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EITC increases labor force participation among married Black mothers
Research has shown that the Earned Income Tax Credit, the largest of the U.S. antipoverty programs, boosts labor force participation among single mothers. It does not, in the aggregate, have the same effect on married mothers.
Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation
As consumer prices have climbed at a faster rate in Texas and surrounding states than nationally—food and shelter increasing even more—Texans are feeling especially stressed about rising prices.
Texas shows signs of slowing; price pressures ease despite buoyant services
Texas job growth slowed in June, though it still exceeded the U.S. rate. Meanwhile, the state economy continued to expand despite the downshift in employment and weakness in manufacturing.
Labor market recovery and wage growth unequal across age groups after pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic severely depressed U.S. labor force participation. Although the pandemic has eased, people ages 20–24 and those over 55 have been less likely to return to the workforce.
High inflation disproportionately hurts low-income households
Household survey results do not support Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent suggestion that low-income families “have actually been hurt less by inflation than families with higher incomes.”
Economic outlook weakens as job growth, inflation slow
The Texas economy is continuing to slow during the fourth quarter, with labor demand and manufacturing output softening and wage and price pressures easing.
Journal Article
Hotter summer days heat up Texans but chill the state economy
As climate change intensifies over the next decade, summer heat waves will likely become more common and severe. The effect on Texas GDP growth is likely to be twice as pronounced as in the rest of the U.S. Meanwhile, the effect on job growth will likely be relatively subdued but vary widely across sectors.
Journal Article
Texas’ cheap housing edge slipping away as resilient demand outpaces supply
Housing affordability has declined in Texas, a top destination for domestic and international migrants drawn by its historically low cost of living.
Strong Texas job gains encounter economic uncertainty, signs of slowing
Weakness in Texas’ manufacturing sector has been largely offset by modest service sector growth, producing a mixed overall economic picture.
Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and consumer ...