Working Paper
Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts
Abstract: The authors forecast current-quarter real GDP growth using monthly data that would have been available to an analyst in real time. They demonstrate that using real-time data is of major importance both when estimating GDP forecasting models and when evaluating their performance. Moreover, the authors show that the out-of-sample forecasting performance of their model is comparable or superior to that of the Blue-Chip consensus forecast provided that more than one month of current-quarter data are available
Keywords: Gross domestic product;
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 1997
Number: 9710