Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 18.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Atkinson, Tyler 

Journal Article
Gauging the odds of a double-dip recession amid signals and slowdowns

Public sentiment says the recession isn't over. Never mind that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the arbiter of recessions, declared that the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 officially ended in June 2009. An unrelenting pessimism constrains the recovery as consumers spend reluctantly while paying down debt, gripped by persistent fears of unemployment. The economy grew at a 2.5 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP), a moderate improvement after two quarters of decelerating growth during the recovery. ...
Economic Letter , Volume 5 , Issue 12 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
High unemployment points to below-target (but still stable) inflation

The Federal Reserve has a mandate to promote price stability and full employment. Generally, ?price stability? is given a forward-looking interpretation. Policy should be conducted so that expected medium-term (two- to five-year) inflation is low and stable or, less strictly, so that expected inflation beyond the next few years is low and stable. Households and businesses, too, are generally more interested in where prices are headed than in where they have been.
Economic Letter , Volume 7 , Issue 12 , Pages 1-4

Discussion Paper
How bad was it? The costs and consequences of the 2007–09 financial crisis

The 2007?09 financial crisis was associated with a huge loss of economic output and financial wealth, psychological consequences and skill atrophy from extended unemployment, an increase in government intervention, and other significant costs. Assuming the financial crisis is to blame for these associated ills, an estimate of its cost is needed to weigh against the cost of policies intended to prevent similar episodes. We conservatively estimate that 40 to 90 percent of one year's output ($6 trillion to $14 trillion, the equivalent of $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household) was foregone ...
Staff Papers , Issue Jul

Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains

The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.
Dallas Fed Economics

Blog
The Production Process Drives Fluctuations in Output and Uncertainty

If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Macroeconomic uncertainty—the conditional volatility of the unforecastable component of a future value of a time series—shows considerable variation in the data. A typical assumption in business cycle models is that production is Cobb-Douglas. Under that assumption, this paper shows there is usually little, if any, endogenous variation in output uncertainty, and first moment shocks have similar effects in all states of the economy. When the model departs from Cobb-Douglas production and assumes capital and labor are gross complements, first-moment shocks have state-dependent effects and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009

Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking

Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making.
Dallas Fed Economics

Blog
U.S. Economic Rebound Uneven amid Resurgent Local COVID-19 Outbreaks

A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity appears unlikely until the virus is under control.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?

Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 8 , Pages 1-4

Pandemic Disproportionately Affects Women, Minority Labor Force Participation

Data showing changes in labor force participation rates for several demographics reveal that women with children, especially Black women, have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Jel Classification

C15 2 items

C11 1 items

C32 1 items

C51 1 items

D81 1 items

E32 1 items

show more (8)

FILTER BY Keywords

PREVIOUS / NEXT