U.S. dependence on foreign saving
An analysis of the determination of foreign investment in U.S. financial markets and suggestions for reducing dependence on foreign savings inflow.
Should the United States hold foreign currency reserves?
An argument that for countries with well-developed money markets and flexible exchange rates, there is little to be gained from holding a vast foreign exchange portfolio and intervening in the world's currency markets.
The steel trigger price mechanism
An examination of the 1978 steel trigger price mechanism, with a description of its operation and economic impact, and a discussion of events that led to its suspension in 1982.
How credible are capital spending surveys as forecasts?
A comparison of the reliability of the Commerce Department's capital spending survey with that of several alternative forecasts.
Solutions to the international debt problem
A general discussion of the nature of the international debt problem and an analysis of a number of proposals for solving it.
Forecasting turning points with leading indicators
An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.
Exchange rates and U.S. prices
An examination of causality between dollar exchange-rate movements and U.S. price levels as described by the relative purchasing power parity theory, with a discussion of channels of price pressure and of the Hooper-Lowrey method of estimating future trends of the dollar.
Foreign capital inflows: another Trojan horse?
An analysis of the role of foreign investment in U.S. resource allocation, finding that the large influx of foreign capital in the 1980s has been used predominantly to fund domestic investment and consumer investment spending.
Does dollar depreciation matter: the case of auto imports from Japan
The Japanese auto industry is used as a case in point to illustrate some of the ways in which firms operating in export markets cope with exchange-rate changes.
Merchandise trade and the outlook for 1988
An explanation of why current forecasts that call for vast improvements in the U.S. trade balance and real net exports in 1988 may be too optimistic.