Report

Pricing the term structure with linear regressions

Abstract: We estimate the time series and cross section of bond returns by way of three-stage ordinary least squares, which we label dynamic Fama-MacBeth regressions. Our approach allows for estimation of models with a large number of pricing factors. Even though we do not impose yield cross-equation restrictions in the estimation, we show that our bond return regressions generate a term structure of interest rates with small yield errors when compared with commonly reported specifications. We uncover specifications that give rise to lower pricing errors than do commonly advocated specifications, both in- and out-of-sample. Efficiency can be obtained through the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator.

Keywords: Rate of return; Bonds; Interest rates; Econometric models; Regression analysis;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Part of Series: Staff Reports

Publication Date: 2008

Number: 340