Working Paper

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Abstract: The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and consumer price index. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes are also useful in predicting future changes in some of these regional economic indicators.

Keywords: manufacturing; surveys; forecasting;

JEL Classification: L60; C83; C53;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2024-03-28

Number: 2402

Note: This paper is related to Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 1416,"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance."

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