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Discussion Paper
How Do Principal Trading Firms and Dealers Trade around FOMC Statement Releases?
This FEDS Note examines how different types of market participants transact in the Treasury market in the periods immediately following statement releases at the conclusion of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. We compare intermediation patterns following scheduled statement releases with those following an unscheduled statement release.
Journal Article
In Optimism We Trust? Explaining the Disconnect between Post-Election Optimism and Own-Firm Expectations
We randomly split the CFO survey panel into two separate surveys around the 2024 US elections to discern whether the results of the elections had any impact on financial decision makers' expectations. Respondents to the post-election survey reported sharply higher optimism about the US economy and an improved macroeconomic outlook relative to the pre-election responses. In contrast, own-firm optimism and revenue growth expectations were not meaningfully changed between the two surveys. Among many possible reasons for this disconnect, we highlight the expected impact of the new ...
Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives
We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in ...