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Pricing government credit: a new method for determining government credit risk exposure
A growing debate centers on how best to recognize (and price) government interventions in the capital markets. This study applies a method for estimating and valuing the government?s exposure to credit risk through its loan and guarantee programs. The authors use the mortgage portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as examples of how policymakers could employ this method in pricing the government?s program credit risk. Building on the cost of capital approach, the method captures each program?s possible tail loss over and above its expected value. The authors then use a capital allocation ...
Does it pay to read your junk mail? evidence of the effect of advertising on home equity credit choices
We examine the effect of direct mail (commonly referred to as junk mail) advertising on individual financial decisions by studying consumer choice of home equity debt contracts. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, we find that financial variables underlying the relative pricing of debt contracts are the leading factors explaining consumers home equity debt choice. Furthermore, we also find that the intended use of debt proceeds significantly impacts consumer choice. However, when we study a subset of consumers who received a direct mail solicitation for a particular debt contract ...
GSE debt and the decline in the Treasury debt market
Eviction Risk of Rental Housing: Does It Matter How Your Landlord Finances the Property?
We show, using a stylized model, how the ﬁnancing choice of landlords can impact eviction decisions in rental markets. Since multifamily loans rely on timely cash ﬂows from tenants, strict underwriting factors can increase the chances that landlords are able to weather income shocks. Lender provided relief may create further leeway for landlords to work out a deal with tenants who default on rental payments. Using comprehensive data on nationwide evictions in the U.S. and performance records on multifamily mortgages, we conﬁrm predictions from our model by documenting a negative ...
Determinants of automobile loan default and prepayment
The authors examine whether a borrower?s choice of automobile reveals information about future loan performance. They find that loans on most luxury automobiles have a higher probability of prepayment, while loans on most economy automobiles have a lower probability of default, even when holding traditional risk factors, such as income and credit score, constant.
Earnings and wealth inequality and income taxation: quantifying the tradeoffs of switching to a proportional income tax in the U.S.
This paper quantifies the steady-state aggregate, distributional, and mobility effects of switching the U.S. to a proportional income tax system.
The impact of student loan debt on small business formation
Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy and account for approximately one-half of the private-sector economy and 99% of all businesses. To start a small business, individuals need access to capital. Given the importance of an entrepreneur?s personal debt capacity in financing a startup business, student loan debt, which is difficult to discharge via bankruptcy, can have lasting effects and may have an impact on the ability of future small business owners to raise capital. This study examines the impact of the growth in student debt on net small business formation. We find a ...
Do Minimum Wage Increases Benefit Intended Households? Evidence from the Performance of Residential Leases
Prior studies debating the e?ects of changes to the minimum wage concentrate on impacts on household income and spending or employment. We extend this debate by examining the impact of changes to the minimum wage on expenses associated with shelter, a previously unexplored area. Increases in state minimum wages signi?cantly reduce the incidence of renters defaulting on their lease contracts by 1.29 percentage points over three months, relative to similar renters who did not experience an increase in the minimum wage. This represents 25.7% fewer defaults post treatment in treated states. To ...