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Pandemic Disproportionately Affects Women, Minority Labor Force Participation
Data showing changes in labor force participation rates for several demographics reveal that women with children, especially Black women, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.
Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking
Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.
Nominal GDP Outlook Suggests It's Time to End Monetary Accommodation
We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.
The Labor Market May Be Tighter than the Level of Employment Suggests
Nonfarm payroll employment disappointed in April, increasing just 266,000, well below consensus expectations of nearly 1 million new jobs. With payroll employment remaining well below its prior peak, slow job growth would typically suggest weak demand for labor from firms and limited employment opportunities for job seekers. Current conditions in the labor market, however, may be far from typical.
Assessing the costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis and its aftermath
There are few estimates of what society gave up due to the crisis: Our conservative estimate is $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household.
Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains
The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.
Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing
The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.
How bad was it? The costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis
The 2007?09 financial crisis was associated with a huge loss of economic output and financial wealth, psychological consequences and skill atrophy from extended unemployment, an increase in government intervention, and other significant costs. Assuming the financial crisis is to blame for these associated ills, an estimate of its cost is needed to weigh against the cost of policies intended to prevent similar episodes. We conservatively estimate that 40 to 90 percent of one year's output ($6 trillion to $14 trillion, the equivalent of $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household) was foregone ...
The Production Process Drives Fluctuations in Output and Uncertainty
If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.
U.S. Economic Rebound Uneven amid Resurgent Local COVID-19 Outbreaks
A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity appears unlikely until the virus is under control.