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Author:Agarwal, Sumit 

Newsletter
Why aren't banks lending more? the role of commercial real estate

Since August 2007, the U.S. and global financial markets have endured the worst crisis since the Great Depression, accompanied by a deep economic recession. At the height of the crisis, whole segments of financial markets froze and market participants hesitated to engage in transactions with even the most creditworthy counterparties.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The asset-backed securities markets, the crisis and TALF

The authors explain the role of asset-backed securities markets in generating credit and liquidity and how this role was disrupted during the financial crisis. They discuss the implementation of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) and argue that this program helped reestablish the ABS markets and the credit supply. and the reversion to a stable fiscal regime.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 34 , Issue Q IV , Pages 101-115

Working Paper
Why do borrowers make mortgage refinancing mistakes?

Refinancing a mortgage is often one of the biggest and most important financial decisions that people make. Borrowers need to choose the interest rate differential at which to refinance and, when that differential is reached, they need to take the steps to refinance before rates change again. The optimal differential is where the interest saved by refinancing equals the sum of refinancing costs and the option value of refinancing. Using a unique panel data set, we find that approximately 59% of borrowers refinance sub-optimally ? with 52% of the sample making errors of commission (choosing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-02

Working Paper
Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times

How does a bank react when a substantial share of its borrowers suffer a large negative shock? To answer this question we exploit the 2014 collapse of energy prices using the universe of Mexican commercial bank loans. We show that, after the drop in energy prices, banks exposed to the energy sector increased their exposure to these borrowers even more, relaxing credit margins to their larger debtors in the sector. An increase of one standard deviation in a bank's ex-ante exposure to the energy sector increased the loan volume to borrowers in the sector by 18 percent and reduced interest rates ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1288

Working Paper
The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates; evidence from consumer credit data

The authors use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates. They estimate the monthly response of credit card payments, spending, and debt, exploiting the unique, randomized timing of the rebate disbursement. They find that, on average, consumers initially saved some of the rebate by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt. But soon afterward their spending increased, counter to the canonical permanent-income model. Spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-34

Conference Paper
Summary of \"benefits of relationship banking: evidence from consumer credit markets\"

Proceedings , Paper 1079

Working Paper
Peers’ Income and Financial Distress: Evidence from Lottery Winners and Neighboring Bankruptcies

SUPRSEDES WP 18-16 We examine whether relative income differences among peers can generate financial distress. Using lottery winnings as plausibly exogenous variations in the relative income of peers, we find that the dollar magnitude of a lottery win of one neighbor increases subsequent borrowing and bankruptcies among other neighbors. We also examine which factors may mitigate lenders? bankruptcy risk in these neighborhoods. We show that bankruptcy filers obtain more secured but not unsecured debt, and lenders provide additional credit to low-risk but not high-risk debtors. In addition, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-22

Working Paper
Why do banks reward their customers to use their credit cards?

Using a unique administrative level dataset from a large and diverse U.S. financial institution, we test the impact of rewards on credit card spending and debt. Specifically, we study the impact of cash-back rewards on individuals before and during their enrollment in the program. We find that with an average cash-back reward of $25, spending and debt increases by $79 and $191 a month, respectively during the first quarter. Furthermore, we find that cardholders who do not use their card prior to the cash-back program increase their spending and debt more than cardholders with debt prior to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2010-19

Newsletter
Rescuing asset-backed securities markets

On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve unveiled a loan facility to revive the market for asset-backed securities, which had essentially stopped functioning due to the global financial crisis. What are these securities and why is it important for these markets to continue to operate?
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Jan

Journal Article
The asset-backed securities markets, the crisis, and TALF

Credit performs the essential function of moving funds from the savers who want to lend to the investors and consumers who wish to borrow. Under ideal conditions, this process ensures that funds are invested by the most skilled and productive individuals, thus improving efficiency and stimulating growth, and that consumers can get funds when they need them the most to satisfy their consumption needs.
Profitwise , Issue Apr , Pages 8-18

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