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Author:Kozlowski, Julian 

Blog
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III: Variance across Sectors and Firms

Corporate bond spreads widened when COVID-19 initially began spreading, then spreads stabilized. How have spreads fared across individual sectors and issuances from the same firm?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Tail Risk: Part 1, The Persistent Effects of the Great Recession

Financial panic is a new reality that may be affecting the aggregate economy.
Economic Synopses , Issue 18

Journal Article
Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession

What is driving the missing economic recovery since the Great Recession?
Economic Synopses , Issue 19

Journal Article
Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets

The liquidity of government bonds has been even more valuable since the Great Recession.
Economic Synopses , Issue 20

Journal Article
What Is Driving Student Debt in the Eighth District?

Tuition appears to be a bigger driver of student debt growth in the Eighth District than in the U.S. as a whole.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 2

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing

We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina, with over 9 million observations per day. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions?i.e., product prices almost do not vary within stores of a chain. Uniform pricing implies that prices would not change with regional conditions or shocks, particularly so if chains operate in several regions. We confirm this hypothesis using employment data. While prices in stores of chains operating almost exclusively in one region do react to changes in regional employment, stores of chains that operate in many regions do not seem to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-24

Journal Article
Investment and Bilateral Insurance

Private information may limit insurance possibilities when two agents get together to pool idiosyncratic risk. However, if there is capital accumulation, bilateral insurance possibilities may improve because misreporting distorts investment. We show that if one of the Pareto weights is sufficiently large, that agent does not have incentives to misreport. This implies that, under some conditions, the full information allocation is incentive compatible when agents have equal Pareto weights. In the long run, either one of the agents goes to immiseration, or both agents’ lifetime utilities are ...
Working Papers , Volume 176 , Pages 311-341

Working Paper
Investment and Bilateral Insurance

Private information may limit insurance possibilities when two agents get together to pool idiosyncratic risk. However, if there is capital accumulation, bilateral insurance possibilities may improve because misreporting distorts investment. We show that if one of the Pareto weights is sufficiently large, that agent does not have incentives to misreport. This implies that, under some conditions, the full information allocation is incentive compatible when agents have equal Pareto weights. In the long run, either one of the agents goes to immiseration, or both agents’ lifetime utilities are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-001

Working Paper
Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19

The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise if it changed behavior long after the immediate health crisis is resolved. A common explanation for such a long-lived effect is the scarring of beliefs. We show how to quantify the extent of such belief changes and determine their impact on future economic outcomes. We find that the long-run effect of the COVID crisis depends crucially on whether bankruptcies and changes in habit make existing capital obsolete. A policy that avoided most permanent separation of workers from capital could generate a much larger benefit than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-009

Working Paper
Uniform Pricing Within and Across Regions: New Evidence from Argentina

We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina, with over 9 million observations per day. Our main novel inding is that product prices almost do not vary within stores of a chain (i.e., uniform pricing). We also find that prices do not change significantly with regional conditions or shocks, particularly so for chains that operate in many regions. To study the impact of uniform pricing on both consumers and firms, this paper uses a tractable model based on the trade literature. Motivated by our empirical findings, each firm has to set the same price in both regions. Relative to a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-10

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