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Journal Article
The Texas economy beats expectations
Journal Article
Regional update
Journal Article
The Texas economy: an overview of '96 and outlook for '97
Journal Article
The 1997 Texas economy beats expectations
Journal Article
Regional update
Journal Article
Regional update
Working Paper
The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting
We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.
Working Paper
Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts
The authors forecast current-quarter real GDP growth using monthly data that would have been available to an analyst in real time. They demonstrate that using real-time data is of major importance both when estimating GDP forecasting models and when evaluating their performance. Moreover, the authors show that the out-of-sample forecasting performance of their model is comparable or superior to that of the Blue-Chip consensus forecast provided that more than one month of current-quarter data are available