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Author:Adrian, Tobias 

Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Case Study from a Tabletop Exercise
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policy makers and academics around the world have advocated the use of prudential tools for macroprudential purposes. This paper presents a macroprudential tabletop exercise that aimed at confronting Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a plausible, albeit hypothetical, macro-financial scenario that would lend itself to macroprudential considerations. In the tabletop exercise, the primary macroprudential objective was to reduce the likelihood and severity of possible future financial disruptions associated with the hypothetical overheating scenario. The scenario provided a path for key macroeconomic and financial variables, which were assumed to be observed through 2016:Q4, as well as the corresponding hypothetical projections for the interval from 2017:Q1 to 2018:Q4. Prudential tools under consideration included capital-based tools such as leverage ratios, countercyclical capital buffers, and sectoral capital requirements; liquidity-based tools such as liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratios; credit-based tools such as caps on loan-to-value ratios and margins; capital and liquidity stress testing; as well as supervisory guidance and moral suasion. In addition, participants were asked to consider using monetary policy tools for financial stability purposes. Under the hypothetical scenario, participants found many prudential tools less attractive due to implementation lags and limited scope of application and favored those deemed to pose fewer implementation challenges, such as stress testing, margins on repo funding, and guidance. Also, monetary policy came more quickly to the fore as a financial stability tool than might have been thought before the exercise. The tabletop exercise abstracted from governance issues within the Federal Reserve System, focusing instead on economic mechanisms of alternative tools.
AUTHORS: Zlate, Andrei; Adrian, Tobias; Yang, Emily; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick
DATE: 2015-09-30

Conference Paper
Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy
AUTHORS: Shin, Hyun Song; Adrian, Tobias
DATE: 2008

Conference Paper
Stock returns and volatility: pricing the long-run and short-run components of market risk
AUTHORS: Rosenberg, Joshua V.; Adrian, Tobias
DATE: 2005

Working Paper
Financial stability monitoring
While the Dodd Frank Act (DFA) broadens the regulatory reach to reduce systemic risks to the U.S. financial system, it does not address some important risks that could migrate to or emanate from entities outside the federal safety net. At the same time, it limits the types of interventions by financial authorities to address systemic events when they occur. As a result, a broad and forward-looking monitoring program, which seeks to identify financial vulnerabilities and guide the development of pre-emptive policies to help mitigate them, is essential. Systemic vulnerabilities arise from market failures that can lead to excessive leverage, maturity transformation, interconnectedness, and complexity. These vulnerabilities, when hit by adverse shocks, can lead to fire sale dynamics, negative feedback loops, and inefficient contractions in the supply of credit. We present a framework that centers on the vulnerabilities that propagate adverse shocks, rather than shocks themselves, which are difficult to predict. Vulnerabilities can emerge in four areas: (1) systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), (2) shadow banking, (3) asset markets, and (4) the nonfinancial sector. This framework also highlights how policies that reduce the likelihood of systemic crises may do so only by raising the cost of financial intermediation in non-crisis periods.
AUTHORS: Adrian, Tobias; Covitz, Daniel M.; Liang, J. Nellie
DATE: 2013

Journal Article
Measuring risk in the hedge fund sector
Recent high correlations among hedge fund returns could suggest concentrations of risk comparable to those preceding the hedge fund crisis of 1998. A comparison of the current rise in correlations with the elevation before the 1998 event, however, reveals a key difference. The current increase stems mainly from a decline in the volatility of returns, while the earlier rise was driven by high covariances - an alternative measure of comovement in dollar terms. Because volatility and covariances are lower today, the current hedge fund environment differs from the 1998 environment.>
AUTHORS: Adrian, Tobias
DATE: 2007-03

Journal Article
The Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility
As liquidity conditions in the "repo market"--the market where broker-dealers obtain financing for their securities--deteriorated following the near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns in March 2008, the Federal Reserve took the step of creating a special facility to provide overnight loans to dealers that have a trading relationship with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Six months later, in the wake of new strains in the repo market, the Fed expanded the facility by broadening the types of collateral accepted for loans. Both initiatives were designed to help restore the orderly functioning of the market and to prevent the spillover of distress to other financial firms.
AUTHORS: Adrian, Tobias; Burke, Christopher R.; McAndrews, James J.
DATE: 2009-08

Journal Article
Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial cycles
A close look at how financial intermediaries manage their balance sheets suggests that these institutions raise their leverage during asset price booms and lower it during downturns - pro-cyclical actions that tend to exaggerate the fluctuations of the financial cycle. The authors of this study argue that the growth rate of aggregate balance sheets may be the most fitting measure of liquidity in a market-based financial system. Moreover, the authors show a strong correlation between balance sheet growth and the easing and tightening of monetary policy.
AUTHORS: Shin, Hyun Song; Adrian, Tobias
DATE: 2008-01

Journal Article
What financing data reveal about dealer leverage
The Federal Reserve collects data on the financing activities of the primary government securities dealers. Some market analysts argue that the data show a considerable rise in dealer leverage in recent years. However, a close reading of the data suggests that dealer borrowing involving fixed-income securities has grown only modestly. Moreover, the increase that has occurred is not clearly associated with greater risk taking.
AUTHORS: Fleming, Michael J.; Adrian, Tobias
DATE: 2005-03

Journal Article
Macroprudential policy: a case study from a tabletop exercise
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policymakers and academics have advocated the use of prudential policy tools to reduce the risks that could inhibit the financial sector?s ability to intermediate credit. The use of such tools in the service of financial stability is often called macroprudential policy. This article describes a ?tabletop? exercise in which Federal Reserve Bank presidents were presented with a hypothetical scenario of overheating markets and asked to consider the effectiveness of macroprudential policy approaches in averting or moderating the financial disruptions that were likely to follow. The prudential tools examined as part of this exercise ranged from countercyclical capital buffers and sectoral capital requirements to liquidity requirements and leverage ratios, and from stress testing to supervisory guidance and moral suasion. In addition, participants were asked to consider the use of monetary policy tools to achieve financial stability ends. The participants found that implementation lags and a narrow scope of application limited the effectiveness of many prudential tools; the tools that posed the fewest implementation challenges, such as stress testing, margins on repo funding, and supervisory guidance, were the most favorably regarded. Interestingly, monetary policy emerged as an attractive supplemental tool for promoting financial stability. The tabletop exercise abstracted from governance issues within the Federal Reserve System, focusing instead on economic mechanisms of alternative tools.
AUTHORS: Adrian, Tobias; Yang, Emily; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick; Zlate, Andrei
DATE: 2017

Journal Article
Shadow banking
The rapid growth of the market-based financial system since the mid-1980s has changed the nature of financial intermediation. Within the system, ?shadow banks? have served a critical role, especially in the run-up to the recent financial crisis. Shadow banks are financial intermediaries that conduct maturity, credit, and liquidity transformation without explicit access to central bank liquidity or public sector credit guarantees. This article documents the institutional features of shadow banks, discusses the banks? economic roles, and analyzes their relation to the traditional banking system. The authors argue that an understanding of the ?plumbing? of the shadow banking system is an important underpinning for any study of financial system interlinkages. They observe that while many current and future reform efforts are focused on remediating the excesses of the recent credit bubble, increased capital and liquidity standards for depository institutions and insurance companies are likely to heighten the returns to shadow banking activity. Thus, shadow banking is expected to be a significant part of the financial system, although very likely in a different form, for the foreseeable future.
AUTHORS: Pozsar, Zoltan; Boesky, Hayley; Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam B.
DATE: 2013-12

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