Journal Article

Forecasting turning points with leading indicators


Abstract: An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.

Keywords: Economic indicators; Forecasting;

Access Documents

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Economic Commentary

Publication Date: 1989

Issue: Oct

Order Number: 1