Exchange rates and U.S. prices
An examination of causality between dollar exchange-rate movements and U.S. price levels as described by the relative purchasing power parity theory, with a discussion of channels of price pressure and of the Hooper-Lowrey method of estimating future trends of the dollar.
A basic analysis of the new protectionism
A discussion of the costs associated with trade restraint, focusing on devices currently used or recently proposed in the United States.
How credible are capital spending surveys as forecasts?
A comparison of the reliability of the Commerce Department's capital spending survey with that of several alternative forecasts.
The decline in U.S. agricultural exports
An analysis of factors that produced a 40 percent drop in U.S. agricultural exports between 1981 and 1986, with a discussion of the potential effects of dollar depreciation and the 1985 Food Security Act.
The steel trigger price mechanism
An examination of the 1978 steel trigger price mechanism, with a description of its operation and economic impact, and a discussion of events that led to its suspension in 1982.
Merchandise trade and the outlook for 1988
An explanation of why current forecasts that call for vast improvements in the U.S. trade balance and real net exports in 1988 may be too optimistic.
Three common misperceptions about foreign direct investment
A repudiation of three common beliefs about foreign direct investment in the United States: that it is the result of the current-account deficit, that it is initiated primarily by the Japanese, and that it will result in the loss of U.S. economic independence.
Solutions to the international debt problem
A general discussion of the nature of the international debt problem and an analysis of a number of proposals for solving it.
A new effective exchange rate index for the dollar and its implications for U.S. merchandise trade
An introduction to a new exchange-rate index to measure the foreign-exchange value of the dollar. The authors develop a model of U.S. merchandise trade, featuring the new index.
Implications of a tariff on oil imports
An examination of the possible positive and negative effects that could result from a hypothetical $10 per barrel increase in tariffs on crude oil and refined oil products.