to remain in surplus (deficit) throughout the sample.
Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System
This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange rates, interest rates, and international reserves. We develop stylized facts concerning the univariate behavior of a variety of macroeconomic variables, comparing crises with periods of tranquility. For ERM observations we cannot reject the null hypothesis that there are few significant differences in the behavior of key macroeconomic variables between crises and non-crisis periods. This null ...
Do currency unions increase trade? A \\"gravity\\" approach
Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment
We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of the nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic, external and foreign factors. Our factors are significantly related to crash incidence, especially output growth, the rate of change of domestic credit, and foreign interest rates. A low ratio of FDI to debt is ...
Is there a case for an Asian Monetary Fund?
Waiting for work
Offshore financial centers: parasites or symbionts?
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries. Nevertheless, OFCs may also have unintended positive consequences for their neighbors, since they act as a competitive fringe for the domestic banking sector. We derive and simulate a model of a home country monopoly bank facing a representative competitive OFC which offers tax advantages attained by moving assets offshore at a cost that is increasing in distance between the OFC and the source. Our ...
Non-economic engagement and international exchange: the case of environmental treaties
We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as environmental treaties, environmental engagement tends to encourage international lending. Countries with such non-economic partnerships also find it easier to engage in economic exchanges since they face the possibility that debt default might also spill over to hinder their non-economic relationships. We present a theoretical model of these ideas, and then verify their empirical importance using a ...