Journal Article

Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?


Abstract: Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Part of Series: Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2016-07

Volume: 11

Issue: 8

Pages: 1-4