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Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-19)
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. (2026-03-23)
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2607

Working Paper
FinTech Lending, Social Networks and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2022-03-25)
One of the main channels through which monetary policy stimulus affects the real economy is mortgage borrowing. This channel, however, is weakened by frictions in the mortgage market. The rapid growth of financial technology-based (FinTech) lending tends to ease these frictions, given the higher quality services provided under this new lending model. This paper establishes that the role of FinTech lending in the monetary policy transmission is further amplified by consumers’ social networks. I provide empirical evidence for this network effect using county-level data and novel ...
Working Papers , Paper 2203

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Plante, Michael D.; Kilian, Lutz (2020-05-19)
The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.
Dallas Fed Economics

CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase
Zhou, Xiaoqing (2020-05-26)
Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing; Hur, Sewon; Mertens, Karel; Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Mau, Ron (2025-09-30)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024, which triggered widespread discussions about its macroeconomic impact, particularly on inflation. To determine the impact of the immigration surge, we first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. We then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity. We find that the supply- and demand-side effects of the immigration surge roughly cancel ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
Cheremukhin, Anton; Wilson, Daniel J.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2026-03-31)
For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.
Dallas Fed Economics

Strength in consumer spending does not necessarily imply low probability of recession
Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-01-02)
Consumption was not a main driver of GDP declines in previous recessions, and a recession is not necessarily preceded by declines in consumer spending.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers
Kartashova, Katya; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2022-05-06)
One of the most important channels through which monetary policy affects the real economy is changes in mortgage rates. This paper studies the effects of mortgage rate changes resulting from monetary policy shifts on homeowners’ spending, debt repayment and defaults. The Canadian institutional setting facilitates the design of identification strategies for causal inference, since the vast majority of mortgages in the country experience predetermined, periodic and automatic contract renewals with the mortgage rate reset based on the prevailing market rate. This allows us to exploit ...
Working Papers , Paper 2206

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