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Urban and Regional Migration Estimates, Third Quarter 2023 Update
This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q3 for all series. Migration estimates enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
The Demographics of Urban Migrants Since the Pandemic
The postpandemic movement of people out of urban neighborhoods is speeding up changes in the age, credit risk, income, home ownership, and ethnic mix of these neighborhoods. Migration has been consistent with patterns in place before the pandemic, but at higher levels.
How Successful Is Your Region at Retaining Domestic Migrants?
For regions in the Fourth District and across the United States, this District Data Brief analyzes how well each region retains domestic migrants, or those who move in from other parts of the country. It also addresses the extent to which retention rates are associated with population growth.
Journal Article
The Evolution of Household Leverage during the Recovery
Recent research has shown that geographic areas that experienced greater household deleveraging during the recession also experienced relatively severe economic contractions and slower recoveries. This analysis explores geographic variations in household debt over the past recession and recovery. It fi nds that regions that had very high household leverage at the start of the recession have shifted back toward national norms, while the variation of leverage within metro areas has maintained steady relationships with neighborhood characteristics such as location,demographics, and the age of ...
Journal Article
Making financial markets safer for consumers: lessons from consumer goods markets and beyond
In the wake of the mortgage meltdown, policymakers are discussing how best to protect consumers in financial product markets.
Working Paper
Premium Municipal Bonds and Issuer Fiscal Distress
Economic theory suggests that bond issuers of lower credit quality or higher opacity should be more likely to issue bonds with premium coupons (higher coupon rates relative to yields at issuance). Using a comprehensive data set of municipal bonds issued between 1992 and 2012 by more than 21,000 issuers, we show that this has not been the case until the early 2000s. We examine what changed in this market to bring it into greater alignment with economic principles. We argue that the Government Accounting Standards Board?s Statement 34 that required the use of accrual accounting rules in ...
Urban and Regional Migration Estimates
This District Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?” with data for 2024:Q1 for all series. The first series measures net migration of people to and from the urban neighborhoods of major metro areas. The second series covers all neighborhoods but breaks down net migration to other regions by four region types: (1) high-cost metros, (2) affordable, large metros, (3) midsized metros, and (4) small metros and rural areas. The metro area definitions used here are for combined statistical areas, which ...
Report
Fourth District Almanac 2026
To explain how the regional economies within our District have evolved over more than a century, the Cleveland Fed's regional analysis group compiles and publishes the Fourth District Almanac. This publication offers a collection of charts and visualizations representing economic data covering the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle West Virginia.
Working Paper
Private-activity municipal bonds: the political economy of volume cap allocation
State governments allocate authority, under a federally imposed cap, to issue tax-exempt bonds that fund ?private activities? such as industrial expansion, student loans, and low-income housing. This paper presents political economy models of the allocation process and an empirical analysis. Due to an idiosyncrasy of the tax code, the annual per capita volume cap varies widely across states. I estimate that, on average, there is an additional $0.80 per capita per year of borrowing for each additional dollar per capita of volume cap. This confirms that the cap is a binding constraint in most ...
Boomerang Migration: Which Regions Have the Most, and Can It Make a Difference?
This District Data Brief analyzes how well regions in the Fourth District and across the United States draw back native residents who previously moved away. It also examines the extent to which these “boomerang migrants” contribute to the total populations of their respective regions.