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Fundamental disagreement
Moench, Emanuel; Eusepi, Stefano; Andrade, Philippe; Crump, Richard K. (2013-12-01)
We use the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters to document a novel set of facts: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables: it is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time-varying at all horizons, including the long run. These new facts present a challenge to benchmark models of expectation formation based on informational frictions. We show that these models require two ...
Staff Reports , Paper 655

Discussion Paper
What Is Corporate Bond Market Distress?
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2022-06-29)
Corporate bonds are a key source of funding for U.S. non-financial corporations and a key investment security for insurance companies, pension funds, and mutual funds. Distress in the corporate bond market can thus both impair access to credit for corporate borrowers and reduce investment opportunities for key financial sub-sectors. In a February 2021 Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced a unified measure of corporate bond market distress, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI), then followed up in early June 2022 with a look at how corporate bond market functioning evolved ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220629

Report
The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Sahin, Aysegul (2024-03-01)
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative unemployment gaps. Through the lens of the model, the 2022-23 disinflation was driven by the expectation that the unemployment gap will close through a progressive decline in ut* and a rise in the unemployment rate. This implies that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1086

Discussion Paper
Real Inventory Slowdowns
Lucca, David O.; McQuillan, Casey; Crump, Richard K. (2019-11-18)
Inventory investment plays a central role in business cycle fluctuations. This post examines whether inventory investment amplifies or dampens economic fluctuations following a tightening in financial conditions. We find evidence supporting an amplification mechanism. This analysis suggests that inventory accumulation will be a drag on economic activity this year but provide a boost in 2020.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191118

Discussion Paper
Changing Risk-Return Profiles
Crump, Richard K.; Hundtofte , Sean; Giannone, Domenico (2018-10-04)
Are stock returns predictable? This question is a perennially popular subject of debate. In this post, we highlight some results from our recent working paper, where we investigate the matter. Rather than focusing on a single object like the forecasted mean or median, we look at the entire distribution of stock returns and find that the realized volatility of stock returns, especially financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of stock returns. This is a robust feature of the data since all of our results are obtained with real-time analyses ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181004

Report
A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannone, Domenico; Qian, Eric; Sbordone, Argia M. (2021-08-01)
We model the United States macroeconomic and financial sectors using a formal and unified econometric model. Through shrinkage, our Bayesian VAR provides a flexible framework for modeling the dynamics of thirty-one variables, many of which are tracked by the Federal Reserve. We show how the model can be used for understanding key features of the data, constructing counterfactual scenarios, and evaluating the macroeconomic environment both retrospectively and prospectively. Considering its breadth and versatility for policy applications, our modeling approach gives a reliable, reduced form ...
Staff Reports , Paper 976

Journal Article
Review of New York Fed studies on the effects of post-crisis banking reforms
Crump, Richard K.; Santos, Joao A. C. (2018-24-02)
In 2017, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York initiated a project to examine the effects of post-crisis reforms on bank performance and vulnerability. The project, which was completed in June 2018, consisted of twelve studies evaluating a wide set of regulatory changes. The primary focus was how these regulatory changes affected the risk taking, funding costs, and profitability of banks, as well as their impact on liquidity. In this article, the authors survey the twelve papers that make up the project and place the principal findings in the context of the current academic and policymaking ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-2 , Pages 71-90

Discussion Paper
Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting
Moench, Emanuel; Eusepi, Stefano; Crump, Richard K. (2013-09-09)
Following the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting different measures of short-term interest rates increased notably. In the chart below, we plot two such measures: the two-year Treasury yield and the one-year overnight indexed swap (OIS) forward rate, one year in the future. The vertical line indicates the final day of the June FOMC meeting. To what extent did this rise in rates following the June FOMC meeting reflect a shift in the expected future path of the federal funds rate (FFR)? Market participants and policy makers often directly read the expected path from ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130909

Discussion Paper
Making a Statement: How Did Professional Forecasters React to the August 2011 FOMC Statement?
Moench, Emanuel; Eusepi, Stefano; Crump, Richard K. (2013-01-07)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on August 9, 2011, was the first to incorporate language on “forward guidance” with an explicit date tied to the Committee’s expected path of monetary policy. In this post, we exploit the timing of surveys taken before and after this statement’s release to investigate how professional forecasters changed their expectations of growth, inflation, and monetary policy. We find that the average forecast of the federal funds rate shifts considerably and closely aligns with the new language in the statement, while the average ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130107

Discussion Paper
Skills Mismatch, Construction Workers and the Labor Market
Crump, Richard K.; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-03-29)
Recessions and recoveries typically have been times of substantial reallocation in the economy and the labor market, and the current cycle does not appear to be an exception. The speed and smoothness of reallocation depend in part on the structure of the labor market, particularly the degree of mismatch between the characteristics of available workers and newly available jobs. Such mismatches could occur because of differences in skills between workers and jobs (skills mismatch) or because of differences in the location of the available jobs and available workers (geographic mismatch). In ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120329

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