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Discussion Paper
Convenience Yield as a Driver of r*
The natural rate of interest, or r*, corresponds to the short-term real interest rate that is consistent with full employment and price stability, after all temporary shocks have abated. The most popular framework to estimate r* is Laubach and Williams (2003) and Holston, Laubach, and Williams (2017, 2023) (henceforth HLW).
Working Paper
Bubbles and Stagnation
This paper studies the consequences of asset bubbles for economies that are vulnerable to persistent stagnation. Stagnation is the result of a shortage of assets that creates an oversupply of savings and puts downward pressure on the level of interest rates. Once the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds, the real rate cannot fully adjust downward, forcing output to fall instead. In such context, bubbles are useful as they expand the supply of assets, absorb excess savings and raise the natural interest rate - the real rate that is compatible with full employment - crowding in ...